https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853547636374073846
https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/1853565483443732570
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853553075380003317
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1853571647854289272
https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1853538990147715347
https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1853578038572683402
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My final thoughts on why I THINK Trump will win the election with 300+ electoral votes, win popular vote, with every swing state he wins will be >1%. All points are my opinion and are gathered from news articles/videos from a variety of traditional media sources (Fox, CNN, ABC, Times, etc).
- Voters unsatisfied with current admin.
- Voters have indicated that he leads when it comes two 3 out of 4 voter issues, especially border/immigration and economy/inflation which are generally the top 2.
- Republican party have been able to close gap on registrations significantly.
- Republicans have been able to get a significant portion of registered voters to vote early, in some places outpacing Democrats. Caveat - registration wont always mean a vote along party lines.
- Democrats are not keeping up with their early voting numbers from 2020 (seem to be behind by a significant amount).
- Trump is a known quantity.
- I get the impression that Harris has not been able to identify with voters that are not anti-Trump.
- I think Harris screwed up the VP pick (hindsight).
- Harris has not been able to separate herself from current admin.
- Harris has skirted around on a few issues, I think she needed to be more decisive on several talking point.
- The democrats wasted too much time trying to demonize Trump. IMO its a tactic of diminished returns as there are not many people that have not already formed an opinion years ago.
- Democrats losing a section of demographics (Latino, Muslim and Black) while gaining in other demographics at a lesser rate. The Muslim vote is particularly bad timing as its in one of the closest swing states.
- Trump has done a few things that have really elevated his media exposure (McDonalds, Rogan) while Harris has not been able to replicate it in any way.
- Terrible timing for Biden,Cuban and Hochul remarks - I donāt think this is particularly significant, especially Hochul. Just another cut to add to a death by a thousand cuts.
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Thumbs up for providing a counterpoint along the way, and in this particular post, for showing your working.
I disagree, and I think Kamala Harris will win 300+ electoral college votes.
Trumpās people have already been trying numerous lawsuits and not really getting anywhere. I expect that to continue, as he wants to cast aspersions over the whole thing.
I just donāt think he has the numbers to win the big prize. I think when the history books are written, this election will be the one when America decided to turn the page on Trump, and it will also be the election where women came out, en masse, to have their say in the sort of country they want to live in.
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i have a question for the American forumites
from the outside, you seem a culture beholden to celebrity endorsementsā¦ the sheer weight of endorsements for Harris, and the attention it is given seems particularily alien and quite frankly crass, to meā¦
is it really that big a factor, or is it just a bunch of celebrities, being celebrities and acting as if thier opinion actually carries weightā¦
do people actually vote for Harris because Queen B says its a good thing to do?
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https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/1853597983440527432
https://x.com/meiselasb/status/1853595594239225870
https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1853602940109443416
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I doubt anyone gives a shit. Maybe it holds some sway in the undecided households but I doubt it.
Iāve never heard anyone change their mind because a celebrity decided to endorse a candidate but I think what it does do is continue to create a perception of strong support - which in turn should motivate more voters to turn out.
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Iāll give it a go.
I think the electorate is all over the map in every way imaginable - race, gender, religion, age, education, and every other way that makes us human. Well over 200 million people will be eligible to vote.
So, for people like you and me - educated and erudite grown ups - there is nothing that any celebrity could say that would sway our opinion one jot.
Now letās imagine 10 million people are going to vote for the first time in this election (the numbers are for illustration) and suppose maybe half of them like Taylor Swift, to one degree or another, or know about her and her music. Chances are, the candidate Taylor Swift prefers will have some sort of sway. Not wholesale sway - I think how your parents vote is the biggest factor, along with how empathetic you are - but in a tight contest, as the old Tesco advert I remember from the UK saysā¦
Every little helps.
Oprah. Arnie. Taylor. BeyoncĆ©. They will all help with some people, to one degree or another. Iām afraid Iām not up on celebrity culture, but a few Puerto Rican celebrities with huge social media followings will definitely have some influence after the island of trash comments by the Republicans.
We live in a world of celebrities and it will have some influence, on some people, and that could be consequential in a close race.
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Closing event Harris PA
https://www.youtube.com/live/pMzsAiMAdM4?si=da-dv4hod5j680O3
https://www.youtube.com/live/vAd5Q_Jr4zA?si=xCZEM1jKm_GwGy9-
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(post deleted by KGB)
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Celebrities can lead drives to get people to register - but the endorsements donāt mean much in big picture. Window dressing.
Iāve changed my mind 10 times already today about who i think will win. I think Iām coming back around to Harris winning, but that might just be my hope shining through. I want women to show up in numbers and send Trump packing.
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As for celebrities, when I was a nipper and starting my meteoric footballing rise 
the football boots I wanted at the time were a brand I havenāt seen in years, Patrick, and I wanted them because Kevin Keegan had his name on them.
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Every election, millions of Americans did not vote because they were swayed by the endorsement of @cynicaloldgit that it would not matter, cos the world is fucked.
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https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1853613312543535231
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1853616913995161862
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My theory is that the celebrity endorsement is nearly useless unless they are constantly engaging. A once off from Swift, JLo, Lebron, Beyonce, might seem impressive because of the followers numbers however I donāt think they are as effective as ācelebrityā endorsements like Musk or Rogan, who are consistently talking about Trump and have enormous engagement with a diverse group of followers. Rogan had Fetterman on his show the other day (2hrs), the guy had a stroke in 2022 and still won a senate seat in Pennsylvania, so no idea why Harris or Walz couldnāt do the same. I think this could arguably be one of the mistakes of the election if she loses.
Harris campaign thankfully got rid of De Niro as he was coming across as unhinged and was probably harming more than helping (I think he was more of a Biden thing anyway).
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Agreed - except the former are unlikely to lose voters for their candidate through their public endorsement whereas the likes of Musk and Roganās personal repulsiveness may actually turn off some potential wavering voters.
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The Celebrity bollox endorsements are purely for self promotional purposes.
Another movie or album or tour perhaps. Stay in the spotlight says the manager and jump on the bandwagon. Need more likes somewhere and ultimately money.
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BTW, if you have time, watch the interview, its brilliant. Fetterman talks about some really interesting things and most definitely puts a major shift on your view of him from a humanity pov. This is exactly what Harris or Walz could of used. One of the things that really stuck with me was when he was talking about the millions that was used against him when running for the senate, it blows your mind that so much money is being spent on a job that pays less than 200k, which reinforces the dirty nature of politics and campaign contributions.
Trump on Rogan - 3 hrs, brilliant interview. Republican exposure. 45m views.
Vance on Rogan - 3 hrs, brilliant interview. Republican exposure. 14m views.
Fetterman on Rogan - 2 hrs, brilliant interview. Democrat exposure. 1.5m views.
Now Musk on Rogan - 2 1/2 hrs, havenāt watched. Most likely Republican exposure (unless he talks about non politics, I doubt it), 2.5m views.
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