Does all this mean Burnham will be inheriting a black hole in the ecomomy?
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Thanks. Agreed on the job facing Burnham. I questioned it a couple of weeks ago. Why would anyone want to jump in on this now? It just looks like professional suicide to me.
Genuine question, do you foresee a good time to jump in anytime soon?
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Similar mindset to July 2024?
Surely canāt be as bad as what Iām replacing, can I?
I support it depends whether someone is seeking to gain power or take responsibility.
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That depends. There is a lot being done that isnāt being talked about or visible yet. A new PM may be able to use that without the negativity that surrounded the current one.
If the Iran situation finds some sort of holding resolution, then Burnham (assuming it is he) may find himself with more space in which he can manouvre as inflation/ interest rates are still expected to drop next year.
I donāt think Starmer has been that bad at all, with more progress being made than people are willing to credit his government for.
Someone like Burnham though offers some sort of reset on expectations and internal relations, while potentially benefitting from things already in progress.
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No, I donāt think weāve hit bottom yet.
I donāt disagree. I think thereās a whole load of stuff that the government has been doing and we just dont hear about it. However, the concerns I have are possible hurdles that are coming over the horizon include in no particular order.
- the sell off on SpaceX (August 11th)
- the AI bubble burst
- the possibility of oil reserves running dry
- impact of Super el Nino.
None of this stuff is in the UKās control.
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This is intentional levity right?
For the most part I think he has been quite competent. However, he has been terrible at the political side and owning the narrative.
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Pardon?
By reserves, I mean stuff thatās been extracted and stored.
I know what reserves are.
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I donāt there is a lot anyone can do faced with the onslaught of negativity, misinformation and contrarianism that Social Media fosters.
Starmer is routinely described as the worst Prime Minister ever, which is an absolute fucking joke. He is leagues better that each of the five Tory clowns who preceded him.
Burnham is a lot more media savvy, but I would not be surprised if in a couple of months, when he hasnāt miraculously turned the country around, while lowering everybodyās taxes and erasing the national debt, he isnāt being described in similar terms to Starmer.
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Then Iāve misunderstood your question.
Yeah, I think Burnham is screwed. Starmerās time was under intense constraint, but only tipped into crisis in the last six months. Burnham is taking over that crisis. He needs to cut government expenses and/or increase revenue, at a time when there is already huge pressure on program spending and a sluggish economy that needs investment. As soon as he even looks at the āincrease revenueā part, he becomes an easy target.
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He has to solve āimmigrationā too. And very loudly so that everyone is aware of it.
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I have never understood why there is such resistance to increasing income tax..
If I were PM I would speak to the nation and lay it on the line. Cards on the table, if you want a better NHS, more money for schools and funding for defence, then we all have to pay more tax. We live in extremely uncertain times and it is your choiceā¦then call a general election to get a mandate..
Pay up or shut upā¦
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You said the UK has no control over oil reserve levels.
I am not sure income tax is the place to start in the UK.
Income tax already accounts for about 30% of government revenue, versus about 25% as the OECD average. VAT is right around average. Social security contributions are the real standout where the UK is well below the OECD average, which has been the case since about 1970. Having pensions as a call on national revenue net of contributions has been a chronic problem that no government has had the courage to take on.
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