He’s one of the very few to have redeemed himself post-Trump and the show with Katy Kay is always worth a listen. 
(I actually find it a little surprising , sucpicious even , that Trump hasn’t gone after him more.)
4 Likes
I’ll put this here as it’s a US issue for fuel pricing maybe
1 Like
It’s in Breaking News. I mulled putting it in the Iranian War thread, but found that it was a bit too speculative. But I have suspicions.
3 Likes
It’s not going to end well for Europe in the short term and medium term…
1 Like
Far too quick for me Magnus.
1 Like
We could buy oil using the Yuan I guess 
2 Likes
Mind you, I am not sure as to the accuracy of Trump refusing to sell LNG if the trade deal is not signed with favorable terms to the US, but the timing is of course awful and the post was otherwise interesting (but I do not know how credible everything he said was, as this is not my field really).
2 Likes
I can not help thinking Europe has strategically fucked up.
I mean France favouring Morocco over Algeria and creating silly disputes with Algeria, deliberately, will surely go down in history as a massive mistake.
Anyway politics has been such a load of crap for soo long you just don’t know where to start.
1 Like
Fucked up in what exactly bud?
Well in this instance energy. Gas was like the energy for heating 20 years ago and hasn’t really changed that much. Yet Europe didn’t strategically plan for this. Germany and Northern Europe went with Russia. The rest stayed with reliance on procurement with the dollar. Algeria was left to form alliance with Russia (mainly due to the RW concept that they owed ‘us’).
Europe is the largest trading bloc in the world yet it’s influence has fallen to laughable levels. Completely reliant on the USA. It’s like our only out now is to either remain with the USA and have an unreliable partner or cosy up to China.
If Europe has the balls to actively undermine the USA we will just be left vulnerable to the moods of whoever they elect.
We sit here watching the world burn!
3 Likes
Someone posted this as a reminder of toxic orange post back in Aug-2024.
3 Likes
An important correction on this common misperception. Even on the left now there is a perception that Biden bungled the border by acquiescing the lefty “groups” creating new policy that was far too accommodating, and that just did not happen.
I think one of the lessons of all of this is unfortunately a validation of the Trump/miller view on immigration enforcement - you can alter the traffic to the border (where asylum cases are submitted, both legitimate and dubious) with changes only in the perception of how the system will treat you. You remove from office someone viewed as a monster who will treat you inhumanely and all of a sudden traffic increases even without substantive changes in policy in terms of who was let in and through which programs.
1 Like
The fundamental problem is that natural gas has been so cheap for the past 20 years, with only a couple of recent blips - neither of which create a compelling condition for capital investment. One doesn’t build a business plan for a 30 year asset around covid assumptions, and the average price available in the market has not been high enough to make investing in additional capacity compelling.
This is really clear in looking at the current status of LNG export facilities in Eastern Canada - right now, there are none. Two are fully permitted, one having reached that status over a decade ago. There are three major projects in development, two in Nova Scotia (pipeline terminals), one in Newfoundland which would operate as the hub for development of a currently unexploited offshore natural gas field. That one would exist purely for exports, as it is over 1500 km away from the east-west pipeline that is the primary conduit for natural gas in the Canadian market. It has only recently started moving forward again, notably because of active interest from the EU.
3 Likes
The result is the first day I can recall where WTI has been climbing faster than Brent - which is really bizarre. Price at the pump should go up, but this should actually taper demand for WTI until Valero PA comes back online.
4 Likes
Which brings us back to electricity and renewables. In the case of France nuclear, yet despite nuclear we were subject to price hikes with increases in oil prices (which here influenced gas prices as well). The systems in place are bent, at least here.
Still I think better relations with Algeria could have helped France and Southern Europe.
Total Fina Elf are a total fuck up here as well. At least they gave us Sanofi … oh wait!
1 Like
I wouldn’t call that ‘bent’, it is just how power markets work. The last unit to produce (marginal supply) to meet the amount required by the grid operator to clear demand is the one that sets price. In almost every power market now, the price is set by combined cycle natural gas turbines. Every other producer earns that price even though they were willing to supply at a lower price. There are some assets (French nuclear being one, in our market hydroelectric works that way as well as nuclear) that have a guaranteed amount to supply, and don’t see the full price as a result - but at the consumption level that ends up not mattering.
The result of the unified European power market is that an increase in natural gas prices goes right to the price of electricity, even in places where the actual generation portfolio skews well away from natural gas - just look at Denmark, where a very large percentage of energy consumed is from wind, but consumers pay a price fundamentally dictated by NordPool prices.
1 Like
Whenever I hear Trump say something totally unhinged like this I always laugh imaging what the conversation actually was where this idea was first raised to him.
4 Likes
Saying that is just acceptance. Oh it’s normal!
Why is it normal?
It shouldn’t be normal!
So it’s bent!
It’s part of a system that’s fucking us over.
Anyway governments were rubbing their hands together with the increase in petrol prices. More tax revenue coming in. Is that what it’s all about?
This is a topic that is worthy of discussion in a different thread. I’ve been pondering why the UK government doesn’t break the link between the highest unit price of generating and bills.
It’s for a different thread.
2 Likes