The Norwegian state is probably going to get a big surplus, as usual (it’s going to push up the price of Brent a lot). The Norwegian consumer however, will bleed (speaking as a consumer).
It’s going be a politiacal ruckus in Norway. Diesel and Petrol emergency subsidies were lifted a month ago, and before the king died, it was simmering. Now the long (far too long, but don’t get me started on the cult-like 2 week coverage of dear Harald’s death and funeral; he was a good man, but he was 89) period where the Norwegian media only writes about the king, is over.
And the political Palace Peace (which was honestly too long, do we live in the Middle Ages or a relatively socio-politically advanced Norway, I rethorically ask, as children and youth were told to basically not have fun for days after the king’s death) is over.
So now the Norwegian (political, it is about cost of living and economically unsustainable diesel and petrol prices for industry , as we don’t lack energy, obviousy) “Energy Crisis” starts again and there is going to be much daily drama ahead.
Today, at my closest petrol station, it was 3.14 US dollar per litre of petrol (or 2.72 EUR per litre, and diesel only slightly less). That is expensive.
Then again, I am sure most countries have smaller or larger domestic political problems because of energy prices. So nothing special. But it is getting expensive and problematic for those who live in rural areas where public transport is less good. Economic damage on industry is very real, particularly on the coast away from the hubs.
President Donald Trump sparked outrage after his administration was exposed for preparing a $2.8 billion military package amid “extraordinarily dire” economic signs — funded entirely by American taxpayers.
On Tuesday, The Washington Post revealed that the Trump administration was actively preparing to sell $2.8 billion worth of weapons to Israel, including 40,000 “controversial” 2,000-pound bombs, citing an anonymous U.S. official. While described as a sale, the Post noted that the “transaction is financed through a mechanism known as Foreign Military Financing,” in which American taxpayer dollars are transferred to Israel to fund the purchase.
Right-wing media figure Tucker Carlson expressed outrage on Tuesday over the arrangement, calling it a “gift” at the expense of American taxpayers in support of Israel’s siege on Gaza, which he labeled a “genocide,” as has a United Nations committee and countless human rights groups.
Author and writer Amani Al-Khatahtbeh accused Trump of “letting Israel rob America blind,” and urged Americans to “wake [the f—] up.” Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), once a fierce Trump ally, lashed out at the president for apparently greenlighting the deal.
“We did not vote for this. America does not support this,” Greene wrote in a social media post on X. “Our tax dollars and weapons have been used to kill tens of thousands of innocent people. My God, what comes next?”
Prominent tech vlogger Zack Nelson called the revelation “TRULY INSANE,” and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) vowed to fight to halt the weapons deal.
“This is beyond unacceptable and I am furious at this news,” Jayapal said in a statement published on social media. “US weapons are being used to perpetrate a genocide. This cannot continue in our name and I will be fighting in Congress to block this sale and all future weapons sales as long as the Israeli government continues to violate international humanitarian law.”
Cant wait to see him dismiss it as nothing and that the war that is not a war and has been won 100 times over is almost finished because they have no army left…
CBS ran this because that is the outlet the pics were sent to. Given how politically compromised they have become with the Ellison purchase and their promotion of Weiss to head their news, that seems a relevant decision by whomever sent the pics.
But this story has been bubbling under the surface for a while. The undercurrent of why the USS Lincoln had been so over extended was roundly reported as being because its main supply base, i think in Bahrain, had reportedly, off record, been destroyed. And that is just one example of many where the story likely requires significant loss of operational capacity in the region to explain it.
It’s about letting (non-Saudi) ships through the straight they control. In agreeing to this Trump has completely sold out the country he had reoriented our foreign policy around being even closer allies to, all in an attempt to temporarily relieve the pain his dumb decisions have wrought on the world.
The Saudis and other gulf states thought they had the inside lane to Trump’s favour because they were more capable of gratuitously and lavishly buying his favour. All it was ever going to mean was they’d wasted more money than anyone else when he inevitably fucks them over
The Taylor rule is an equation that helps the Fed decide what interest rates should be based on the how well we’re hitting targets for inflation and economic output. This is the Speaker of Iran’s parliment trolling to say they now need to also factor in how tightly choked off the two closed straights are
We’ve spent months questioning why the markets arent responding the way we expect to the oil shocks the earlier months of this conflict caused. It seems we’re finally there
A huge part of that is the simple fact that there have traditionally been some fairly robust relationships between the future price of crude, the spot delivery price of crude, and refining margins. Those relationships have now become completely unmoored.
Refining margins in some markets have become enormous, because demand has not declined much but refiners simply cannot secure crude to match it. In many markets that is a relationship that is normally seen in demand spikes (holiday weekends, etc) that cannot be met by refining capacity.
Similarly, the margin between future and spot has often approached zero, and in some periods has actually been negative. Now, in part due to the massive discount applied to future contracts that can be exited with force majeure clauses, the future price is simply not sending a robust price signal. The trouble with that is that that is the deep, reasonably transparent market with liquidity - hence the JP Morgan comment.
There is reason to believe the average spot price is far higher now than it was in May, even though the future prices are still below that peak.
It isn’t really economics anymore, more the working of the oil market. At the most basic level, because the futures contracts are now so uncertain, they simply aren’t worth as much as they would otherwise be. The price at physical delivery is much higher in much of the market - but we have minimal visibility.
KSA informed today that they will not deliver ANY petrolium to Europe, also next month. Which is not surprising given the damage, but a total disaster for Europe and the world (prices will spike).
