US Election 2024

Fundamentally, there are two kinds of error, systematic bias and simply random.

If you draw 500 people from a population of 1,000,000 where ~2000 believe the moon is made of cheese and the US government has been hiding that, you would expect to find one respondent who believes the moon is made of cheese. If you happen to draw none or 3, that is a form of polling error, which is what produces the confidence intervals we see. Now, it is possible that you could draw 250, massively skewing your perception of the underlying population, but the probabilities are exceedingly low. That sort of error is just in there.

Now, where systemic bias comes in is if I take that sample of 500 at a convention for conspiracy theorists.

For pollsters, the problem comes in when they attempt to draw a random sample in good faith, but for some reason the sample is not as random as they would hope. But there is very little they can do to correct that.

There are a couple of theories around why polls have struggled (though it is important to note they quite simply have not struggled nearly as much as the popular wisdom would have it). Sample bias around the emergence of cell phones (landlines used to be the standard, which itself produced a known skew), and with Trump an additional factor has been posited - that some of his supporters actually deliberately misrepresent their preferences in some poll mechanisms.

3 Likes

Yeah, I think Nate Cohn is good without your input

He isnt

Exactly

It reinforces that they are not supposed to be used as a predictive tool, but a descriptive one. But Nate knows that

He isnt.

LOL. Not an unreasonable question for a lay person, but that is amusing coming after a thesis on how Nate Cohn is making a bunch if mistakes in his analysis.

4 Likes

4 Likes

Said ignoring, bunch of mistake?

Brilliant, go pat yourself on the back for this valuable contribution, or maybe we could change this thread to an exclusive Harris/Democrat circle jerk off, is that what you prefer?

The more popular explanation for the missing Trump voter is that they refuse to participate for ideological reasons in ways other voter archetypes dont, which makes it near impossible to get a representative sample.

You or I may get missed in polling because when our phone rings and caller ID identifies it as a survey call we refuse to pick up, but this is non-ideological and fairly even distributed across the political spectrum. They are missing because they are driven by anti establishment mindset that makes them say “fuck you” to anyone resembling part of civic society. This is almost exlcusive found among Trump supporters. In your analogy, it means there might be 2000 moon is made of cheesers, but 1900 of them are ideologically committed to refusing to talk to you. Any effort to adjust for that mathematically is just guess work, which is largely why some of the groups who came closer to the outcome in 2020 are not any more likely to get it right in 2024. Because if they got it right they did for the wrong reason and that is not replicateable.

The argument Nate is making in the tweet I posted is that it is pretty much exclusively the white working class who make up this “fuck the system” archetype. While it is a definitely a subset within the WWC, his argument is that if your polls have Trump significantly ahead with WWC of where he was in 20 then it is very difficult to see how you can still be undercounting them to the same sort of degree as occurred in 20.

4 Likes

Stop posting snarky drivel, and I may.

1 Like

I don’t know what this is supposed to mean, but you made a series of criticisms of Nate’s comments opining on where is going wrong that are based on YOU not knowing how polls work, how they are supposed to be interpreted, and not even properly understanding the point he was making.

3 Likes

Holy shit yesterday was WILD. I am just finding out that Olivia Nuzzi has been suspended by the New Yorker after she belatedly disclosed (only ever done when you’re about to get busted) an inappropriate personal relationship with JFK Jr

This is important because she is the author of the most high profile “everyone knew Biden was incompetent” pieces that came out immediately after the debate. Regardless of what anyone thought about his competency, the piece itself was awful. See below for examples. The criticism of the piece was extensive, but too few in the media was willing to give it any credence and as much as they rejected the criticisms as reflexive partisanship, their defenses of Nuzzi and the piece were reflexive closing the ranks around one of their own. Nuzzi was already known to have credibility issues to be reporting on a thing like this (a self processed Anne Coulter fan girl with a track record of racist comments against the Obamas), but thought leaders in the news world wouldn’t hear it.

Here is her framing of the two candidates

This revelation now makes sense of comments like this that are just parroting pro-Trump RFK talking points here

Trump’s attacks on the press are misguided and extremely dangersous. But the press’ refusal to engage honestly with the legit criticism people have of them and their perpetuation of incentives that select for journalists out to make names for themselves rather than informing the people is a big part of why Trump’s attacks have such fertile ground to land on.

6 Likes
2 Likes

A very good piece here from the excellent Sidney Blumenthal.

