I can understand that there was no clear strategic objective this formulating a clear tactical plan to go reach that objective is nigh on impossible. One would however think that career Naval Officers (sorry, warfighters) such as the commander of a Carrier Strike Group would surely have more nous, regardless of how thick his CiC and Secretary of Defense (Sorry, Sec of War) are.
The mental penny of this type of conflict just hasn’t dropped, has it? Probably the 20 intervening years of total malaise caused by beating up on foes that had no way to project any air or naval disruption coming home to roost.
I can tell you that from my perspective none of this feels planned. Feels like the only thing they thought was “how do we kill the guy?” And are just trying to figure everything else out on the fly.
Obviously can’t talk about some of the things I’m being asked to do but it’s enough to say that it’s outside of my experience and training.
That sounds quite scary. We occasionally get these circling overhead where we live. The aircraft are around 70 years old and it is rather disconcerting to think that you have this antique flying around with 100,000 litres of kerosene on board.
They can absorb it but that’s massive loss especially if the aircrews are also lost.
I’m sure a fine, upstanding Christian gentleman like President Trump must be devastated. He’ll probably put his hand in his pocket to make sure the less fortunate don’t go without.
They won’t, but they should indeed.
Wow, just wow. This guy is even more crazy than I thought.
Isn’t Mearsheimer a Putin apologist?
Stay safe, Sweetie.
I believe there are a crapload of factors converging on the stupid outcome, and the one you identify of beating straw men is absolutely one. Here are some others:
- US forces have seen massive attrition of flag/command level officers. Loads of early retirements etc, viz. how many different admirals have cycled through the forces tasked with killing Caribbean fishermen. No idea if it applies here, but quality such as it was is being replaced by ideological purity - see Red Army 1940 for how well that worked out.
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Naval warfare is changing in ways that established navies have not figured out yet - note that the Russian Black Sea fleet has been driven into ports that in some cases they have now walled off from the open sea…by an opponent with no navy. In a time like that, Item 1 becomes critical, you need critical thinking to react. Equally as critical is …
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White House and the highest level of the Pentagon are staffed by morons who want what they want and know they have the best toys. They don’t care that for 40+ years, USN doctrine would not have that CV within 100 kms of that position. Even the perimeter screen wouldn’t be that close to shore. So they are pushing around their toys on their big map, and some flag officer has to make it work…or just do what he is ordered to do. See Item 1.
What complicates it more is the fact that most countries (my beloved Bangladesh included) didn’t have any strategic stockpile, and they need immediate supply just avoid chaos (power outage, stalled production, etc.).
It’s obviously just for spite this (because Ukrainian anti-air drones are way, way better than American ones and have their software constantly upgraded). They also formally asked Ukraine for help (probably didn’t clear it with Putin’s orange boytoy).
Trump is more obsessed with Face than a Samurai from 1650.
Yeah, there are a lot of countries with a very slim margin for energy supply. We are very fortunate here to have independent oil supply (prices still high) and not a great deal of dependence on fossil fuel generation (with no shortage or even pricing pressure on natural gas used for CCGT electricity). We may well be the second-largest beneficiary of this war in economic terms, after Russia. Our first large scale LNG export facility just came on line last summer, and it is actually closer to the Pacific Rim markets than Qatar is. This conflict is moving the possibility of an Atlantic one aggressively up the agenda.
I have two questions
- Some tankers are turning-off their transponder and traveling through Strait of Hormuz by making them ‘invisible’. But since the Strait is too narrow, can’t they still be spotted with binoculars (powerful ones)?
- Why have Iran decided to hit the IT facilities? Is it purely because they offer some intelligence for the US-Israel, or is Iran targeting the second most important assets of the Gulf Kingdoms?
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Visible range from 30 meters in perfect conditions is about 20 km. At 1000 meters (north shore hills west and east of Bandar Abbas) it reaches out to over 100 km, so all the way across the Straits with the right gear from any OPs they might have set up. But some might be trying to run it at night.
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Probably a mixture of high profile US-owned target, plus maximizing economic disruption.
So…
Ukraine wants to help the invading force
Against a country being invaded
Just like them
And they believe doing so will mean the US will help them more?