oh man!
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How much has the Brent risen in last two weeks?
Oil Price Charts | Oilprice.com Oil Price Charts | Oilprice.com
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That’s an over 60% rise. How is US economy absorbing that?
How is the World economy going to absorb it? Incidentally, that figure is for Brent Crude, which is the main European measure (it’s named after an old Scottish oil field).
This is the American West Texas index. The price is lower, but the increase is similar until recently:
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That was my point about the spread. North American pipeline delivered oil is usually transacted as WTI
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Trumpists are too dense to understand that fucking up the world economy fucks the US too.
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Keep forcing other countries to deal with other currencies. Way to go dumpf.
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Iran’s strategy of attacking everyone carries political costs
Is this going to have any effect whatsoever? This feels like lighter than window dressing.
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It is.
But Iran’s continued attacks may led to something far more significant, such as Saudi Arabia invoking it’s defence treaty with Pakistan. Which it threatens to do. An intervention by multiple countries bordering Iran in a coalition is imo a far more plausible scenario than American tanks in Tehran…
It is certainly something that Iran risks.
Will it happen ? I don’t know, it depends on the damage Iran does and necessity. I mean, no one normally wants war if it’s not strictly necessary to the point where it outweighs the negatives and so on. But Self Defence is self defence, I don’t know how they calculate. There are US bases there, they are not going away, so as long as Iran continues to shoot, then there is an escalation dynamic involved. At some point, if enough damage is done, the Gulf States must some how directly intervene along with Saudi Arabia. Pakistan’s inclusion means that it is a viable solution with a regional invasion from a military technical point of view, though maybe not politically.
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I actually think Iran has been following a very precise escalation ladder, hence the energy for energy step in the last 36 hours. I would be surprised to see the Saudis ignore that logic. Their outward statements may be focused on Iran, but that may be a function of that being something they see as a control variable. There is clearly real anger at the US and Israel for constructing the situation
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I know.
But at some point, something must give. Either the US, Iran or the regional states. It’s a matter of time.
The obvious issue is that the Gult States cannot afford “Counter Value” bombing on their petrolium industry.
Iran literally hit their industry in response to Israeli strikes (staggering war crime, but we are kind of beyond that at this point anyway). It is different because it has no self defence legal rationale (it has a political cost rationale obviously) unlike the US basing. And Iran has claimed to only attack US and Israeli assets there, yet strikes Gulf energy with impunity.
It is hardly impunity when it is retaliatory. It will be interesting to see if Iranian energy assets are targeted again.
Meanwhile Bessent is saying Iranian oil will be allowed unimpeded transit
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Are these nations aware that they hold no sway over Iran, and some have been dedicatedly hostile towards it for decades? So, what does their denunciation count for? If anything, their attitude might be solidifying the support around the Tehran Regime. Don’t forget, kids got slaughtered.
Suppose, the Israel-US dream comes true and joint forces of Arab/Muslim nations manages to overthrow the Regime. What next? A splintered Iran with dozens of militant groups based on ethnic, and sectarian lines armed with drones, missiles, and some with enriched Uranium.
Are Karachi, Riyadh, Dubai, etc. prepared for IED, suicide-bombers on paragliders, and a plethora of other wonderful things.
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Seriously???
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I did mention that Pakistan would get involved in this. Their military rulers are anxious for infusion of funds.
Anyone who ever wargamed this in the Pentagon’s strategic simulations must be just holding their heads in their hands. Second most obvious button pushed
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