Wishful thinking, I’m afraid. He’ll claim victory no matter what happens and his backers will continue to support him as some kind of hard done by martyr.
There’s still no guarantee that Harris will win the EC.
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Trump wins. bank on it.
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Interesting idea on the betting odds.
Here’s one aggregator, but it’s not quite as bullish as that. I haven’t dug down into the methodologies though.
Siena does polls of registered and polls of likely voters, which often produces a marginal difference.
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Legitimately? Do you think Trump will win the most electoral college votes, assuming they are allowed to be counted?
It’s not an outlandish suggestion, and much as I would love the piece above to be true, I think it will be closer.
Still, Trump to win, bank on it. Is that you nailing your colors to the mast for the Presidential Election?
First thing is I would rather a “bad” NYT/Sienna poll than a polling average that includes a bunch of bad polls. The value in it is not just how rigorous they are in conducting it, but in their transparency and their efforts to explain what is in their data. If you are on Twitter Nate Cohen is a good follow.
FWIW, this is my comment on them from May.
Most pollsters believe the undercount of Trump voters in the past 2 cycles has come from a part of his support who are unusually non-responsive to their efforts to communicate with them, what is called “non-response bias.” NYT/Sienna has played with their definition of “likely voter” to try to better capture that segment. The result is a sample that doesn’t just look different than others, but has some weirdness to it.
Nate (the good Nate) and his team deserve a ton of credit because most pollsters will second guess themselves to death over results that make their poll an outlier, but Nate goes ahead and publishes his and then engages in serious debates about why his data look the way they do and various explanations for what they might have got wrong to produce that. But this is still their best effort to capture what is happening in the electorate.
And that is the real point of polling. Not to make a prediction, but to make a description of of a population and then describe the level of (statistical) uncertainty you have over that description.
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Perfectly put.
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I find this title bizarre. The Hindenburg didn’t deflate, it caught fire and was utterly destroyed by it. So I’m not really sure what the author means with that comparison.
That being said, I’d love to see Trump take fire, crash and burn in such a manner.
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I swear this one can be used literally everywhere…
Trump will go off quietly, like “Little Boy” over Hiroshima
His general argument is an interesting one, even if supported by ignorance of the data (claiming there is no evidence of trump widening his support is just flat out wrong) and weird analogy. Stuart Stevens, one of the founding Lincoln Project guys has been predicting for months now that his campaign will go off the way Hemingway spoke about going broke - it happens slowly and then all at once. We have been in the “all the signs point to sliding support, we’re just not seeing it yet” phase for a few months. Stevens’ idea is that Trump is such a bad candidate that once they finally start seeing the erosion his instinct will be to act in a way that accelerates his loss of support.
Fingers crossed.
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The other factor here is that once he is no longer essential to GOP victory (because he proves unable to deliver), the GOP will turn on him and his fellow travellers. The likes of Boebert, MTG and Gaetz are absolutely despised. Once they are seen as vulnerable, their political end will come very soon.
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Fingers , legs , arms …
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Always a tipping point. Just wondering what it will be? He’s been pretty teflon so far.
I think the comment/quip, is referencing the fact someone has nicknamed the Baby Trump Balloon, as the Hindenburg - Due to the size and shape of it…
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That is probably how he walks around Air-Force One since his mishap :0)
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Title worked for me. Large exploding orange turd.
… … … eyes, balls…
Republican Governors Association basically quitting the race in NC
https://x.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1838261277510062442
These would have been spots the Trump team would have been banking on
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Pretty sure TAN has peaked.
Shut it down!!
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