Yeah a +5 win in Iowa likely translates to losing, possibly not even very close.
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https://x.com/Dexter__Wright/status/1853081260626743766
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1853103996820406294
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Making a basic call on elections is that floating voters tend to be more female usually. Certainly the case here in the UK.
In any polling look at āotherā because I am pretty sure that breaks for Harris favourably.
It will depend how favourably it does. If she is picking up female vote thatās not massively attuned then she is already outdoing Clinton in 2016.
Itās almost like people want more than giving oral sex to a microphone and a story about the fictional Hannibal Lectar.
Letās see what happens.
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I heard Chuck Todd make his one good point of the year last week - if you are fighting your conscience over your vote you will likely wait until the last minute to make that decision. This likely explains a lot of the late swing to Trump in 2016, and if you believe Harris is capable of picking off past Trump voters there is likely a sizeable portion of them not yet showing up in polls and who will likely not vote until election day.
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No idea if the strategy will work out, but that was a pretty flawless campaign by Harris - no major scandals, gaffes, mistakes, opposition research on her and Walz was weak as fuck also. Donāt think she could have done that much better in the circumstances.
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Lots of room to quibble over the levels of precision here, but the general principal voiced here of how Iowa can be a signal of the national race is why people have shit themselves over the Selzer poll
https://x.com/NapervillePol/status/1852400623443927238
SO much political coverage appears to be about score settling so if she loses I would expect a load of coverage of people assuming the thing they wanted her do differently/more is the reason. Especially the VP pick, with the ātold you she should have picked Shapiroā stories already written. But I agree with you here.
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https://x.com/DadInGeorgiaUSA/status/1853130834678534153
interesting article btw
If Trump is losing votes in places like Iowa and Harris picks up PA, Walz will have been a defining decision.
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āI think weāre gonna have a little fun with Michelleā
How fucking creepy does that sound 
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Note the way he says weā¦
Must be his mates he uses for roasting.!
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Yeah sure, strategic decisions, might have been wrong with hindsight. Execution was pretty flawless though, can hardly remember a campaign like that. Granted it was unusually short in her case, but still.
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Itās not going to happen, but it makes an attractive case for parties to go back to the days of party leaders nominating a presidential candidate in back rooms rather than extended affairs where the party spends 9 months tearing itself apart over fights that are ultimately irrelevant to the general election debate
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Ramaswamy doesnāt count since he does not have opinions of his own. He has a shrunken ancient brain ball (Brain balls - Wikipedia ) rattling inside that skull of his. He doesnt even have the excuse of having had his brain feasted on by worms for years, like that other steroid addicted person on the list.
The rest are very dangerous.
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Republicans: We need to tone down the rhetoric. It is dangerous
Trump: Go on, kill the media here. I dont mind
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https://x.com/AntiquarianMuse/status/1853070980878352810
https://x.com/BErickson_BIO/status/1853121757332304376
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His speeches tour is like a touring carnival ā you know the type, the ones you go to because you have never seen before, a bearded lady or similar
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I would agree what you said about it being 400+ seats if he loses this. Even with this poll, even though it has skewed the average, Trump is still slightly ahead. I think 8+ is still a more accurate outcome.
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Now I understand why the Democrats have been pushing white guilt 
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