6 Likes

Trump reshaped the North Carolina Republican Party in his image. It could cost him the state

Story by Eric Garcia

image

The North Carolina political world — and American politics — received a bombshell on Thursday when CNN reported that Mark Robinson, the state’s Republican lieutenant governor, had frequently commented on a porn site about the fact he enjoyed watching pornography featuring transgender women and said, “And yeah I’m a ‘perv’ too.”

Robinson’s porn preferences would not be an issue except that he has said that people “who support this mass delusion called transgenderism” want “to turn God’s creation backwards, and make it into a sickening image of rebellion to glorify Satan.” He also said: “Dear Transgender crowd, You CANNOT tran-sin GOD’S creation. Sincerely, A Bible Thumper.”

On top of that, Robinson reportedly called himself “a black NAZI” and extolled the virtues of slave ownership on the same site, saying: “I wish they would bring it (slavery) back. I would certainly buy a few.”

Robinson has vehemently denied making any such comments and told CNN that the account wasn’t his.

The fallout from KFile’s reporting has been swift, however. So far, Robinson has shown no willingness to drop out of the race, despite the fact that polling had shown he was already trailing Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic nominee for governor. It’s an ironic turn of events that Robinson, who previously quoted Hitler, will now likely lose, making Stein the Old North State’s first Jewish governor.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris’s campaign smells blood in the water. On Friday, the campaign released an ad tying Trump and Robinson, including Trump saying “I think you’re better than Martin Luther King,” while also showing Robinson saying abortion is “about killing a child because you aren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down.” The ad says Trump and Robinson are “both wrong for North Carolina.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1837177145631646132

In Donald Trump’s Republican Party, apologizing is a sign of weakness and “not backing down” is a sign that someone knows how to “fight.” Thom Tillis, the state’s senior senator who has become a consummate dealmaker in Washington, responded to the story bluntly on Twitter/X: “It was a tough day, but we must stay focused on the races we can win. We have to make sure President Trump wins NC and support the outstanding GOP candidates running for key NCGA and judicial races. If Harris takes NC, she takes the White House. We can’t let that happen.”

4 Likes

To understand the playbook here you have to go back to the SC decision on Bush vs Gore I mentioned earlier.

Our elections are really unnecessarily complicated so when you get a large collection of ballots and hand count them there will be a surprising number where reasonable people might disagree over the voting intention. Generally, those get thrown in a separate pile and the hope is the winning margin of the votes you could count is big enough that the uncounted ballots dont matter. In Bush vs Gore that didnt happen and we needed to find a way to resolve the disagreements. That went on for long enough that the SC essentially said “we don’t have time for this. Bush is in the lead now, so we’ll stop the count and call him the winner.”

That is the goal. It is not about throwing votes out Mussolini style and claiming they won. Its about raising objections to enough Harris votes that when the first round of counts ends Trump is leading, and then running out the clock in the courts fighting over how to treat the Harris votes for long enough that the court uses the Bush vs Gore precedent. I get it might seem like the same thing, but it isn’t. The extra complexity and the involvement of the courts makes people who pretend to be serious view it as the court failing to give Harris remedy to overturn the election, rather than Trump stealing the election.

2 Likes

Who the fuck posts on porn sites?!?!

1 Like

Psychos and bots advertising other porn sites… or so I’ve been told.

1 Like

Laura Loomer - Far right flame thrower that has Trump’s attention

https://twitter.com/i/status/1837220184420950106

2 Likes

This is genuinely pretty funny

https://x.com/beatinthebookie/status/1837249880374280365?s=61&t=VxX1vHU3NOwwNhlbyICG-g

Weirdo back in NC today to discuss cats, dogs, geese, Swifties, sleek AR15s, immigrant animals, curries, Hunter, free spirit Laura, Dems killing babies after 9 months, leadership in IVF, leadership in saving Obamacare, Robinson who, his looks vs Kamala’s, and concepts of plans.

A special inhuman.

4 Likes

His campaign is in trouble in NC. The Robinson matter is sticking to him with moderates, who are a significant component of why NC is seen as being in play most years. The state has a strong Republican element, but the state GOP is really quite split between the Eastern old guard (who align most with the MAGA types) and a more moderate tradition. Throw in the colossal importance of the military in the state, and Trump is having to defend electoral votes his campaign would have banked on 6 weeks ago. Moving average has him at a 0.1% lead, but most troubling would be the fact that until late August, there wasn’t a single poll showing anything but a Trump lead.

I like that ‘Both Wrong’ ad, because it doesn’t throw mud around Robinson, just tries to connect Trump and Robinson while using their own rhetoric.

4 Likes

I guess it’s too much to hope that it would also affect down-ballet races like the state legislature…

1 Like