I am/ was indeed, and hate farage as much as everyone else .
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Not without it being shot down. Iranians are trapped.
Why is that an issue?
Where it is being shot down matters more.
I think it’s worse.
Not only the IRGC is out of control, there may be units operating outside the control of IRGC itself.
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Sounds extremely difficult, but theoretically possible.
Their enriched uranium is far below ground, it is not like they can just go get it easily and just place it in a canister that fits their missiles. But yes, it is a long term worry, since IRGC has activated everything, and their are famous for having the world’s largest sleeper cells globally.
So who knows, maybe there will be a dirty bomb in a container ship 2-3 months exploding in Seattle. It’s not at the top of my worries though, but absolutely a future Swan that the Americans and others must worry slightly about until Iranian enriched uranium is found and captured.
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only part of the picture.
Most interceptions are over the city or near the city - which is fine for it’s purpose. Targeting a refinery or similar facility would be also quite a score.
edit - launch 20, no 60, whatever, only one or two have to be intercepted over a populated region,
The bigger problem is the entire region fragmenting.
Yes, that too.
They have predetermined orders if command and control fails (Iran has admitted to this) and are following on own initiate an escalatory plan set by now dead IRGC leaders. Units are not in communication with each other, because if they communicate, they get bombed.
So yes, individual commanders is following a plan, but at own initiative as such.
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I agree with magnus there. There will be individual commanders aka warlords without a central command.
if Hungary invades Ukraine, would that mean the Hungarian Elections in April are cancelled?
Orban stays in Power!
Also, I am sure there is a large elements of “Oh, our guys bombed Abu Dai refinery ? Ah, so we are at that escalatory ladder. Ok, guys, Plan 3c, we strike Azerbadjan as stipulated in Plan 3c, which is dictated by Event so and so, because Israeli oil and so on”.
I obviously generalise here, but there is sure to be an element of this. They have clear escalatory plans, set in stone after the 12 Day war (Iran has said so). The Iranian Foreign Ministry is probably crying their tears out, but that doesn’t matter.
I think I overreacted emotionally to his speech. The Hungarian army is not poised for such an operation on the Ukrainian border at this moment (time will tell). If they attack Ukraine, it would likely go very badly for them.
But it will force Ukraine to redeploy forces, which will complicate their Order of Battle against Ru fronts, meaning a Ru Strategic Breakthrough becomes more likely. Tbh, I don’t know. It’s a new sudden worry (Orban whines about Ukraine daily, but this is much more serious) and everything else is happening at the same time.
Wait for movement of troops and more reports. I would like to see reactions of EU states and Czechia and Poland to this.
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Was a stray thought and as things are going, well, not so well I was wondering if there was a more desperate course they could take - but as I said, there likely would have been some chatter before had due the the complexity of getting it set up…
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I thought it was a ridiculous. Hungary (unlike Azerbaijan) don’t have the economic muscle, or a powerful backer. Then again, lunatics aren’t know for calculated moves.
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I’m really surprised by the robust response from Spain.
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They have Trump’s feelings (he loves them, Hungary is MAGAs primary EUR ally), but yes it is ridiculous. But that doesn’t mean it is not a major problem for Ukraine. Even a totally botched operation, or threat of it, forces redeployment of troops
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