The geek in me just wants the elections to be over so I can look at the stats… (among other reasons of course)
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The most unpredictable bit about me is what thread I’ll post my response in.
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What I’ve read of that black male vote it does seem very situation driven.
Though issue will be with that voter are they able to get the a reliable sample.
I’ve got doubts on that.
I have a good number of friends from University who are from Iowa and since the poll I have been messaging with one who went back to Des Moines to do family practice medicine (what we call a GP). She was telling me she felt this was coming as the recent abortion ban has exacerbated a growing problem in the state with access to pregnancy and delivery related care. Even before the ban the state was experiencing a problem retaining or recruiting new OBGYNs. But since the ban it has got so bad they now have the worst per capita ratio in the country with entire counties lacking even a single provider.
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Was just seeing some of this yesterday - fully one third of the counties are considered ‘deserts’, no providers in the county or nearby. Infant mortality is climbing, and despite having some good medical schools, many trainee physicians are looking out of state for residencies now.
You wonder how much of this there is across the country - Iowa has a particular Ob-gyn problem, but remains one of the better states for overall infant mortality.
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Keep in mind and earlier Selzer poll showed Trump up by 6 and that led the GOP to shit themselves over the implications of a lead that had shrunk that far. Yet this is their spin this morning - “we’re not losing, we are up by 5”
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Was the poll run by volunteers who received a chance to win USD 1m in a daily lottery in return? Because I’ve got news for them if that’s the case…
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Trump’s China tariffs broke the global soybean oil market and fucked Iowa farmers.
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That’s pretty much the exact story my friend was telling me.
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Anyone who has spent time doing polling and worked in the field.
Two things, yes you can have outliers so perhaps Iowa is this, however they tend not to be this far out and secondary “internal party polling” saying something different doesn’t much matter. It’s asking the same people and sometimes can be worse than bi-partisan polling.
If a mostly reliable poll in Iowa is saying a 4pt lead for Harris with no obvious sample issues then at worst it’s neck and neck. Which if replicated is an utter disaster as this state is not the state that elected Democrats. It’s shifted.
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https://x.com/Amy_Siskind/status/1853065830893781003
https://x.com/MsMalarkey24/status/1853069720557064443
If they’re not telling their husbands, you think they’re telling pollsters? Definitely more than 1 in 8.
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It is absolutely wild - University of Iowa has a top 40 medical school, and obgyn has been one of their stronger programs. They have been losing faculty in the last couple of years.
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When I was younger, I grew up with people around me looking up to the USA as some kind of great, civilised, prosperous country.
And then I learnt about the Deep South. Alabama, Mississippi, poverty rates and education the likes of which the place I grew up in hadn’t seen for decades.
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https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1853086584540659922
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1853113754403123247
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1853115949916016856
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Haha @Arminius
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About half a million black men went off to war in the 40s to “fight fascism” yet would have been unable to cast a vote in an election upon returning home to the south
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