Let’s hope Trump sticks his big nose in again then. Herschel’s his boy after all.
Although I did hear one analyst suggesting that if control of the Senate depends on the run-off then that probably helps the Republicans.
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More than Greg Abbott?!
Oh boy 
Re:Nevada
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/
Here’s the math, folks: If there are 100K mail ballots left in Clark, which would make sense based on turnout there, and the Dems win by the 2-to-1 margin they have so far, CCM could come back to win. More uphill for Sisolak but he’s not quite dead yet. Also: 16K mail in Washoe.
Interesting that the candidates the national Dem party unexpectedly (controversially) campaigned against in their republican primaries all lost. 100% of them. They identified a group of around 20 MAGA candidates who were running better than expected in purple districts they’d normally expect to nominate a supposed normie republican. So they preemptively started attacking those candidates as too extreme for the district before they even got the Republican nomination. Rather than taking it at face value, almost every response to this was exquisitely galaxy brained, treating it as boosting these candidates as if they were campaigning for them. Tons of supposedly too smart opinion writers positioned this as being evidence that the concerns about democracy being at stake was fabricated…because if you really believed that you wouldnt “boost” these candidates.
Turns out the respective electorates did indeed see these candidates too extreme for the district and so rejected them, exactly what the DCCC leadership thought.
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Agree with that. Too many votes still to count. The opposite being true in Arizona. Kari Lake could still win, as she’s down by only .5% with 30% of the vote still to count.
Ralston was very bullish on the late Democratic mail in vote previously. I sense in that comment less confidence. Is that just hedging his bets and not wanting to speculate on generalities, or is he really seeing something in the data that is making him less confident in that?
Wisconsin won for the GOP.
Well fuck. So what is still outstanding in the senate? Just AZ, NV and GA?
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I have to read more to answer accuratly and I am a bit busy, but there will be a new election in Georgia I read now.
Google translate from Norwegian:
Neither candidate from the two major parties receives more than half of the vote in Georgia. The American media confirmed that on Wednesday evening. There will therefore be a new election on 6 December.
With 98 percent of the votes counted, Democrat Raphael Warnock (49.4 percent) has a narrow majority over Republican Herschel Walker (48.5 percent), but the problem for the former is that there is a third candidate in the mix: Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party.
He has received the remaining 2.1 percent.
And in Georgia, the rules are that to win you have to get more than half of the votes.
Since no one gets it, the two with the most votes, Warnock and Walker, advance to the next round
Edit: Arizona and Nevada remains. And then a new election in Georgia.
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That’s the AZ governor’s race though, not the Senate, right? Keri Lake I mean. Senate race looks good for the Dems.
Yes, but you’d expect very tight overlap between the two in ways that isnt always true. Any vote still out there for Lake will almost certainly also be a vote for Masters. As you say though, he’s just got more a gap to make up.
Seems to be a fairly high amount of vote splitting in this election
If the shoe was on the other foot, and it was Democrats putting in this kind of challenge during a Republican mid-term - there would be so many think pieces out already about the failure of ‘the left’.
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Agree. Mark Kelly is a popular incumbent senator married to a former congresswoman who was injured in a gun attack during a speaking engagement. Very sad. He will win.
The governor’s race, has no incumbent. Both candidates are seeking an open position, so no surprise that is closer.
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Yeah, there looks to be a bit of a rejection of the more Trumpy candidates in some places and so where there is distance between the party noms for Senate and Governor you see that. Georgia being a case in point. There are some factors that will see some difference between Lake and Masters (third party candidate siphoning off from masters, and running against a popular incumbant), but those two are peas in a pod and so it’s looking like Masters is getting about 99% of lake’s voters as well.
Either way, fingers crossed there arent enough votes out there even for lake
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Why do you always ignore Alaska??!?
This is also significant news. @Livvy may enjoy it.
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Who are they?
On a serious note though, it’s because the seat may not yet be decided, but its going GOP regardless.