War in Iran : Trump's latest misadventure

Of course, the Arab states are using PAC like drunks.

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Before Groucho, even, but I agree; George had great style and delivery.

Americans complaining about petrol and diesel prices being 4 dollar a galon is the most pathetic shit you will ever read. It’s still super cheap.

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No Iranian democracy, pure dictatorial installation of “your guy”.

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Unless you have lived there, it is difficult to convey how dependent America’s working poor are on gasoline prices far below what is paid in most of the developed world.

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It is Thursday, so regime change is back among the primary objectives of the war.

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I know this and have been told this, I think by you and many others here, years ago. I have of course read this, know this, long before I joined the forum too. But it is a political choice to not have infrastructure and for public transport to be “low status” (only used by poor people and the needy).

But you are right. I must differentiate. I have of course sympathy and empathy with America’s poor. I just strongly, and have for decades, resent US petrol prices as unacceptably low and a major environmental issue.

But right you are. I will take it onboard and be less snarky. I just want US consumers to pay much more than what they currently pay now, in general. I am all for subsidising for the poor. But paying only 4 dollars for an entire galon is absurd in too many ways during these times. US petrol subsidies is an enormous problem for any sort of green action. But unrelated to this ofc.

I don’t think sympathy is necessary - that base is always substantially MAGA in much of the country. But it does mean that the coalition that drove the world to this precipice is splitting.

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Not my words, just posting this because I hope the back and forth posts about the sinking of the Iranian warship in International Waters, which was distasteful but not a crime, is not mentioned again in this thread.
After all, I would have hardly posted it and criticised it if I didn’t want to show case it as distasteful, but it is a super minor detail that should hardly create a big debate given the proportions of the unfolding disaster before us.

Of course, some will still likely post about it, but whatever

I get your point, but the gap in technology, and cost is simply ridiculous. I feel US/West didn’t take the drones seriously, and didn’t develop a more economic deterrence even though they had years (if not decades). I think a modern version of ZU-23 would have been more effective.

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Yeah, I have said this a depressing number of times, but only a few pick it up, since such matters is posted in the Russo-Ukrainian war thread.

But I agree ofc.

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It’s part rhetoric/propaganda, but I think there’s a truth in there.

The number of missiles Iran launched in the beginning was surprising considering their opponents were well-stocked with countermeasures. Perhaps they did use the old models to eat away the anti-missile missiles, and keeping the ‘good’ ones for more ‘precision’ strikes.

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Iran has denied that. They also denied the attack on some Turkish/US base, and the attack on Saudi refinery. These are either false-flag operations, or some renegade group has already developed and are operating outside the ‘central’ command.

Neither is comforting.

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I don’t think it was surprising at all (missile launched). It’s far less than during their 12 day war with Israel (the big ones). It was always known that the majority of their arsenal is short range BMs aimed at US bases and economical targets in the region, in case the US should seriously attack them.

Iran still has a lot of missiles, including long range. Their main limiting factos is transporter erector launchers and crews, that are being actively hunted, so they have no chance to shoot off these very large barrages. This is why they have failed to damage Israel apart from a few civilian hits.

But they have new missiles, I have posted such launches above (but without explanation because it takes a lot of time to write, so sometimes I trust that people watch the videos and take info out of them) of their newer types. Example from youtube:

They don’t have a lot of new bling bling, but some. But again, problem is transporter erector launchers, which is their limitation. They are losing a lof of them daily.

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Iran has confirmed that it has no control of the IRGC, who are operating on predetermined orders and in isolation. This has been reported above.

I literally posted above Iranian ballistic missiles hitting refineries in Bahrain and Abu Dabi. The idea that it is some false flag is absurd.
It’s IRGC, Islamic Resistance, Hezbollah, Khataib Hezbollah etc. Soon also Ansar Allah probably.

Launch against Incerlik, is also posted above, with relevant data and updates with Turkey claiming it was aimed at Cyprus.

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I think it’s lots more complicated (and terrifying).

I think Iran now has four power-centers/authorities:

  1. IRGC carrying out the attacks
  2. The traditional armed forces doing the defending
  3. The clerical council
  4. The government

While there are some contacts and coordination, there are simply too much gray areas.

So, it’s entirely possible that some Brigadier of the IRGC launched tossed some drones/missiles at the consultation of some Mullah in the Guardians Council while others are totally unware.

(I note that it is almost impossible to stage a “False Flag” with Ballistic Missiles").

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Would/Could Iran deliver a dirty bomb?

I guess not as there would have been some intelligence info in that direction but it would be the way to cause the larger splash.

If I show lack of patience, I apologice. I am a bit stressed out by all of this.

I intend no brusk attitute against anyone. I just get frustrated when data which is posted prior is ignored.

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