Does it come with Signal pre-installed?
It will be absolutely hilarious when the NSA says the Trump phone is not safe for government use.
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Its fake news.
Russia would never issue ultimatum on behalf of Iran.
The problem is not your sources themselves, normally good, but that they make the dire mistake it is to quote Clash Report uncritically. Clash Report is a Turkish propaganda outlet and has released countless fictious statements since the war in Gaza began. When it comes to the Russo-Ukrainian War, they used to report (other outlets) correctly, but since 7 october it is selective propaganda and very often they just make shit up like in this case.
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Any idea/update why the Pakistan FM met Trump?
Crane operator for president!
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I have absolutely no insight as to what actually happened this time around (though I take Modi at his word in this instance). But since the times of Nehru, it is has been axiomatic in dealing with India that being seen to take direction from the US/the West is counterproductive, so any efforts at brokerage are necessarily low-key if they are to be effective.
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I donât know why I even bother trying to help with facts and explain why a statement is false or correct anymore. It is clearly not appreciated. This is the second time in less than a week. No response. I mean, ok.
The Cruz-Carlson interview above reveals a lot of the problem I see here in America when it comes to Israel. There is Old Testament Israel, New Testament Israel (which is the church, theologically speaking) and then modern nation state Israel, set up post-Holocaust. I might even add a fourth Israel, which is Netanyahu and his government, as they are Zionist bullies in the region and pushing the envelope further than it was intended to be when the modern country of Israel was set up.
Americans identify with Old Testament Israel through their own story of taking the âpromised landâ, via manifest destiny, from sea to shining sea. Then they conflate that version of Israel - from 2000+ years ago in history, and crucially no longer relevant - with the current Israel government. Itâs a massive misapplication and it prompts people in America to go all googly-eyed in wanting to support Israel at all costs.
Tucker Carlson was actually onto something in the interview there, but he didnât fully nail it down. America needs a theologian and a historian to educate the masses and decouple itself from this nonsense, but that wonât happen. Why?
Consider the military industrial complex and modern geopolitics and it is a complete shitshow.
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I just donât get how people fall for something that on its face is clearly improbable.
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Iâm still shook by the Shoot front cover reporting Rush had signed for Everton. It was an April fools joke but Iâve still got scars
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Lack of geopolitical knowledge (which is common). I am not critical of Livvy. I donât expect her to know why it was improbable. But i am disappointed with Pekka (the Fin). He should fucking know better.
I had maybe expected Livvy to thank me though, since its what I always do when someone corrects me if I have posted incorrect information. So a bit perplexing that she doesnt seem to appreciate it tbh. She didnt thank me last time either, which is why i find it odd in the first place.
If you donât most of us will be none the wiser.
Itâs important to me.
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Thank you. I appreciate that.
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Well that was an emotional flag hoisting what with the crane operator falling asleep.
Then an old man having to excuse himself because he was having a heart attack.
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Regarding what was mentioned above concerning the fear of the US entering a quagmire. I assess that to be very low myself for a variety of reasons which I shall now endevour to explain (if my cozy cat leaves me alone enough for me to write):
There is no invasion of Iran planned. So there will be (if even that) merely special forces raids at most. If the US enters, it will be via air campaign. No assets have been moved to support an invasion and I do not see this being planned (or even wanted).
A long protracted indecisive conflict is unlikely if the US enters, using itâs air power like in Serbia, to achieve specific goals (of course, mission creep is possible if someone is witless); since this air power will be overwhelmingly devastating and result in either Iran submitting or The Islamic Republic disintegrating (not unlikely).
The main worry is actually that the US and Trump sees that there is no quagmire apparant, and therefore shoots because âIsrael has done half the jobâ. The consequences will be severe, but more for Europe and the Middle East (as well as economically, oil prices will sky rocket and it is possible that Iran can manage to close the Straits of Hormuz and make it even worse for the global economy).
The point I am trying to make is that Israel and US can shoot, go away, but it is we in Europe that must pay the cost (as well as ME of course). We cannot walk away. We do not have that prerogative, and yet, we are without power to stop this unfortunately.
