US Election 2024

Well he’s not a bad golfer but it took Jack Nicklaus’ son 10 years of competing as a professional to make the PGA Tour. He made the cut twice at the US Open but lost his place on the PGA Tour after three years.

He essentially spent the fame and fortune of his Dad’s career to live out his own fantasies despite clearly not being that good at it. Something that a normal person would never have been able to do.

Funnily enough Trump stumbled onto a pretty accurate similarity for himself.

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Last crowd ended up in prison without parole for thirty years or longer. Election interfer in GA got nine years. A lot of his really rabid followers are in prison. Would the never batch of white boys fall on the trump sword after this outcome? I don’t think the orange turd can pardon an army of followers. There’s so many in prison!!

Watched Sasha in Borat 2 and a lot of really bad GOP shit evident in that movie. Worth a repeat if you’ve got the time.

I’ve happy to use fascism and I’m happy to argue it, I’ve read enough to feel comfortable arguing it.

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https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1852800821387268351

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Jeez, they are only a hop, skip, and a jump from taking steps to preserve America’s precious bodily fluids…

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https://x.com/NickKnudsenUS/status/1852775730322813169

:no_mouth:

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https://x.com/franklinisbored/status/1852851486687990045

edit

it´s all over the news right now, that´s why i´m sharing it. we will see

https://x.com/jaselzer/status/1852849040070734157

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1852850011899322526

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I’ll believe it after it comes true…

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Trump won Iowa by about 9-10 points both elections, although Iowa is not deep red. I am skeptical about one poll, but if something is happening in the last 10 days (sort of what happened in 1980, Reagan surging versus Carter), Tuesday could get very interesting.

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It’s difficult to overstate the shock wave of that seltzer poll. She is the pollsters pollster and had historically picked up things not caught by the pack. When she had trump+6 two months ago the GOP shit themselves about what a bad result was for them. If Harris wins Iowa she is winning 400+ electoral,college votes.

And, this cannot be overstated, Selzer is the best of the best

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https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1852815541607485795

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Right, but the polls always have that 19 of 20 notation…you do see rogue results. I don’t question her command of her craft, but it is one poll.

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This is hilarious. I guess Nottingham Forrest are winning the league this year.

https://x.com/jmart/status/1852852451658940680
https://x.com/Amy_Siskind/status/1852862978095267880

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Yes it’s one poll and people should not use it and Selzer’s reputation to assume Harris win Iowa. The relevance is not the one in 20 chance Iowa goes the other way, but how much shorter the odds are this is wrong enough for trump to win Iowa by a big enough margin to translate to a national win

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Yeah, it suggests a rot in the MAGA foundations. Within that 5%, only a limited segment of the population will be wildly opposite to reality versus simply being outside the confidence interval. Iowa was thought to be in the bank.

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I know nothing about Selzer, but this is shocking as Iowa is ruby red. If there’s a chance it is now in play, and women are indeed coming out to vote for Harris en masse, Trump is in the shit.

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It isn’t really. Trump won it, but so did Obama. For that matter, both Gore and Dukakis won Iowa, albeit not by large margins.

However, if Trump has indeed seen a ~10% lead in Iowa evaporate, there could be some real surprises coming.

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Some good recent polling for Harris now, which can make one a bit hopeful (some pollsters even wants to call it for Harris). Still much too close. Trump not losing with a landslide won’t solve anything but the imediate short term and just postpone it unto the next general election though. GOP needs to lose by a true landslide to change course (I think), and they won’t.

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https://x.com/atrupar/status/1852813748471308348

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