Thai crew from the ship hit early today
IEA coordinates the largest ever release of strategic reserves to mitigate price impacts. Oil price is now right back where it was when they announced that, all it took was hitting two tankers.
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It’s 3 now
Saw some good analysis. In short global demand, it somewhere between 95M and 100M barrels a day. This crisis impacts 15M barrels a day.
Optimistically you might be able to reroute 4-5M through pipelines. IEA if they release similar amounts to prior conflicts would be about 4M. Which leaves global economy roughly 5-6M barrels a day short.
Its quite a big gap, not sure how long it will take for capacity to be able to meet demand.
edit. Couple of zeros missing from my numbers
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Yes was hoping to book flights from here in NZ to visit my new grandson in the UK in June, but so unsure with what is happening f#@k f#@k f@#k
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A random day in a WH meeting…:
DT: I think we have to go nuclear on their asses. We can’t have them being so disruptive. The oil must flow.
PH: I’ll get it done.
DT meant to get meaner, PH took it literally and pressed the button.
Is that too far of a stretch?
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https://xcancel.com/lrozen/status/2031544089590591863
In summary: Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and co misinterpreted the last Iran proposal because they didn’t bother to bring any experts who could explain it to them. Trump’s negotiators seemed to misunderstand Iranian positions, but acknowledge they probably could have gotten “Obama plus” deal.
(Credit: l69norm)
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They never wanted peace. Their plan was war all along.
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The failure to do so ranks with the GWB White House’s concoction of weapons of mass destruction in terms of criminality
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Speaking of criminality
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The colossal fuck-up here is that by obfuscating for a week, it has attracted more attention. Had they said what they KNEW a week ago (it was a US missile, and they fucked up by using intel), it would have been a mistake, not actually criminal. Horrible stuff like that happens in war. But by attracting the effort to demonstrate that it was a US missile, it now appears they have brought to light evidence that there was in fact a double-tap strike, which does constitute a war crime.
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This video is a nice catch ! It is actually filmed by the attackers !!!
This is the strike on the US oil tanker.
(and yes, IRGC squad got away in their boat from reports).
I didn’t post this at the time because I didn’t believe it, was just too daft.
After all, we knew from several leaks that Iran had yielded and was prepared for a JPOAC +, but those reports again said that by then, US +ISR had already decided to strike.
If this is true, then I suppose it might be evidence that maybe sending experts instead of your friend and your brother in law regarding high stakes diplomacy is more ideal.
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I am not exactly enjoying to be correct about such awful matters, but @Arminius , if I were you, I would study Mojtaba Khamenei’s latest statement, as well as recent statements by the IRGC (and may I note actions) quite in line with what I was saying the other day.
The US no longer controls the escalation (imo hasn’t for a while) and does not decide when this war is over. Iran is not looking for a Cease Fire in the coming weeks.
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F*cking barbarians…
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They sent Thing 1 and Thing 2 because this was never a negotiation in good faith. It was a stalling exercise to get their hardware in position for the attack.
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We have plenty of reason to believe they were not negotiating in good faith. However, I think it is also worth acknowledging that even if they were the negotiations wouldnt have looked too much different. Trump doesnt as much reject the concept of competency, but he doesnt even understand it. For him, the people closest to him are the best people for any big job regardless of the job.
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