I had a recollection from the 2016 election, and thought it had relevance to the Joe Rogan interview with Trump on Friday. The memory I have is from a Howard Stern show where he laments that Hillary Clinton would have won the election if she had gone on his show (as Trump did as a guest). At that stage of his career he was still huge and had a huge following.
I think the Rogan show is 100% suited to Trump as he can and probably will talk about a wide variety of subjects. The shows are anywhere from a couple of hours to 3-4 hours, so it will be interesting to see how long his is. I think his shows are basically unedited as well.
As far as Harris going on the show, I doubt it. She does not have the personality for it, and would probably struggle to fill even an hour.
The Harris campaign has been pretty clear on two things about how they view the race based on their internal data (which is far deeper and more nuanced than public polls)
It is really fucking close. They consider themselves to have a fractional advantage but it is really really close
What is left of the winnable vote look like disaffected republicans who are most likely to be swayed by being convinced that Trump is too much of a danger to allow back in.
The tightrope they have to walk is to not let this microtargeting confuse their macro level message, but that is their theory of the case and it is what they are spending a good amount of their time pushing to close out the campaign. But also, his fucking chief of staff was confirmed on tape saying that yes, fascist is a good word to describe him.
Do you really think there is anything left that has not been heard by them? I doubt that this block of voters are undecided. Pure speculation obviously.
And to add to my pov, will any undecided voter that currently remains be swayed by character of Trump or are they 100% looking at issues that concern them the most. I think its the latter, and honestly dont think there are any significant numbers of these voters left.
One of the troubling sub-themes emerging is that polls are generally saying it is very close, the Democrats believe it is very closeā¦and Trumpās supporters are absolutely convinced that it is not. That does not bode at all well for acceptance of a close result in Harrisā favour.
Well, there are people who spend every day studying voting habits and trends, who have studied politics at university and who are such experts in their field as to have been hired by one of the presidential candidates. On the other hand you have a couple of blokes on a football fan forum.
By this thinking, why even campaign then? Why not just spent the next two weeks relaxing? But also, do you not recognize the incoherence of your pointā¦if you are arguing that people cannot be swayed at this point and that people have heard all there is to hear, why would it matter to go and talk to them about āpolicyā
And pssstt, no voter gives a fuck about āpolicyā, especially not ones that are still winnable in the last week of October.
I didnāt say there is nobody left, just not that much, and I think you misunderstood that quote, I was referring to undecideds hearing all the criticisms of Trump, they have heard it ad nauseam so one more time is not going to make a difference. What they have not heard enough of, is issues that are important to them and how Harris or Trump is going to solve it.
Re the Trump attack theory ā¦
1.Grab her by the pussy - Nah still voting for him.
2. Next Hitler - Nah still voting for him.
3. Overthrow democracy - Nah still voting for him.
4. Jan 6th - Nah still voting for him.
5. Election denier - Nah still voting for him.
6. Arnold Palmer has a huge cock - What, he said that? damn Iām not voting for him.
Do you understand what I am getting at? Itās illogical to me to continue to throw mud at the guy and hope that it sticks this time.
Do you think Trump could win the popular vote and lose the election? I donāt think this is remotely possible, and if it were to happen, that when I think the real acceptance in results will be an issue. If Harris were to win, then I hope she takes the popular as well.
You would have to think that if only a small amount of the utter tripe Trump has come out with is true he belongs in a building far removed from the White House.
Take your pick as to whether it is the Big House or the Funny Farm.
No, I donāt think is at all likely. Harris has a solid lead on the popular vote, though not enormous. But many Trump supporters seem to be convinced he is headed toward a Reagan-style landslide, and the numbers out there just donāt show that. Even that 1980 election started to break for Reagan right about now.
Some people are just positioning themselves to gloat with an āI told you soā post-election with little to no interest in anything he actually says. Trumpās āpoliciesā, rhetoric, and actions donāt matter. Itās just about their team winning.
Btw, predicting a Trump win hardly makes you Nostradamus; you have about a 50% chance of being right.
She would probably be fine but there would be little value because there are unlikely to be any votes to be captured from doing so if his pushing of Pseudo archaeology with his buddy Graham Hancock is anything to go by.
The greater risk is as per usual that all this microtargeting risks turning off the voters they really need to motivate to ensure that their base assumptions hold.
