US Election 2024

I know Biden might be showing signs of old age diseases but will people who voted him the first time round going to vote Trump, a convicted criminal, over him?

Maybe not, but if fewer people vote for him it’s still damaging.

The most confounding thing in all of American politics is the Obama-Trump voter. And there are a lot of them. If someone was capable of voting for Obama twice and then next time thought Trump was a viable option then any scenario you can think of for how a sizeable portion of the electorate will act is possible.

For lots of people, the problem with Trump was the tweeting - “I like what he’s done, but I wish he’d stop with the nasty tweeting”. It was a perspective born from being aware of the discourse, but none of the details. Still, people wanted that era to end so lots of people voted for Biden to bring normality back to politics. The Republicans changed nothing about their behavior and the impact on our civic life and so most of those voters were lined up ready to punish biden for it for failing to bring things back to normal like he promised, as if he had any sway over the way the opposition behave. Their vote for Biden in the first place was based on a pathetically trivial understanding of Trump’s term, which in turn means they are going to react to superficially trivial narratives about Biden’s term and make the transition back to Trump pretty easy to make. If they didnt move away from him because he was a despot trying to break the country for personal gain, then the claims about the danger of his second term are not going to land on fertile ground and stop them voting for him this time around.

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If my choice if Biden v Trump, then I will vote for Biden all day long. The top priority is stopping Trump, as he is so damaging for the country. He is hollowing everything out and elections, civil service, judges, the lot, will all be in his pocket. He simply must be stopped.

I fully expect Trump to win if his opponent is Biden. If the Dems choose someone else, they might yet get a bounce and some momentum.

Several capable people can make a much better case - outlining what the Biden government has achieved, painting a vision for the nation, and underscoring why Trump is not fit for the office.

Biden cannot make that case as he is past it.

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Nope, that’s fucking your wife, you can’t “unhear” that into talking.

I think they should start using uppercase on the teleprompter, with larger font.

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The democrats can’t win at this stage, even without Biden. It was possible, it’s not anymore as the horse has already “bolted”. The vast majority of Democrats in the house, senate have egg on their face, and those undecided voters on the fence will remember that.

I doubt any voters that have already decided to vote Biden, will change their vote, at best/worst, they will stay away from the polls (depending of their level of hate for Trump).

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Are people here taking the piss with the ‘fucking your wife’ thing? I don’t get it if they are.

It’s clear as all day what he said.

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I think there are three arguments to make on why the race is now unwinnable

  • The polls
  • Trust in dems has now eroded that no change in campaign will get people back onside
  • They dont have anyone in the wings with the talent to turn it around

I think all of them are weak arguments, but nonetheless it is a seriously uphill challenge now. Given the stakes of losing, I think Dems need to be thinking about something bigger than just winning the election, and have individual members think about more than just acting in a way that allows them to keep their jobs. What is a position in the opposition in the congress worth if the country slides into authoritarianism? If Trump wins, especially given he is likely to flip the senate as well, a serious opposition has to be in place to attempt to limit what he does. A party that just sleep walks into a Trump win is one that appears they dont believe all the crying about what a danger he is. If they think that then they need to fucking act like it now otherwise when they start raising issues once he takes office they are going to rightly be seen as unserious.

It is remarkable that right now I think Trump has taken the Dems closer to generational collapse than he has the GOP.

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This is American politics.

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I am not exactly following closely but I am surprised by the narrative changing pretty fast? I thought generally a few indicators showed the country doing well under Biden? Surely the Middle East situation wouldn’t have swing that much? I have always found US politics a circus clown show. And honestly Trump to me back then was saying alot of right things to me but execution was terrible and drastic. But now, the final straw is I cannot believe a country allowing a criminal to run for President, convicted just months before the election, that to me is the ultimate shit show, he should be disqualified.

For example?

I am always a supporter of controlled immigration and enforcing punishment on illegal immigration. That’s the idea.

But his execution of the wall is a ridiculous one.

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There has long been a big disconnect throughout his time in office between the normal sort of results and metrics that would allow an administration to be seen as successful and his approval ratings. I think there are several reasons for that which we could debate, but regardless it meant for him to win he was going to run a vigorous campaign because the chips had not fallen where you’d imagine they would naturally fall given their successes and the criminality of his opponent. Everyone was aware his age was a risk to being able to run that campaign and the debate and, even more importantly, his poor response to the criticism of his performance, has turned into a hair on fire moment that indicates that regardless of how good a job he might be able to claim he has done in office he is not capable of going through the rigors of campaigning to win it back.

We already have that. Trump’s rhetoric is based on a fabrication. Like Republicans now trying to push a bill that makes it illegal for non-citizens to vote, something that is already illegal.

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I know I have only a small sample size but almost every time I talk to a friend in the US who says they vote Democrat, always don’t really think much about enforcing laws on illegal immigration because of their supposed compassion and you are a bastard otherwise. I know there are always laws surrounding that but the reluctance to enforce is the problem. But then again, that is based on that few people I talked to.

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Trump was saying a lot of right things.

You mentioned one - his immigration policy, which was to build a wall which was never built and only resulted in sowing seeds of hatred against Latinos.

What other ‘right things’?

Sorry , just had to post this.

Why?

Again, such laws are already in place. It doesn’t make sense for someone to have their electoral decisions be driven by wanting to create laws that already exist. The existence of open borders, or even Dems who advocate for that simply is a fever dream of the republicans.

As for enforcing the existing laws, there is no real reluctance to enforce them, at least as it relates to border crossings (dealing with the status of people with long time residency here without documentation is a different issue) There is however an administrative bottle neck caused by a series of no longer fit for purpose rules the administration has to follow and a lack of willingness in congress to modernize the process to allow the government to deal with the situation adequately.