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Seems he likea shooting himself in the foot,why would he stop now.
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https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2063794856527270179
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2063797325898633682
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2063800193401737709
https://x.com/james_acton32/status/2063796674040901771
https://x.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/2063799018548068592
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Missile barrage incoming at Israel as we speak. What fucking idiots, the lot of them.
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Looks like the missiles are sufficiently restocked now
Yeah getting a steady dose of alarms today. First time since the ceasefire.
I did get offered $60k re-enlistment bonus to stay in past my current end date. Told them to shove it.
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Iran downed a US Apache helicopter with a shahed drone
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2064400724620914761
Sounds like inexperience and “poor flying” to me and that they got to close to the drone when they shot it down.
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There are reports that they were rescued by a Saronic Corsair drone, which is a first.
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Yeah, lol
I don’t subscribe to WSJ, but I see this
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2064383304141337010
https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/2064470316626186691
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2064461435153842568
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2064516379873571074
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2064516633331142855
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Trump’s rhetoric this morning is about making Iran pay a price, if that is matched by US attacks I expect Iranian retaliatory strikes will mean the end of the ceasefire. Oil market had been sanguine about it until about 20 minutes ago, but WTI and Brent are both spiking.
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Yepp
https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/2064665705488720308
But excuse me, it’s TOO LATE now. Iran knows it, everyone knows it.
US has critical lack of will. Iran has a lot of will. US does not have the resources in the region to force Iran’s hand and lacks the will to bring said resources (an army).
The US has wasted critical time and is now in significantly worse position than when the ceasefire first came into effect. No room for manouvre, no credible military threats due to critical lack of will. Therefore, lack of power.
This is so f-ing dumb.
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I think the other area where the US has wasted critical time is global oil reserves create a sort of runway for this conflict. The US has used up most of that runway, and is not materially ahead of where they were at the start of the conflict. Most of the models suggested sometime in early July was the point where real scarcity crisis would take hold - that is now three weeks.
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At the same time, Iran is making it politically impossible for the US not to respond, which serves them much more than the US. But that’s maybe why you don’t escalate to 100 on day 1 like the US and Israel did, since this clearly made those who run Iran aim for strategic humiliation of the US and especially Trump.
Iran is hitting US bases right now, so I think that is probably it for the ceasefire.
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I am not remotely convinced that Iran actually shot that helicopter down - the US narrative that a Shahed took it down doesn’t make a lot of sense except by some sort of crew error.
But writ large, yes - Iran isn’t willing to concede to US demands that it cannot enforce.
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Stay safe @Sweeting
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