I think it is actually likely to have a larger effect further down the ballot. Robinson is sinking like a stone, 11 points back now and facing calls to drop out. I believe NC voting machines still offer the option to vote straight Republican or Democrat. The fact that a high-ballot Republican has given voters a reason not to vote straight ticket is going to hurt, if only because it brings elements like name-recognition into play.
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Does this mean that Stein gets elected automatically?
EDIT:
According to Wikipedia (yes, I know), he has passed the state deadline for withdrawing. Let’s hope he’s going to be a massive deadweight.
Also for what it’s worth, Wikipedia’s polling collection had him >10 points back even before the latest news broke.
Bone spurs
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Posts
2 hr 50 min ago
Trump argues “WOMEN ARE POORER” and “MORE DEPRESSED” now compared with when he was president
From CNN’s Kate Sullivan
Former President Donald Trump on Friday night argued “WOMEN ARE POORER,” “LESS HEALTHY” and “MORE DEPRESSED” now compared with when he was president four years ago.
In an all-caps post on Truth Social, Trump said that he would “FIX ALL OF THAT” if reelected and that people would “NO LONGER BE THINKING ABOUT ABORTION.”
He pointed to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which eliminated the constitutional right to an abortion, and said the issue is now “WHERE IT ALWAYS HAD TO BE, WITH THE STATES,” while reaffirming his support for abortion bans with exceptions for rape, incest and to save the mother’s life.
“I WILL PROTECT WOMEN AT A LEVEL NEVER SEEN BEFORE. THEY WILL FINALLY BE HEALTHY, HOPEFUL, SAFE, AND SECURE. THEIR LIVES WILL BE HAPPY, BEAUTIFUL, AND GREAT AGAIN!” Trump said.
Weirdo.
Go on, Momala.
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I don’t know the NC rules, but yes, he is going to be on the ballot either way.
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But was only ever effective in a Big mman/Small man 2 up front. Was never able to lead the line on his own.
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The day the latest stories came out was the last day that he could be removed and replaced by a different candidate. That is the main reason so many were speculating the info was a dump from within the party, as a hail mary to get a different candidate on the ballot who wouldnt bring down a host of different races.
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I am curious how many NC counties use machines that allow or default to ticket voting (all GOP or Democratic). A generation ago, something like this was catastrophic because it eliminates the ‘coat tails’ effect, where a presidential candidate simply carries the electorate through the whole ballot. A high-ballot candidate with a significant negative difference in popularity gives people a reason not to vote all-party, and laziness would take over. In this scenario, Trump voters would choose Trump, and then not bother doing the rest of the ballot.
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This should be genuinely terrifying to people
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1837586365300855262
Your legal status is contingent on whether we agree with it and we will deport you if we dont agree (says the man whose wife is only a citizen due to the birthright citizenship he has opposed).
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I wonder if that logic applies to presidential pardons too?
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He’s also got an extraordinary view of the powers of the VP.
Is he expecting to be responsible for huge swathes of government policy?
Who else do you think is behind all these attempts on Trump’s life?
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Honestly, Iran.
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(I wasn’t being serious)
Nor was he
I was. Thee is ample reporting on their attempts that includes finding deranged people online and egging them on through sock puppet accounts
Anyway, your women aren’t fuckable anymore. I said I’d fix this in 2016 but this time I mean it
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Trump running his own “basement campaign”
https://x.com/jemsinger/status/1837881513599189368?s=61&t=VxX1vHU3NOwwNhlbyICG-g
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For those more in the know, what’s up with the NYT/Siena polls? Looking at the 538 data, it seems as though the NYT/Siena polls seem to be Trump-biased?
(Before anyone jumps on it, I mean in a statistical sense)
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Trump will deflate like the Hindenburg after losing in November
Opinion by Thom Hartmann
Donald Trump has seemed so larger-than-life to so many Americans for so long that it’s almost impossible to not think of him as a perpetual, ongoing threat.
