Heard something today and I’ve no idea if it’s true.
Basically UAE and Qatar are funneling huge sums of money into Iran. That money is most likely coming from the US.
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Think Reuters reported it a couple/few days ago. Apparently it’s frozen Iranian fund held in UAE, and Qatar.
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Lots of details on the memorandum (not a peace deal), but I am not posting it, because I don’t yet trust it to be relevant (yet).
Because it’s unclear if Iran will accept that Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon. And if they don’t, then everything is meaningless, since Israel says they are not bound to this and will continue to respond to Hezbollah and certainly not withdraw.
But seems the Israeli retaliaton against Hezbollah, where they bombed Beirut, made the US concede more to get this over with, which is positive. But, I don’t know if it’s entirely over yet really. We shall see in the coming days.
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As I was saying
The “deal” is getting closer, but there is no deal yet. I would not be surprised if te Iranians delay it just to humiliate Trump even more. As for Lebanon, Iran doesn’t give a fuck about Lebanon, but Hezbollah is it’s most critical military proxy, so they will try to include Lebanon as best they can, as long as it does not run counter to core Iranian interests.
There had to be a sticking point,Trump wants to look pretty???
Netanyahu was never going to walk away because Trump told him to,as he got Trump to start it…back to the drawing board, most likely and peace #, who knows.?
Trump is pathetic!
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I would not underestimate how incredibly useful it is in the Arab Street for Iran to be taking up the mantle of the defender of all of Lebanon against Israel. In the Gulf States Saudi Arabia and Kuwait that is very obviously giving pause to what their governments do.
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I still can’t get my head around what has happened here: Trumpistan and its regional proxy attacked Iran with a series of official goals. As it seems, none of these goals will be achieved, and Trump will find himself with a situation far worse than before he started all this.
Maybe, there were hidden goals? Maybe, killing thousands and displacing hundreds of thousands people in Lebanon was one? Maybe, making money with these yo-yo announcements during months around the negociations and a deal with Iran was one as well?
Otherwise, Trumpistan’s credibility is lower than it has ever been since ages. Seriously, who can still take them seriously at this point? They are a freaking joke.
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Sure, sure, but note that they don’t any longer pretend to integrate Gaza or the West Bank, and in the West Bank, pogroms are now worse than ever. In Lebanon it is very different, Hezbollah attacked Israel on Iran’s orders against the wishes of all other Lebanese factions inlcluding of course its government. So Iran has obvious responsibility in Lebanon. And sure, they will try to include it as best they can.
After all, Hezbollah, acting as Iran’s proxy and betraying its own people, is directly responsible for the current tragedy in Lebanon. And given they are now a proxy for all to see (it can no longer be argued by anyone that Hezbollah has the core interests of Lebanon as a priority), Iran better help them make Israel withdraw.
But they may not be able to. For even though Iran activated Hezbollah, there is no direct link, only a proxy link (Hezbollah doesn’t wear Iranian uniforms etc.), so Israel can probably rightly argue that Hezbollah started it, and they will finish it etc.
It deepends on Iranian power. They have won this war, but their victory is extremely precarious and they may have to sacrifice chess pieces they have burned. We must be careful to overestimate Iranian victory, it is after all primarily political, not military and therefore they only get so many concessions outside Swan events.
But I hope that Lebanon will be included of course, but I am not entirely convinced it will be included fully. I think what is likely is that Israel just freezes offensive operations as a concession to the US, digs in, and hold a buffer territory unless Lebanon makes concessions directly to Israel in negotiations (which has been going on for months, but is very difficult since Lebanon cannot enforce the disarmament of Hezbollah that they have promised to do). Israel might be able to retain the freedom to respond to any attack by Hezbollah with overwhelming force, maybe even taking more land for buffer after a “deal”.
In short, Hezbollah has fucked Lebanon so over with their betrayal that the Lebanese will suffer for it for years to come. I don’t know what will happen, but I am not a big optimist there unless Hezbollah disarms (which I don’t believe they will do).
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Are the chances any more than zero that Trump would tell Israel to withdraw from Lebanon completely on pain of the ultimate sanction , i.e. no more US military co-operation ?
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I think it is higher than zero since it is erratic Trump, but still very low. Particularly since a lot of Trump’s backers will think the ultimate sanction is unfair on Israel and a prepostrious idea since “israel was attacked”.
Possible he will deny them military sales for specific stuff for a time period or something. Frankly I don’t know. I want to be careful with what I say here. I am making assumptions based on “normal” politics too, and Trump isn’t normal.
I think the most likely scenario is that Lebanon is not included officially (but is included unoficially), at least not in a “pact”, but that there is a deal where Israel deescalates but retains the freedom to retaliate with overwhelming force. I don’t think they will agree to withdraw fully from Lebanon unless Hezbollah or Lebanon makes big concessions to Israel and I don’t see the US forcing them to lose out on their war gains.
Hopefully I am wrong.
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https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/2066649084069368215
https://x.com/james_acton32/status/2066653457742807375
https://x.com/james_acton32/status/2066654436844278072
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"The project’s Maven Smart Systems (MSS) “enabled US forces to deploy over 2,000 munitions to 2,000 distinct targets within 96 hours during Operation Epic Fury.”
(Presumably including the one that hit the girls’ school.)
Elon Musk’s AI, Grok, was used in strikes in Iran, the Pentagon revealed
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I remember at the time that it was pointed out that the girls’ school was likely targeted because Musk had sacked the team that was supposed to check that kind of snafu didn’t happen. That one cruise missile cost more than all the wages of the sacked military personnel combined.
I wonder what the snafu rate for these systems is compared to human operators? Maybe when you are a trillionaire, a $3million pound missile must seem like loose change. Although, if a stray missile went through the fusilage of a private jet we would probably never hear the end of it. I suppose it’s different when it’s not little people.
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https://x.com/LizHurra/status/2067188311513280548
Same as yesterday when Israel also took a hill position. It is clear that they are now taking strategic castles and hills. I doubt this indicates any real offensive action though. More positional adjustments, for Israel clearly intends to hold ground.
Marco seems to be in great pain, which is rather understandable since he is the only one of those morons who understands what this is really about
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2067284897274663347
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Just in case someone has missed the peace deal. Such as it is.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/read-the-14-point-draft-memorandum-between-the-us-and-iran?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc4MTY1NjY2MywiZXhwIjoxNzgyMjYxNDYzLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUR1FUVkRUOTZPU0cwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI4M0Q4RjJERjFDQzA0MDFFQTlBNjg1RjY3N0FGQURERiJ9.Bq9TVRVNXZu1ep06Y3KiLnhlcb9SQ_ZKska1ZbY8yVM&leadSource=uverify%20wall
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lol … I said the same thing over in the US thread.
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