This graphic was done to compare their current support from the last two general elections:
edit: that didn’t work, but the article is worth a read.
The full article is here:
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There is of course an element of that and that is the annoying bit that you have two “progressive” parties who can’t get together to stop Reform taking seats. I hope they learn from this and get it sorted before the next General Election…
In most cases though, Reform have taken around 50% or more of the votes..
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What’s going to be very interesting (horrifying) over the next stretch is how these councils actually operate. I’m seeing lots of examples where there’s not going to be a clear majority.
Effective governance is obviously far more difficult than effective opposition, so gonna be intersting to see if they can all play nice…
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Just had a quick peak at the Guardian’s live election page at the results declared so far - I’m surprised Greens are only up by about 20 odd seats. Reform are up by around 270 so having the biggest impact on the night.
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Yeah, that is striking. Is this a case where the voting numbers are lower than in previous years as Labour voters stay home for example?
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That’s just a feature of the FPTP system. I’m interested to see how the votes pan out in Scotland and, in particular, Wales, because they both use a proportional system. The Welsh PR system is now a particularly pure one.
FPTP systems are only really suited to two party systems. Even then, the US has a really messed up version of it.
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If Kent, Worcestershire and Warwickshire are any gauge, they won’t. But that doesn’t seem to matter when you look at what is happening from last night.
People tend to treat the local elections as a sort of protest vote. Which is a bit stupid as they tend to deal with matters that effect people on a daily basis. At least I suppose that all those rubber dinghies full of refugees landing at Wigan Pier must have been a big deal.
I think this is why the Greens have done well in Birkenhead over the last decade or so. They address issues like the local park being vandalised, fly tipping, or the bins not being picked up. Whilst having a policy on Gaza is going to appeal to a segment of the electorate, I can’t see it being a priority for someone who just landed in A&E because a pothole sent them arse-over-tit on the handlebars of their bike.
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Sky’s breakdown a bit earlier today. It covers Wigan as discussed above but also a part of Worcestershire. Worcestershire is already under Reform control and a bit of a shit show. Covers your point perfectly, people aren’t making the connection.
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Again, you accuse me of politics from the position of misrepresenting something I said months ago to try and undermine a point made more recently.
Me saying farmers should pay inheritance tax is no more me being anti-farmer than me saying nurses should pay inheritance tax makes me anti-nurse.
If you have to resort to misrepresenting arguments to score cheap points, then seriously, don’t fucking bother. It’s a waste of everyone’s time.
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From the experience of having lived with a Reform led local authority for the last year or so, the good people of Wigan are in for a rough few years.
I hope the deterioration of their local authority provisions will be worth striking a blow against the waves of immigration flooding the north west (not that the local authority has much control of this). But it’s not all bad news. Maybe they’ll spend £70,000 putting flags up, like they did near me.
Meanwhile yesterday Farage was expressly and directly threatening that once in power he will put asylum processing centres and immigration centres in any areas that vote Green. Something that is against electoral law.
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The Reform vote in these election is unlikely to be a protest vote and may actually represent a trend that will continue to the next cycle. I wonder if this (perversely) is drawing energy from what has gone on in the US. Maybe people want the ICE equivalent here, reduction of students coming in and, of course, to finally build that wall.
It might not be directly, but those choosing not to vote, or switching away from Labour to one of the other parties are usually doing so as a protest and that helps Reform.
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That will be a part of it - there are obvious sharing of identities between Reform, the right wing in the US and across Europe and there are plenty of reports of them all working together.
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Who, me?
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I am extremely nervous of the Wales vote.
I had hoped that a Labour Westminster government would actually invest heavily in Wales to earn more support. They’ve actually done the opposite, and they will pay for it. Even if Plaid win the Senedd I can see that trend continuing in some form of twisted punishment.
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I think when coming into power they intended to, along with the rest of the UK, but have been the victim of circumstance where they couldn’t build up enough economic headroom to spend more.
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While that’s true, they have flatly refused to consider things like policing devolution, HS2 funding, Barnett formula reforms, and borrowing powers for example.
I don’t know about the policing, but I can see how the others you mention would be an issue for the UK government’s finances (Barnett formula changes would likely involve higher payments to Wales, HS2 cost over runs in England has been somewhat of a nightmare and borrowing powers would probably impact UK government’s ability to borrow (or at least the cost at which it wishes to do so).