A brilliant piece of journalism. 
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IMO the little gobshite got off lucky just having his phone smashed. If Jason Kelce had really wanted to fuck the kid up, heād be eating through a straw for an indefinite length of time for saying that sort of shit
Kelce isnāt stupid enough to end up on an assault charge over that incel twat.
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I donāt think stupidity is the same as impulse control.
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Donāt really know too much about the guy other than he played nfl, and his brother is dating Taylor Swift, but when you watch the video, prior to smashing the twats phone, he had that walk of someone not in a great mood and possibly was pissed off already, which makes me think someone said something prior to the video starting. But just looking at the size of the guy, he could fuck up a large majority of people with little effort I suspect.
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I believe the phrase is āfuck around and find outā.
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But you like polls?
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Nudge, nudge, wink; wink 
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The likelihood is still that Trump wins Iowa but if that state is even close, which the Selzer poll suggests it will be, then that is an absolute disaster for Trump. Heās won Iowa by 8+ points the last two elections.
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Unless it is echoed in other states (or he loses this one) then I canāt imagine he will care. He will just argue it is evidence of Democrat cheating.
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He will claim it was stolen no matter what. If its close he will say it is proof it was stolen, if its a blow out Democrat win he will say it was stolen. If he wins he will say he won too big for Democrat cheating to work.
If Iowa is close it is because independants are voting for for Harris. I donāt think there is any reason to believe that this trend wouldnāt be replicated in other states.
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The default expectation is that voter patterns are replicated across a range of similar states. That is the main reason this has caused such an earthquake. Iowa itself simply isnt a factor in the race to 270 under any set of even minorly likely permutations and so the only reason this is relevant is because of what it being even a close race there means on the regional/national scale.
This result is seemingly based on the strong Harris number among women and older women particularly, and the more general group of non-college educated white. If collectively their vote makes Iowa close then Trump is goosed.
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Would be kind of funny, but one of the through-lines in the polls Iāve seen is that, IF Trump loses, it will likely be largely because he lost support among white people.
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Which is his base demographically speaking, if anyoneās wondering.
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Alternately , were Harris it to lose it could well be down to losing support amongst black men and Latinos. 
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Yeah, I know, I guess I was aware of that earlier and thought she will have to regain some support with those groups in the last stages of the campaign - didnāt necessarily think she might instead be able to overcompensate with white people.
Probably more of a gender thing anyway.
The racial realignment happening in both directions is real and worthy of analysis when races will be won and lost on the margins. What it appears to be due to is people of all races being more inclined to align according to education rather than race - dems gaining white college grads and Republicans gaining non-whites without a college degree. Even then though, despite all the coverage of the āproblem with black menā, they will still end up being one of the most reliable Dem voting blocks. A lot of the narratives are paining that 5% of the voting block who are moving as being more representative of the demo than the 80% or so who are still going to end up voting Dem.
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Ha, I wouldnāt dare to make any predictions about the result of this election, but I totally predicted that Limiescouse response.
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I wonder if itāll turn out to be like 2020, when once again despite all the speculation about potential shifts in non-white votes, it turns out to not significantly move the needle. I think the availability heuristic is quite strong here, because itās easy to see the popularity of (for lack of a better term) toxic masculinity media such as Rogan, Peterson, Tate, etc., but the next question is, how much does that really move the needle in terms of attitudes, behaviours, and most importantly voting patterns?
Iām curious (morbidly so given the potential consequences) if this voting shift will turn out to be yet another mirage.
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The shift was very definitely real. A lot of it came from the manosphere, podcast bro type environments, which is a pretty race agnostic space. Itās just by 2020 it hadnt moved enough to impact the final result. The trajectory has definitely continued over the last 4 years and if that had happened in isolation it would be difficult to see how he loses. But it hasnt been in isolation. Just as importantly though the shifts in the other direction appear to be associated with higher intensity of enthusiasm and in groups with a better history of actually voting.
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