They are up now, the government An operation is underway related to multiple violations of Polish airspace. The military used armaments against the objects. I am in constant contact with the President and the Minister of Defense. I received a direct report from the operational commander. https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1965600876925764069
Spot on. This is deliberate provocation by Putin to test Nato and the EU.
If Poland is smart, they would invoke Article 5 which will push the US to pick their side and will show Trump to be the cowardly 2-faced lier that the world knows him to be.
Whilst other members of Nato and the EU won’t like it and will moan, they will do the right thing and come to Polands defense.
US in normal times would as well, but with Trump in charge, his handlers won’t allow him to go against Putins wishes
I don’t think that would get anything good done, in all honesty. Sounds good in theory but all that would lead to is inevitable escalation. The best thing to do is drop all restrictions on supplying Ukraine with what they need.
It will end up that way no matter what. Putin is only going to stop when the rest of Europe and the world stand up to him. It should have been done back in 2014 when they invaded Crimea or again in 2022 when they invaded Estern Ukraine, but everyone thought they could negotiate with Putin, but he will take the piss and do whatever he wants until phyisically removed from power.
Poland has requested to raise Article 4 I believe which basically gets all NATO round the table. Puts the US in an awkward position now. To me it looks likea decent play but I am far from being educated on these things. So if others that know more are happy to share whether it is a good move or not I’m fascinated.
Like yourself, I do not have an informed view here. My uninformed take is that Europe is the one that is in a awkward position. There is no stomach to call Putin’s bluff - in the end the blood of the West is too rich for any other soil than its own individual locales.
The problem with not calling Putin’s bluff is he will keep taking and taking. He has amply demonstrated that aim. Crimea annexed. Then a few years later an massive assault on Ukraine. While that is ongoing - and it is shameful that Ukraine has only been partially backed by the west, the probable outcome will be more loss of territory for Ukraine, to say nothing of the tragic loss of life. Can anybody say, confidently, that in time Russia won’t come for all of Ukraine?
What else? Poland being tested right now. Is NATO a thing any more? Putin wants to know. I’m sure he has his eye on the Baltic states too.
Keep appeasing him, and he will keep taking more.
The ugly truth is of course the nuclear arsenal behind him. I don’t think for one second he wants mutually assured destruction. He wants conquest and the ‘greatness’ of the old USSR borders being re-established. And that’s what he is on the way to getting, unless an adequate deterrence is established in Europe.
America is not a reliable ally. Arguably in a post Trump world they may come back toward Europe and NATO and things might be what they once were. But I wouldn’t fully bet on that.
Europe’s best bet is to prioritize an independent deterrence. It will be expensive, but what are the choices? To watch on as Putin keeps taking?
In the first instance back Ukraine to the hilt so they can defend their own country against the aggressor. But an independent European deterrence is a must. Putin, and unfortunately Trump, are showing that that is essential.
Yeah, there is no choice, back Ukraine to the hilt indeed, by any available means. But the aim for the EU to be self-sufficient is a long-term project as we know, maybe even a pipe-dream regarding the independence from US war material. The EU will eventually reinforce itself, but the question is: will Putin wait until the EU is ready?
I for one wouldn’t be surprised to see Putin continuing his provocations, and possibly, invade the Baltic states at some point, or Moldavia. He knows that the Nato has never been as weak as now - because of this gang of idiots in the US - and he knows that the EU aren’t ready for any kind of war at this point.
It’s not only a matter of war equipment, it’s the readiness from people in the Western democracies to put on a helmet and go on the front in order to be butchered by hundreds of thousands. The Ukraininans are incredibly brave and do it because their country is under direct attack. But will the French, British, Italians or Germans be willing to do that if, say, the Baltic states come under attack? My guess is that no-one around here is ready for that, and Putin will know that very well.
Anyway, as you wrote, he’s testing the waters right now. Anything but a harsh response which really hurts Russia, will be an invitation for them to expand their war against other European states.
I’m wondering whether changing their rules of engagement so that they can intercept over neighbouring countries with their permission may be an achievable resolution. That would piss of Putin, although given Poland neighbours Belarus, it could provide for a route to escalation.
No, I dont think so. My RW work colleague will not fight while Starmer is PM. I’m pretty sure that Putin is fully aware that countries in Europe and the UK are quite divided politically hiven the effort he’s put in to achieving that.
When I grew up, I naively thought Article 5 was automated. But like you allude to, it is not. At the same time, it is about credibility and states may come into the unfortunate position where they have to go to war to retain deterrance and credibility for the future. But indeed, it is not certain.
Not answering this provocation will lead to deeper and deeper Russian penetrations though. Already, we in Europe have normalised sabotage. We can therefore no longer react strongly to RU sabotage, we lack credibility to do so and show no will to retaliate with own sabotage. If there is no form of retaliation here, it will be a very successful Russian mission indeed; as they will once again have established a new pattern of what is acceptable or not.
Obviously, unless you are willing to eventually cut off a Russian finger, you will in the end, only have the choice of war or submission. So it’s in our interest to respond without dramatically escalating the situation.
Well done. Brazil show that their democracy is more robust than the US one. Had Trump received a similar prison sentence after the Capitol attack, nobody would need to contend with him and his moronic henchmen as we speak. But the US justice system failed miserably, shame on them.
I’m pretty sure that Putin is fully aware that countries in Europe and the UK are quite divided politically hiven the effort he’s put in to achieving that.