538 has Harris ahead in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.
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Timely reminder that thereâs lots of work to do.
I think abortion will see Trump lose more ground, and then hopefully Harris has a good debate and opens a decent gap.
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Itâs a weird period for the model. It factors in a decent bump from the convention for Harris which has basically cancelled out a lot of her recent polling improvement because the model sees those as expected in this immediate post convention period. If she sustains these polls for another month his model will tilt back to a 5 point Harris advantage.
Biggest issue is we just donât have polling from PAâŚand the only way PA is not the tipping point is if Harris wins in an unexpected landslide.
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Itâs been said a thousand times, but how is it still this close?
Almost daily, Trump or Vance, or both, come out with some awful, crass or stupid statement revealing their unfitness for government, but his support remains steady and Harris canât seem to build a lead.
Itâs unbelievable.
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Because the US basically breaks Dem 35 % , Rep 35% and the rest âindependentsâ who , as yet , are still uncommitted.
Check this latest gem from President ShitferBrains from a rally last night ;
During his 90-minute speech in Johnstown, Mr. Trump coined a term for his meandering off-the-cuff remarks â and insisted that they were strategic.
âYou know, I do the weave,â he said. âYou know what âthe weaveâ is? Iâll talk about like nine different things that they all come back brilliantly together. And itâs like â and friends of mine that are like English professors, they say, âItâs the most brilliant thing Iâve ever seen.ââ
Is there any end to his genius ?
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But heâs at a steady 44%.
How can anyone be uncommitted after the events of the last decade?
How can anyone be unaware of Jan 6th? Who doesnât have an opinion on DT by now?
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Thatâs why I apostrophised âindependentsâ. I suspect the real number to be closer to 10%. You only have to observe so called independents on here and elsewhere to quickly realise they are nothing of the sort.
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âindependentsâ â too stubborn to admit that theyâre exactly the kind of person they detest, voting for the person and things that they detest.
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[quote=âpeterroberts, post:3589, topic:4044, full:trueâ]
Check this latest gem from President ShitferBrains from a rally last night ;
âYou know, I do the weave,â he said. âYou know what âthe weaveâ is?
.
.
.
Yeah we do⌠it is flapping about on your ginormous fuckin head :0)
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My favourite bit was ; âfriends of mine that are like English professorsâ ⌠meaning they are absolutely nothing like English professors.
Virtually everything that comes out of his mouth is an invention or a lie.
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The shit never ends,it seems,first ivanka has employed millions of people and wind is responsible for people not eating bacon.
The wind emanating from him might be a factor,though.
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That much? I feel itâs more like 45%+45%+10%
The Bush years saw a substantial drop off people who were registered as republican, but as @redalways says this didnât really change the voting behavior of the majority of newly listed âindependentsâ
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US Republicans are having fun with the fact âHarris Walzâ is almost, but not quite, an anagram of âSharia Lawâ. Incidentally, âTrump Vanceâ actually is an anagram of âCunt Revampâ.
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What is the point of being registered as an independent? I always thought the idea behind these was like being a member of the Labour Party or whatever, and you got to select candidates.
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Yeah, it has little meaningful impact and so it should be seen as the closest thing to a protest these people were willing to do. Mainly it allows them to maintain their self identification as a principled person who doesnât just blindly follow the party line (while still always voting straight party line ticket once the election comes around)
Interestingly though the Trump years have seen the republicans win back a lot of gains in party registries they lost in the late 00s-early 10s
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As in winning back former voters or just energising new ones?
% of registered voters registered as republican. I think it is largely a reflection of new voter registration, which is probably combination of activating previously low propensity voters and young men who have newly become able to vote but I havenât seen a detailed breakdown to confirm that
Itâs a bit of an academic thing, but does impact how data on polling of independents should be interpreted. It is too often equated to swing voters when for over a decade that is simply not who independents were. They were mostly partisans embarrassed by their preferred party but still with every intention to vote for them, even if they had to put in a theatrical performance to claim the Dems forced them into their position
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Donât know what people were expecting. Harris has managed a fairly drastic turnaround (given how polarised and cemented the electorate seems to be) in a very short time, complete change of narrative, more states are in play again, got a few things very right and hasnât made any significant mistakes so far. Close to a realistic best case scenario at this point imo. If anything it proves how weak Bidenâs position was.
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