US Election 2024

That’s a democratic moose if I have ever seen one.

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Trump, who has spent years claiming that our high interest rates mean the economy is bad and he will ensure the rates get lowered, argued yesterday the rate cut means the economy is doing poorly.

He then in the very next sentence claimed he would get the rates even lower.

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I responded to this saying the data in PA are very confusing as there is so much positive data in favour of Harris (approval ratings, issue polling, voter registration) and it just was not being reflected in the voting intention polling. The last 2 days has seen a collection of new polls that might indicate this has finally cracked

https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1836763349217915321

https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1836726771460301039

Up by 4 in PA and only down by 4 in Iowa are the results of a candidate who gets 300+ in the EC.

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Would be far different circumstances were Kamala to win both the popular, and electoral votes decidedly. Can’t see any “legal” maneuvering around that which wouldn’t end badly for many, justices included.

There is likely a winning margin above which these tactics wont work, but we’re talking about preventing counts in key counties that are likely going to be required for Harris to tot up a big enough win to get there.

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Particularly interesting (encouraging) is Nate Cohn’s explainer that their ‘high quality’ polls , although showing parity nationally , give Harris a distinct edge across the rust belt.

“What’s clear is that recent results from higher-quality polls are very different from those of the last presidential election. If true, it would suggest that Mr. Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College, relative to the popular vote, has declined significantly since 2020.”

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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/trump-springfield-ohio.html

Wonder if these despicable weirdos will visit my town to see the impact I’ve had.

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If you look carefully you will see that the moose is over to the right. Clearly Republican :joy:

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Alright so on one story arc we have despicable arch villains planning on taking over the election be nefarious means. On the other a Moose that can’t decide which way it’ll vote.

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Whereas this is clearly a Canadian moose, just watching the neighbours and saying ‘wtf’ under her breath.

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Heyshuh, come get yur chirn :joy::joy::joy:

https://x.com/canaansdad1987/status/1836666514780336578?s=61&t=VxX1vHU3NOwwNhlbyICG-g

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The concern is the timetable. Bills that pass don’t become law in Maine until 90 days after passage unless a resolution for expedited implementation is passed in conjunction with a 2/3 super majority. We are now passed the 90 day mark to get a new law be applied to this election and the Dems dont have a super majority.

It’s incredible that shit like this could be legal, but it seemingly is. The result is even is Harris makes a clean sweep of WI, MI, and PA, there is a viable/likely map that leaves her stuck on 269

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https://x.com/KremlinTrolls/status/1837109910552617243
:thinking:

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I am going to deploy this strategy against @Sithbare

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I thought you already did

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Interesting take from the good Nate

https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1837106408849862922

  1. You cannot just adjust today’s polls for yesterday’s error. If you could do that reliably then polls would have 0 error.
  2. While superficially these polls look like the 2020 pre-election polls possibly indicating an under estimation of Trump’s support, the underlying data suggests not. Trump is doing significantly better in these polls with the white working class who were largely responsible for the error in 2020. That suggests it is unlikely support in this demo is still being under counted.

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Yet, the moose is running away from a auto mechanic, and as we all know, auto mechanic’s are Republican and all Democrats are distancing themselves from Republicans. Furthermore, Republicans are represented by elephants, which moose fear, and are attracted to donkey’s, which they find attractive due to the fact that you are what you identify as. :confused: :exploding_head:

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I am going to retriple my effort.

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He cant ignore years of polling errors and think all of a sudden this one is going to be more accurate. It works either way. It could be a worse error for, or against. It only highlights that poll are slightly unreliable, or extremely unreliable in swing states due to the tight margins, and by ignoring history, he is just trying to pigeon hole his personal desire. Anyway, how is a polling error created? Past history (I dont know the answer)?