Trump 16 could not be fit into the narratives our understandings of elections are based on and so the press and talking heads missed his rise and misunderstood what they were seeing
Trump 20 was different than 16 and again the story was missed by trying to apply an understanding of Trump 16 to that election despite not having a good understanding of what Trump 16 was anyway (see the interest in Hillbilly Elegy)
This entire election has no comparison and so again attempts to understand through the prism of what was happened before is a fools game (or at least is if the game was based on accurately portraying the landscape and using that to project what is likely to happen).
I am absolutely convinced that a significant part of the meanness inherent in the American conservative movement is the inability of American āConservativeā men to deal with their feelings for other men.
Another reminder, when you hear Republicans respond to the shooting on saturday by immediately criticizing Democratic rhetoric and demanding they take it down, donāt be a mark and believe they are being sincereā¦
Nothing is more inflammatory than winding up a RW base with well documented militia fever dreams, by insinuating that your political opponent is behind the assassination attempt despite there being no evidence at all to point to this.
Not just a name, but, especially when aligned with Pelosi as he seemingly is on this, has the potential to massively impede campaign funding coming into the presidential campaign from CA.
They canāt go past Harris at this stage unless she were to step aside, which seems very unlikely.
She would wipe the floor with Trump in a debate one would imagine. She would be hoped to galvanise the black and female vote, but thatās not a given.
Itās all in the balance.
I donāt follow US politics all that closely, and what little time I spend on social media I donāt see or read much about Harris. How good is she in debates?
Part of the appeal of Biden, at least last time round, was that it was thought he could bring across votes from white conservatives. Is Harris likely to be able to bring/keep them on board or is the potential black/female vote great enough to offset any other voter groups that may switch this time round?
You need @Limiescouse to answer those questions, but itās probably fair to say that the vast majority have already made up their minds. Those who have been concerned about Bidenās age would come back in play.
Biden has slightly opened the door to stepping down by saying that he might in a medical emergency.
That means a doctor just has to advise it and he could leave with honour.
It isnt the question you asked, but as has already been said, I dont see a way around it going to Harris in relatively uncontested fashion should Biden remove himself. It is the best response to the āwe voted in the primaryā argument (a bad argument, but a popular one among the Ridinā with Biden crew), goes some way to retaining an incumbency advantage that allows her to claim Bidenās wins as hers, and avoids a scenario where a contest creates even bigger rifts within the coalition
Assuming it is her, then she can absolutely can win. Biden skeptics look at his positive record and bad polls and see a race that needs to be changed. Sure, āeveryone knows the polls have been badā, but these polls have had a remarkably low level of volatility, which increases their predictive value. That means if the strategy is to accept the polls and expect them to be wrong, we are now in the territory of requiring historic levels of polling error to get the win. Most Biden skeptics were more waiting and hoping that once he started campaigning in earnest he would do so in a way that moved the polls, but the debate performance and everything that has come since has largely eliminated hope that he is capable of that. The Trump conviction, the entire Supreme court session, the debateā¦these were all prime opportunities to do something that moved the needle and he completely whiffed on them. For as long as US campaigns are there are surprisingly few opportunities like that to do something substantial, so where does their team think the improvement is going to come from? People can throw out theories for why Harrisā liabilities are a bigger risk, and they may be right, but it at least does something to change a race that needs to see some change that Biden is just clearly incapable of delivering.
I am of the opinion (very possibly delusional), that Harris is now not just the obvious choice, but the best opponent to put up against Trump given the issues in this race. 2020 was a disaster for her because with the rapid shift in the discourse about policing, the ālaneā for a prosecutor disappeared and once she ran away from that part of her record she had nothing else to call upon that differentiated her from everyone else in a crowded field. This time around the race seems perfectly suited to a prosecutor. And for whatever faults people may perceive of her, when it comes to the sort of public argumentation that this campaign needs - against Trumpās criminality, against the entire GOPās record on abortion, against their supposed love for law and order - she is genuinely excellent at that. Iād recommend searching youtube for her performances at various Senate hearings to get a sense of what sheās hopefully be able to do on the campaign trail.
I think Kamala Harris would easily win a debate against Felon Don.
Flip-flop Vance - I hate Trump, heās Hitlerā¦ oh no, wait a minute, I love him! - will put up a fight, as he is a Yale law grad with the gift of the gab. Still, Harris would more than hold her own against him, but hopefully their paths wonāt cross as perhaps Kamala Harris will be sparring above Vanceās pay grade, if Biden ends up stepping down.