The main risks the US faces, is alpha strike on US bases in the Gulf States, with possible severe loss of life and equippment (no big deal on a macro scale). The second is assymetric IRGC supported attacks on US mainland (difficult for them, but absolutely possible).
But the main risk is the disintegration of Iran into warlord enclaves like in Libya. This will be a total disaster for the world but America can insulate itself from this fairly well (obviously loss of soft power and standing, but US is losing this anyway).
Itâs always also worth mentioning that if the US enters and it gets a bit protracted with Iran not standing down and the US use much of its relevant ammunition, the chance of China invading Taiwan when US is low on relevant ammo, will not be 0.
It is more the Butterfly Effects for the wider world really, that is the main danger with an Iranian state collapse or a protracted conflict (it will quickly get one-sided, arguably it already is). But I donât think the conflict will be that protracted myself if the US enters. But even so, I am very afraid of the consequences if it does. I donât think Israeli bombing alone will topple the regime, but I believe the risk of that happening as a consequence to far more overwhelming US bombing, to be quite high.
So why donât I want the regime to fall ? I do ! But not like this. Why ? Because the only one the Israelis and Americans prop up as a substitute, is Pahvlavi, who is hated in Iran and popular only with a few very vocal exile Iranians. The Shah fell for a reason.
I note also that Iran has allowed several hundreds (probably thousands) of Al Qaida warriors to settle, as the IRGC sees them as allies and internally in l Qaida, the fitna between Sunni and Shia has been mostly resolved; as they agree to focus externally (this is actually not widely known by most people, but Al Qaida today recruits Shia Muslims too and many of them).
Here is an article from 2024 talking about some of this, if you want a quick source:
So yes, I am not worried for the US, I am worried for the rest of the world. The US and Israel can mostly shoot and go away when the shooting is done, but the rest of us must pick up the pieces. This is also why it may be tempting for Trump to join (they certainly donât care about us in Europe or the Middle East who must take in refugee floods and deal with minor wars that will come later, as an effect of a geopolitical natural hegemon, like Iran is, imploding. Iran will rise again, history shows that, but for a time (could be a century or less), Persia could disintegrate into enclaves and this is terribly dangerous.
Everyone would do well to remember that the Israelis call their operation Rising Lion (hint, hint, hint, hint, go look at Iranâs old flag, hint again) and not Operation Denuclearisation. The obvious unstated Israeli objective, that they push for (itâs why Netanyahu is pushing Trump to be allowed to kill Khamenei), is Regime Change. Israel seeks to permanently settle the score and get rid of a strategic enemy and the only way they can do this is if the Islamic Republic falls. Taking out the nuclear program and military industrial capacity is of course also the objective (and it will be an utter disastrous failure if the nuclear program survives), but these are Minimalist War Goals (i.e. Israel will not end the conflict without them having been achieved, while they may agree to end it before they reach their maximalist war goals).
So what can potentially happen, is that we have a protracted bombing campaign leading to the destruction of the Islamic Republic, which again will make the ME even less stable. I personally assess the likelyhood of the US or Israel managing to install the Shah as low indeed.
But of course, I may be wrong, at least partly. I think I have covered most of it now, but probably forgotten some important points as this is not exactly a planned post, but ad-hoc from the top of my brain.
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https://x.com/derJamesJackson/status/1934989218326938013?t=B3SZ_-dmCUEShMPCFUbtqA&s=19
Can Someone tell me whatâs the difference between Israel and Pakistan again.
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This is the harshest I have heard so far. Some roast.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1935362792917201398
This is obviously a disgrace (I mean the Juve players not wearing suits), but can we stop for a moment to recognize how funny one of Trumpâs common lines aired here is
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1935417973348442418
âTransgender for everybodyâ. His inability to construct a real sentence makes it sound like he thinks its just a Dr runing around frantically transing everyone they can find. Maybe he does think that is what it is
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He has a plan if things go wrong, he says. You will of course all trust that he is perfectly honest here
https://x.com/lrozen/status/1935425508696539149