Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Signed - President Bonespurs.
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Oil prices are now falling drastically after Trump said now earlier today that he thought it was all over soon and that the US was way ahead of schedule in its war efforts. This is so funny to me (because it wonât end that soon).
From 119 to 87.5 dollars per barrel.
Comedy, except people die, it¨s an environmental disaster and people lose their livelihoods.
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Ticketmaster comes to a pain free settlement with the DoJ over their antitrust case.
I criticized Biden as much as anyone for his refusal to try to sell anything at all to the public about what they were doing to make peopleâs lives tangibly better, but what he did have in Lina Khan. She was out there taking on as many fights as she could with corporations about the way they infuriate consumers with deceptive and anti-competitive practices that we felt otherwise powerless to do anything about it. And one by one Trump is setting fire to all the work she did, proving yet again that the populists who thought he was fighting for them were suckers.
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At least some oil traders (and speculative money) are thinking this is a Taco trade. Trump will declare total victory and stop the war by the weekend, having achieved nothing. Iran will take the pause, it is really just a question of what Israel does.
I expect some very serious trading volatility in the oil and gas markets.
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With the greatest respect, this is not certain, because it goes contrary to what appears to be Iranâs Theory of Victory.
They want an end to the âgameâ, not a pause.
I will be delighted to be wrong ofc.
I donât think Iran ever actually wanted this war, so if they are offered a free exit, they will likely take it. For now.
However, I expect they will be re-investing in their capabilities to close the Hormuz. The citation you had above was indeed absurd, but I would not be surprised if Iran itself did not expect to be able to exert that much pressure that quickly. By tonnage, they have not done a lot to close it.
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We agree , of course, that Iran absolutely did not want this war. We do not agree that when they are in it, they will take just any route out for a pause that is not yet painful enough for the US economy. It depends on the route they are given out.
Iranâs main objective now is A) surival of its regime and B) ensuring that this does not happen in 5 years from now again.
But these are eggs I donât mind having in my face if you are right, but every expert I respect who have assessed Iranâs strategy, points to the opposite of what you are saying at current (likely this is not true, just those whom I have read and it makes sense to me and goes with Iranâs stated War Strategy).
You will note , you said the same about the Russians in the Russo-Ukrainian thread about them wanting a pause, I warned you then they donât necessarily use that kind of logic, and I ended up being right.
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My sense of what the Iranians will do if the US just abandon their efforts (assuming they also rein in Israel) is simply that they will have won a victory and will want to consolidate that. Their strategic situation since Hezbollah went off the rails has been fairly disastrous, and right now the TACO play would make it clear that the US is not capable of preventing Iran from causing enormous economic pain, to the US, to the Gulf, and indeed the entire world. That reconstitutes their position to a significant degree.
Is there an outcome that can produce Objective B? I am not sure there is until American power is reined in. But for Objective A, notwithstanding significant fatalities, I think Iran gets that from the âtaco playâ.
That said, I donât disagree with your logic at all. The key distinction between Russia-Ukraine and this is that Iran is on the wrong side of an asymmetric fight, where Russia simply isnât and ego is allowed to rein.
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I say this more seriously than it may sound, but you would have thought that a countryâs leader making himself a pariah on the world stage, conducting illegal operations affecting the civil liberties of people at home and abroad, would be a bit more circumspect of ushering in an era âwe can kill a leader of another country if we dont like who it isâ
On a genuinely flippant note I did chuckle at his âoh no, not another oneâ saying it was unacceptable to do all this and just end up with another Khamenei
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Oh how funny it would be to see the American media cry foul if another country took the same approach as America and decided to start endorsing state sponsored assassination of American leaders.
But then again America does have a track record of killing their own presidents.
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But so is Ukraine.
Everything you said above, about Iranian power, its proxies and more; is fundamentally true. This is why israel and the US attacked after all.
The problem here is that the stated US War Goals, as Iran understands them, are Regime Change and therefore survival of the state. It is not irrational of them to want to cause far greater economic pain to the US at current, despite taking one sided military and economical losses.
All I am saying is, that while you may be right, I donât actually think they are willing to stand down and accept a Cease Fire at current. The war is very, very young; much more political consequences can be placed at the feet of Trump. After the 12 Day war, Iran assessed that it was the most one sided war it had ever fought, so their careful calibrated strategy of seeking ceasefires after mere clashes, went out the window, it is claimed (using passive voice for a reason, since I am hardly the one who claims these things originally, I rely on experts to make my assessments).
All I am suggesting is wait. We have several credible reports that Trump wanted a ceasefire after the very first days, to then pressure diplomatically, then bomb more if Iran did not yield. They refused this approach.
In any case, it would be wonderful if you are correct, because Trump wants out. Will he be able to get out within a week or two? I donât think so.
Iran knows by now that the chances of a ground invasion is extremely slim after all. Time will tell anyway but I would be catious for now, while fervently hoping you are correct. And you may well be and I have obviously no problems with being wrongâŚ
This nonsense of America demanding who the leaders of countries are is bollocks , this problem really is simple to fix , China and Russia are allies with Iran, they simply tell america to fuck off and move nukes into Iranian terrorities , just as usa has done in European countries and state its new defensive policies to protect against American aggressionâŚitll be a modern day Warsaw pact .
America will soon fuck off out of the region.
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(not saying you should trust what he is saying, just that listening to it can be useful).
I donât want to google at current, was about to read a book.
But I fear it is a bit too early, global repercussions will get worse soon. I just think it is too early, but I may be wrong and I hope I am wrong.
Notable that Kamal Kharazi is a soft reformist, not a hardliner.
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The key difference between what Trump wanted after Day 3 and what the oil market suspects might be happening is that Iran will not agree to anything. Maybe not even a formal cease fire, because after all, the formalities have not been observed. It will be imperative for Iranâs position that they make absolutely no concessions to get some face-saving deal over the line. Any declaration of American victory will have to be absolutely unilateral.
That said, I suspect that impasse will give Netanyahu enough cover to keep firing, and that will make a blatant lie of the whole thing. But we have already seen that Israel is not in perfect alignment with the US, hence the Israelis destroying Iranian oil assets.
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In any case, I planned to read for a couple of hours now a novel. I will get to it 
Mental hygiene is a must when reading and watching too much about real world horrors.
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I think the justification on why they are there will simply get harder and harder. The fact it changes every five minutes doesnât help. Israel makes slightly more sense. But even then itâs all questionable on why now?
Also why I tend to stick to political rather than the war side of things. Politically this doesnât play well and Iâd be wary of tying yourself too close to these actions
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Strange, but disturbing development:
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Deffo Muslims fault the world over for America bombing Iran.
God these people are dumb.
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