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The same bad actors regarding polling have moved continents and seem to be over there now. Probably gives me slightly more confidence that itās a miss like 2022 which favoured the Dems.
There is enough amongst the noise to suggest she will win. If that plays out so be it.
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I have said repeatedly that the data donāt make sense in this election. It is not just that the data is variable from poll to poll, itās that it is all the inferences you can make from them seem contradictory suggesting something is not right under the hood of the models.
There have been lots of nerd debates about what explains this and what it means for the results, and most of it is smart discussion of the difficult of understanding where a political realignment like weāre seeming seeing ends up. In the last couple of days though weāve started seeing the emergence of people acknowledging the previously unstated but simplest explanationā¦pollsters, even serious independent ones, are forcing their results to increase the Trump vote. The implications for a pollster that missing the Trump vote for a 3rd election in a row are huge, and there is a reasonable sense of self interest in preferring to be āwrongā as long as they dont miss the Trump vote again. The result is an incentive for a pollster to reject their results if it isnt Trumpy enough and keep changing their assumptions until there is enough of a Trump vote to make it a toss up. Once a poster sees other people producing those results the incentive to cluster their results around what other people are finding (a real phenomenon in polling called herding) becomes even stronger.
Iāve seen some results that require men to be 50-50 with women in terms of number of votes cast, and no one believes that. So why did that poll end up with that assumption if not to force the result in to a higher trump number?
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Surely the Harris campaign should be blasting that all over?
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The question is are they still polling Kamalaās voters and if not thatās going skewer the figures even further if they havenāt built it in.
Considering her vote looks higher from the votes so far.
To be fair, I see where the quote is coming from. Imagine being stuck in a relationship where you canāt talk to your partner about your political preferencesā¦
I canāt wait to see Trumpās reaction when Melania tells him sheās voting for Harris.
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Heāll hear about it in her next book.
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Just like you correctly pointed out in my lengthy post, my thoughts are speculation as there is no definitive proof, its what I think, nobody knows. The link you provided is also again speculation, these are all things (or similar ilk) that were proposed his last term, so nobody knows what will happen post election if he loses. I am fairly certain there will be plenty of cases brought before the court, just like there are every election, no matter the winner.
There have already been a number of lawsuits that have been initiated and judged upon, by both the democrats and republicans. Some the republicans have lost, some the democrats have lost. There have already been suspicious ballot registrations (I think it was this and not actual votes) that have already been identified, which is a good thing. There have already been instances of arson on voting boxes, with minimal damage, and the ability to contact those whoās ballots have been damaged (once again a good process).
Court cases are a good thing, and the correct way to challenge an election. I donāt really care if the cases are frivolous according to opinion as they will get ruled upon, just like they were last election.
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I care if the cases are frivolous, because it undermines the concept of having a free and fair election - necessary for any country to function well.
Frivolous cases get you to the point, in America at least, where almost half the population has fallen for the big lie.
Hopefully Trump will be well beaten here, to the point that even his cheating and scheming will not prevail.
The only legal cases that should concern Trump will be the ones that might well take his freedom away, after he loses the election.
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Of course you do 
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I should have pointed out that its an opinion that its frivolous. āHalfā (not even close) the population falling for a big lie, and then doing nothing about it, other than voting again, should show you that itās most definitely not half the population.
Iām still hoping for an explanation on nuclear warming
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It also brings in the fact that during his previous term, Trump stacked the Supreme Court with personally picked appointies, so the chances of him getting a favorable decision from any S.C challange means the election has become nothing more than a charade.
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I donāt have data and it is less than half. But most of his voters believe the big lie, and that is appalling.
Further, it has become the only acceptable path for politicians in the Trump orbit.
Tell the truth and you are out of the GOP and out on your arse. Vance sailed perilously close recently, when it took him a while - far too long for Trumpās liking - to finally do Trumpās bidding and toe the party line. Oops, I mean party lie.
All the frivolous lawsuits make it seem - to his undiscerning base - that he is fighting the good fight, when all he is doing is muddying the waters to discredit the process.
I think he will lose. I think the women are coming out in force to vote. He will litigate, again; and I think there will be violence, again.
But he wonāt prevail, and the page will be turned as justice catches up with him.
Just my guess on what will happen.
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Yeah, itās also an incoherent attitude given how firmly he held that taking legal action against Trump was election subversion regardless of the strengths and merits of the cases.
But if you focus just on these election lawsuits, not caring that one side submitted a series of frivolous election cases requires ignoring two keys bits of context
- That the federal bench has been meaningfully reshaped to fill it with FedSoc judges installed precisely to rule favourably on these sorts of cases no matter how bad, even before you get to the Supreme Court.
- It is part of a plan, 4 years in the making, try to allow him to get installed as the winner without having won enough votes to win in the EC, having already failed at his previous attempt to do this 4 years ago.
Holding that these cases are fine even if frivolous because the law will out AND that the Trump cases were bad are just not a pair of opinions someone can come to on the basis of serious consideration of the facts. They are positions someone has been backed into to justify a position they have already emotionally committed to and then requires them to ignore the incoherence of them to avoid the cognitive dissonance becoming deafening.
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Only if someone reads it to him.
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