I do wonder if we might see a scenario like LBJ’s 1968 nomination campaign, where someone challenges the presumed automatic re-nomination of a sitting President. There are left-wing Democrats possibly disgruntled enough with Biden’s centrist instincts to mount a challenge. I could see it playing out in a very similar fashion, Biden not delivering a compelling early victory, and thus inviting other candidates to declare as well.
1 Like
That’s a good shout. Forgot about Johnson. Different circumstances for sure, but who knows what two years may bring.
Newsom clearly fancies himself. Maybe he’ll be the one to try to run through Biden. Could be a very interesting (and entertaining 2024).
I couldn’t remember the precise timeline of when RFK joined the race, thus opening it up. McCarthy was the only other national candidate for New Hampshire, and Johnson only won 46-42. RFK announced four days later, and fifteen days after that, Johnson withdrew.
One point that startled me was how late the New Hampshire primary actually was - March 12.
Dont forget Ted Kennedy opposing Carter’s reelection in 84. History tells us that a party opposing the renomination of its own president kills the reelection bid, but I suspect that is far more effect than cause, in that only incredibly vulnerable sitting presidents who are poised to lose reelection face a challenger from within their party. I don’t think that applies to Biden because for all the questions about whether he should stand again, the questions are less about his electability than other factors. So this could be one of the first real tests of whether an internal challenge bolsters or critically damages a sitting president.
Newsome has been running for president all his adult life. I think he’s actually missed his shot though. He is out of the Hillary book of how to politics, where he is stage managed to an inch of his life. I think politics has moved on from central casting era to one that favours authenticity (or perceived authenticity at least) and I just think Newsome will fail all of those tests in the minds of the voters, no matter how well his speeches are written or how good his hair looks.
Also remember he was once married to Kimberly Gilfoyle, the current lunatic partner of Don Jr. I dont think it should be underestimated how badly that that will reflect on him in a democratic party primary electorate.
I didn’t realize the Gilfoyle/Don Jr link, thanks for pointing that out.
I don’t know the mechanics of all this, but can the President run, win the election, using his name to do so, and then step down and give the VP the term to govern?
If so, that might be the way this plays out. There’s a lot to be said for being in the hot seat and having name recognition with the electorate, but for the life of me I can’t imagine Biden doing another four years, starting in 2024, as he is too old.
On an age related note, it needs to be amended. I think the Constitution says you have to be minimum age 35 to be President, presumably with the intent that you will have some life experience.
But then it says nothing about the other end of the scale, so we have Biden who will be well into his 80s if he does a second term, and Trump throwing his hat into the ring again, and he will be upper 70s at the start of a second term if it happens.
All that is to say, either remove the age barrier and let the people decide at the ballot box, or, tidy it up and give some consideration to what should happen for those who would be well into their retirement years in another profession.
Technically yes. Politically I think it would critically undermine whomever his VP was who got handed the reins.
Personally I’d like to see AOC come to the fore. Principled. Hard working. Young. Millennial. Photogenic.
Obviously left wing, but I’d like to see that sort of politics offered as a reasoned choice to the US electorate.
At present it is extreme right wing, or a toned down version in the name of trying to be moderate and electable.
Sod that!
I think there’s loads of room for someone who will make the case for better policies on education, work, infrastructure, climate, taxation, and so on.
1 Like
Jeeezus … I didn’t know that ! 
1 Like
I like AOC. I think her view point is important. More important though is the way she does politics. She is good at talking to people in a way that illustrates how policy has real life implications and so reaches people who might otherwise be disconnected from politics. But there are better messengers for her brand of politics, and there are other people whose strengths are more aligned to an executive role.
1 Like
With the coverage of AOC in right wing media, if she was up for election, it would drive the republican voters to the polls in a similar way Trump drives democrats to the polls (if maybe to a lesser extent). She may be great but the republican party would unify against her in a way it wouldn’t against most other candidates.
4 Likes
Agreed, I also think its important to understand that the job of being an executive is different than the day to day politics of being in congress. Being good at the later doesn’t mean you’d be good at the former. Evaluating someone’s legislative record is tough, because its not just about what bills you wrote, or even what bills you voted for or against. Sometimes its about how your voice crafts what the final legislation looks like. She might look poor in traditional legislative record metrics, but its clear her voice is very important and was an important ally in helping Biden pass his historic legislative agenda with such tight margins.
I also think the Dems need to be conscious of political life span. You have to take your shot at president when it presents itself, but Obama running that early in his career robbed the dems of 20 years or so of their best weapon in the day to day politics of being in congress. He still has influence, but as an ex president feels he needs to be judicious of the way he wields it. It’s great to close an election campaign by rolling him out, but there are 23 months of the election cycle where he is largely absent. We need to be conscious of not pulling big talents out of where they are doing important work too early in their career.
5 Likes
Good point on political lifespan, and the Obama example.
For my information, can a former President get a more ‘everyday’ job after their Presidency, by either serving in the House or Senate? Assuming they win their local election, of course.
Much like a former Prime Minister in England can continue as an MP, provided they win their local election?
It wouldn’t just be Republicans either. Sexism is alive and well right across the board , just ask Hillary.
They are not ineligible, but it would be very awkward. That usually proves true for PMs as ex-MPs as well, but with the American system it would be greater. Trying to recall, but I don’t think it has happened since before the Civil War.
1 Like
Technically, yes, but it would be an enormous divergence from what is expected of an ex president in the modern era.
Andrew Johnston eventually got elected to the Senate after leaving the white house after declining to run for a second term. But that was 150 years ago and his tenure as president was already an anomaly (not elected, then impeached, and finally just walked away from the job).
1 Like
Yeah, what with the $220K pension and the multimillion dollar book deals and serving on corporate boards and such, who needs it. There are political junkies, though. Jerry Brown was California governor for two terms in the 1970s and 1980s. He was then governor again for two more terms in the 2010s. Between those two stints he was mayor of the city of Oakland and California attorney general. Remarkable fellow. Much better than Gavin Newsom.
1 Like
Haha. I thought he owned the Supreme Court. Unanimous decision.
3 Likes
Oh Donny boy, the pipes the pipes are calling
From court to court, and down the mountain side
The summer’s gone, and all the roses falling
It’s you, it’s you must go and I must bide
I’m here all week.
4 Likes
So the committee’s got six weeks to do anything with them before the Republicans take over. Isn’t it the case also that there are serious penalties for anyone putting any of this information into the public domain ?
It looks to me like Trump’s delay tactics have allowed him to run out the clock again and escape any serious damage.