You have to wonder if the Iranians have contingency plans to revert to the decision-making structure they used in the first couple of weeks, when the US was targeting centralized command and control. The US has resumed with that, and it is very easy to envision a scenario where the Iranian senior leadership simply gives up control of the retaliation process once again. The US strategy right now is both attacking that centralized control and relying on it to be able ensure that the situation does not revert back to the status of full exchange of hostilities.
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One of those market moments that will either make perfect sense or absolutely none at all. There is more money piling in on the short side then there is on the long side so prices are actually going down in this immediate crisis.
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Big News.
First to the not so surprising.Escalating to deescalate didn’t work, Iran not backing down, so we are on to the Step 2, which is the big news.
The US will invade Kharg Island to destroy the Iranian oil export. A terrible idea that will make it hard to deescalate within a short time frame.
https://x.com/Felix_Nuno/status/2065049258240127249
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2065048941972836804
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https://x.com/ariel_oseran/status/2065014864490143901
I got to say, they are certainly taking that blockade seriously at great political cost. On the other hand, pretty dumb move by these Indian ships, but I suppose they thought they were protected.
I have a saying.
“When in hole, stop digging.”
I don’t think they’re following that idea at the moment.
We are 4 weeks or so away from the floor of that hole giving way to a huge cavern.
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The deciding to invade Kharg Island on 11 of June (deciding to, not doing it, that will be long from now if it happens) seems extra specially dumb to me.
And once again, these morons have given Iran no incentive to deescalate unless Iran wants to surrender. And they are not going to surrender so easily.
This is a dumb plan. I get that it will grievously injure Iran economically, but it will also grieviously injure the rest of the world economically to a lesser extent.
I also get that this is supposed to be a threat and now Iran is supposed to back down under fire according to the Trump admin’s Hollywood script, and that Trump and the US really, really doesn’t want to go to war and want to get out. And that this is therefore a desperate “Please Work” move…
But it won’t work.
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Yeah my thoughts too. We must also remember that Iran is very adept at dealing with a smashed economy. They don’t care, they’ve been living in the gutter already. It will just harden their resolve.
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If anything, it creates an incentive for Iran to escalate beyond where they previously had. I would not want be near any Bahraini oil assets right now.
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The fact that the usa is invading other countries and doing all the illegal things it wants to , to feed its control of oil around the world is a fucking disgrace that the rest of the world is too shit scared to demand other nations boycott it/ start applying sanctions of this rouge country is beyond belief.
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Sorry guys,this is serious and all, but really this is just too good:
https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/2065062346918080911
https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/2065062772342210866
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Iran has nothing to gain by accepting the ceasefire on US terms. They gain much more by blocking the hormuz strait.
As you said , someone who’s drowning won’t mind taking a few more people along with him.
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Indeed but the US has fundamentally ignored how much “suffering” Iran can take. Bring crass, it’s like water off a ducks back to them.
Meanwhile, the rest of us will kick off when we can’t fill up our cars, or heat our homes.
I don’t know what USA hopes to achieve by invading Kharg Island aside from putting some soldiers well within the reach of Iran.
Then again, that’s Trump
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It’s off again. Trump reckons he’s got a deal.
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I’ll be interested to hear Iran’s version!
I figure we will be back at the ‘Lindsay Graham and Netanyahu say this is a betrayal of Israel’ stage by the weekend, where Trump tries to walk back some kind of element in a deal that is still not actually resolved anyway.
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I wonder when we reach the point where ; ‘It’s all Bibi’s fault anyway.’
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