UK Politics Thread (Part 4)

I’m 46 and the only half decent Tory Prime Minister I’ve seen was John Major, and he was roundly set upon by the party for not being enough of a bastard.

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Maybe not. You’ve seen more than most… :wink:

I would say the UK is no longer paying the Truss premium, which is a fairly positive development given the short time frame.

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I sadly think he is a very relevant figure, even in the UK. His social power there is far less than in the US, but he successfully influences many Norwegians too (as well as Germans, he makes waves there too), including those without twitter accounts. He is the most successful entrepenaur of our generation, he has very many who look up to him or at least respect him. All over the world.
His opinions carries weight, unfortunately.

Perhaps the best antidote is actually reading his twitter rants, many of his more sensible and ethically not broken, admirerers don’t, and some of them would probably be uncomfortable if they got the entite picture regarding that man.

But he is not to be underestimated, at least I would not dare to do. He has too much respect and money to ignore.

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Empty vessels…

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But that’s what I was hinting at, Rambler. Most people are not interested in politics and it is these people who primarily look up to him due to his visions, his success and so on. Those people don’t read the tendentious trend of loathsome ideas and rants he posts on twitter and his Anti Woke Crusade and support for Hard Nationalists. They dont have or care about the full picture. They don’t care about politics that much, so admire him and respect him for different reasons. And often, they will at least give this ultra successful entepenaur an ear.

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People sure can be, or appear to be.

Ah, a post which I now read and that is music to my ears.

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In case you missed it, there was a very interesting article I reposted on that exact subject:

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Will read. Just a bit impractical right now, as I am waiting for my car to finish its check up (EU control), so I am just wasting time reading a book I brought and then taking breaks to write my golden nuggets to you (I take my duty seriously, doing my best to raise morale and everything!)

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There’s also quite a good opinion piece in today’s NYT about just how odious , and ignorant ( ‘he’s also called for the jailing of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and urged Britain’s king to dissolve Parliament and call new elections, something the monarch cannot do’.) this fucker is.

Free to read : https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/06/opinion/elon-musk-britain-sex-trafficking.html?unlocked_article_code=1.nU4.VTp0.S_3N4DZxqEi8&smid=url-share

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Agree we can’t ignore but that doesn’t mean cosying up/fearing him. Progressive leaders need to mobilise and come together to fight the billionaire facist power swoop that’s happening around the world, before it’s too late

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The data in the US election was startling regarding this. People who don’t actively consume news right now encounter thoughts about it nonetheless and do so at levels we’ve never seen. That would not be bad if it wasnt for the reality that with the way the information environment is right now the polarization of that info is very consistent and seemingly convincing.

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As the youngsters would say these days…WTAF!!

How to make yourself even more unpopular in one easy step.

What mammoth bell end signed off on that?

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Who knew there were people out there who aren’t frothing like drooling idiots about the state of play right now??

None of this is easy. Ten years ago, the markets were saying loudly “borrow and spend”. George Osborne and David Cameron ignored them, and we are still paying the price for that catastrophic failure. Today’s risks and opportunities are quite different, but Reeves and Keir Starmer, if they hold their nerve, can still avoid another lost decade.

Can’t see any of this analysis resonating with the dolts braying like lobotomised donkeys, but one can hope…

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Yeah, but the author is a professor at KCL and we all know not to trust experts.

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The discouraging thing for Labour has to be they are no longer paying the ‘moron premium’ (aka the Truss premium), but global interest rates have pushed up borrowing costs to about the same level. The next Treasury auction is going to be absolutely critical. The UK could be right back in the soup, or clear a major hurdle and on a course of rebuilding confidence.

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Smug fuckers, those economists.

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Any thoughts on how far down the road confidence could be, assuming things go well for them?

The key is returning to economic growth. The situation reminds me of my time in Ottawa with the early Chretien Liberals after the 1993 election, when we happily flooded into the ministerial offices intent on turning on the spending taps and making the country a better place the very next day. Once we looked at the books, there was a ‘that cannot be right, holy fuck’ moment, and it gradually became clear that in fact we were there to administer the most draconian austerity program the country had ever seen. For two years, people around Finance and some of PMO were despised, even and especially by other Liberals who saw it all as a betrayal. It was not until year 3 that the Government could actually commit resources to other priorities, but we were in surplus by the next election.

The comparison only goes so far though, and the differences are worth thinking about.

  1. Our Tories were not your Tories. Partisans will tell you otherwise, but when the Tories came to power in 1984, the books were a mess. Canada was spending more on programs than it was collecting in taxes, so we were borrowing to pay interest and then some. By 1993, they had at least produced a surplus against program spending, though we were still borrowing to pay interest. By contrast, your Tories have made the situation worse year over year for five years…and then the pandemic hit.

  2. Even though we are all of course prescient geniuses who knew the timing would work out perfectly…we were lucky. The 90s turnaround simply would not have happened without a massive increase in trade with the US (courtesy of the Tories we all hated, natch), and that was due in large measure to very favourable macroeconomic conditions there. We improved our trading relationship with our largest trading partner, which happened to hit a sustained boom right about then. By contrast, the UK (/checks notes) incinerated exactly the kind of open trading relationship that was critical with (/checks notes again) your largest trading partner, which is currently facing macroeconomic challenges.

  3. As fucked as we were in 1993, we actually had more wiggle room than the UK right now. Tory cuts to spending were not as deep as we all complained they were ( so we cut 'em), and there was about 5% less of the economy already in government hands. The fact that the UK now has about 50% of the economy in government hands yet so many services now seem to be at barebones levels is staggering. From the top level of the government down, it has to produce despair. If you take more resources from the private sector, you squeeze growth. If you take resources from the public sector, well, another hospital ER has a leaky roof.

So, given that it took from 1994 (1993 was the year given over to the denial-anger-bargaining-depression cycle), and 1996 was the first year where there was anything but cuts - all in an environment that was more favourable in hindsight than it felt at the time - I think Starmer’s Labour will do very well to actually see any ability to do what they want in this election cycle. There is a very good chance they will end up doing all the hard and necessary work, and then get punished for it. Some new spendthrift from the right schools will come in for the Tories, and get to look brilliant for another cycle before the shine wears off.

That is a damned depressing place for a government to be - I could only hack it until early 1996.

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