And, indeed, he has already tried to mount one coup against our nation which was largely ignored by our Attorney General for two long years, setting up the virtual certainty of a second attempt this fall should he lose by a small margin.
That, however, is not what current trends, an innovation in political science, and world history tell us will most likely happen over the next four months.
In my opinion, we’re going to see Trump deflate like the Hindenburg if he suffers a major defeat. Here’s why and how.
Increasingly, it appears that Trump is going to lose the election in a big way. Having already lost in 2016 by 3 million votes and 2020 by 7 million votes, there’s little to indicate he’s expanded his voter base; instead, by doubling down on hate, racism, and calls for violence he’s managed to offend a large part of the traditional GOP. When Dick Cheney says you’re too much of a fascist, you’re in trouble.
Now comes Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller, who’s developed an intriguing way to predict election outcomes. Instead of looking at polling data — which has proved woegeously unreliable over the past decade, probably because of cell phones — Miller looks at betting markets and draws his trends and predictions from them. They’re dynamic, updated instantly, and real money is on the line so there’s no margin for error.
In the 2020 race for president, for example, the polls showed Biden barely squeaking by and, in the Georgia senate elections, polls predicted Kelly Loeffler would beat Raphael Warnock and David Perdue would defeat Jon Ossoff. Miller, relying on the betting data, not only called all three races accurately, but hit Ossoff’s 1% victory on the nose and was only 0.2% off on Warnock’s victory.
If current trends continue, Miller’s system is predicting a blowout for Harris, with her getting around 55% of the popular vote:
“It would be somewhere between the defeats of Barry Goldwater by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole by Bill Clinton in 1996,” Miller told Fortune magazine. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”
So, if that happens, what does it mean for Trump?
My prediction is that by one hour after the networks agree that Donald Trump is a blowout nationwide loser, every elected major Republican in the country will abandon him.
It will be swift and certain, because in that moment every single one of those Republican elected officials is going to realize that Donald Trump no longer has any meaningful political power. In that moment, he’ll simply be an impotent cult leader whose votaries are elderly, deluded, and constitute much smaller numbers than most people realized.
Their worldview is rooted in racism, conspiracy theory, and several eccentric and outlier forms of fundamentalist Christianity, along with the Qanon cult. Together with low information voters, that base constitutes enough people to fill rallies and make Trump seem like he has the potential to win an election.
But the reality is that he hasn’t won anything since his freak 2016 electoral college victory, and that only happened by the intervention of Putin’s Facebook trolls and Jill Stein.
Americans will realize, in the moment that announcement is made, that Trump is really and truly going to prison, that the hundreds of millions of dollars in fines for his crimes will bankrupt him, and that he will no longer have the GOP as a money machine to pay his legal bills.
In other words, that’s the moment the reality sets in that he’s going down.
Doomed.
Condemned.
That he’s lost his mojo. That he’ll never again run for any political office, anywhere.
That he is now both useless and unthreatening.
And Republican politicians, if nothing else, understand power and the lack thereof. They’ll flee from Trump even more rapidly than they did Goldwater in 1964 and Bush Sr. in 1992.
Or, even more likely, they’ll turn on him like the Cheney family has.
The entire Republican party will essentially join the Lincoln Project, and suddenly you’ll see Republicans on all the national shows condemning Trump for everything he ever did or said or is continuing to do and say.
Then, of course — after they’ve destroyed Trump and pushed him off the national stage — they’ll all get back to trying to privatize Social Security and shut down Obamacare.
Although it rarely makes the national press, I hear from insiders that some Republicans are already making plans for a post-Trump party, and a struggle for dominance has already erupted among several senators.
This may play a role in the current war between Lauren Boebert, Laura Loomer, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, among other other major dysfunctions in today’s GOP. It’s all about bets for or against Trump‘s political survival.
This is going to play out like an episode of the Sopranos, and I can hardly wait…
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