I was wondering last night about the senate. It looks difficult for the Dems to take it right now but I saw not all senators were up for reelection right now? They use a staggered system? Does that mean that if even the Dems are down 1 seat from a majority that they could claim a senate majority in 2 years time if that is in fact when the next staggered election takes place?
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Yes, however probably more likely to happen if Trump is president.
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Yeah…midterms in two years. Less seats up for grabs though.
If they can get to 50-50 and Joe wins, Kamala would be the deciding vote.
Or perhaps they can get it in January.
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Yeah if Perdue comes under 50% in Georgia and apparently Republicans are worried about that then Georgia will hold two senate run offs in January, Georgia will be a hot bed of politics for a fair few weeks to come you feel.
Speaking of Georgia I think that is where you will see the next declaration however it may end up in a recount, I believe we’ve entered that terriority already and looking at the areas with the lowest vote count returned they all seem to lean Democrat.
Can’t see Biden getting over .5 lead or whatever to avoid a recount, a recount I doubt unless really close wouldn’t change much.
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I think one of the things about the continued failure to understand the latin demographic is that it is so well characterized by the likes of Carlos Odio and Equis, Maria Teresa Kumar and Voto Latino, and Chuck Rocha, and yet the establishment still fails to take in the message they delivering. If anyone wants to understand the complexity of the latin demo in the US id highly recommend searching out anything from any of these 3.
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Chuck Rocha worked for Sanders of course. His main message was ‘go out and actually talk to them’.
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Yes, 1/3 of the senate is up for election every 2 years, so there’ll be another 33 or so seats up in 2022. So part of how the senate map changes at any election is based on what the map looks like for the 1/3 up at that time. I dont know what the map for then will look like, but assuming Biden does get the white house, the chance of the country then voting in a Dem majority in the senate and giving them a trifecta is almost nil. When we do that, we only do it by accident all in the same election.
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Nate Silver is feeling the pain of the Kopstar Predictor
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324334255556730880
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Problem is Sanders isn’t taking those Cuban’s in Florida is he? The Trump message worked perfectly with them.
Democrats are at a cross road as I said before I think Harris bridges that perfectly, I would say Biden needs to win this to keep the Democrats stable otherwise it will fracture. Then again if Trump loses I’m not sure where the Republicans go. Trump is not unique in the history of US Presidents but you have to go back almost 200 years to find someone quite like him.
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Ha. He is such an innovator.
Sure, but there are more Puerto Ricans in Florida than there are Cubans, and these are far more consistently Dem than the Cubans are Republican. Just as importantly, they are largely concentrated in areas of Central Florida on the I4 corridor where there is already significant organizational structure. It doesn’t need anything new to be build to reach these people, just a change in approach of how to do it.
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That explains…
Yeah, I know, listened to an interview with him a while back and he said this really isn’t rocket science. What they did though during the primaries was reach out to people that apparently were never really approached, and that included going to where they work, after/before night shifts for example.
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I think the most interesting piece was him talking about their success in the NV caucus. The number of calls they had to make to get 1 person to come out for them was enormous. Simply throwing up an commercial on a spanish language TV station in an era when the majority of new latin voters dont even have cable just doesnt cut it.
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No, Nevada (NV) does not split votes, it is winner take all. The two states that split are Nebraska (NE) and Maine (ME)
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The postal vote is always more Democratic, but this year was exceptionally so. One party ran against the idea of them, the other made them the primary focus of their GOTV efforts.
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But it was massively in Miami Dade, I don’t know what Biden’s count with Puerto Rican’s is but Miami Dade seems to have resembled a block vote.
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