At times when about a quarter of the voters would vote for AfD I am tempted to say that we deserve such a shitshow. But the things at stake are far too important. Merz is not my favorite man but we absolutely need a government that starts working. A really depressing day and all those who enjoy today’s event are either lost for our democracy or depressingly stupid.
We’ve had 16 years of Merkel. 16. That ended not even 4 years ago. One failed coalition, which still managed to last for almost the entire term.
The rise of the AfD is a major worry of course, but in terms of stability so far we’re still not that bad compared to a lot of other major countries.
@grok
what are top 3 reasons Friedrich Merz failed to pass first round on May 6, 2025. Order by probability descending.
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His Own Party’s Rebels Stabbed Him in the Back (High Probability)
Merz’s CDU/CSU and their SPD coalition buddies should’ve had the votes to push him over the 316 mark in the Bundestag, but he only got 310. That means at least 18 MPs from his own side didn’t back him in the secret ballot. Ouch. Word on the street is that Merz isn’t exactly Mr. Popular, even among his own conservatives. Some of them probably see him as a liability after his questionable plays—like cozying up to the far-right AfD earlier this year on immigration stuff. That move already had folks like Angela Merkel calling him out, and it looks like some CDU MPs might’ve used the secret vote to send him a message: “We’re not your fan club, Friedrich.” -
The Far-Right Fiasco Still Haunts Him (Moderate Probability)
Back in February, Merz thought he was being clever by aligning with the AfD to push tough immigration laws, trying to ride the wave of public anger after some high-profile attacks. Big mistake. That gambit cost him—polls showed his conservatives dropping 2 points, and it cracked open a schism in his party. Some MPs and voters never forgave him for breaking the post-WWII taboo of working with the far right. On voting day, that lingering resentment might’ve turned coalition MPs against him, even if they weren’t vocal about it. Merz tried to play hardball, but he ended up with a black eye. -
He’s Just Not That Guy (Lower Probability)
Let’s be real—Merz might’ve won the election in February, but that doesn’t mean everyone’s sold on him as chancellor material. At 69, he’s been pitching himself as the guy to fix Germany’s economic woes, but his vibe screams “stiff suit who’s out of touch.” Some MPs, even in his coalition, might’ve hesitated because they’re not convinced he’s the leader Germany needs right now, especially with global turbulence and a DAX index that tanked after his failure. It’s a gut feeling more than hard evidence, but Merz’s lack of charisma could’ve made a few MPs go, “Nah, let’s see if someone better comes along.”
This whole thing’s a historic embarrassment for Merz—first time in post-war Germany a chancellor candidate flunked the first round. He’s not out yet, but he’s definitely sweating. What do you think, did I miss something?
Is that how ‘grok’ writes? Can definitely tell it’s a Musk product.
Anyway, let’s hope they vote again today. If that one doesn’t go through either I’ll get a lot more worried.
If I’ve understood correctly, the CDU has had a resolution not to cooperate with the Left Party for years. To hold another election today, however, the CDU would have to approach the Left Party and obtain its consent. (because you would need a 2/3 majority for an Amendment to the Rules of Procedure.
(Unvereinbarkeitsbeschluss/Incompatibility decision)
Edit
As it looks they got it done. There will be another vote later today.
Of course, I won’t dispute that. But it’s the recent trend which is worrying. The AfD started its rise at national level when, maybe 10 years ago, after the wave of Syrian refugees?
Since then, things have been worse and worse, also under the late reign of Merkel. Looking at the situation, I wonder where we’ll be in ten years from now… 
See, just a warning shot. I wouldn’t have done it personally, but we’re a parliamentary democracy after all and this was a reminder.
Yeah, but the ones that delivered this “warning shot” made the AfD champions of the day for a short while and even made possible that the AfD would vote for merz in the second round which would have been a disaster. Therefore I do not have the slightest bit of good feelings for these people.
But you are very right in stressing that our parliamentary democracy handled it. Big relief.
Yeah, it’s a relief. Not that I’m a big fan of Merz or something, but stability is most definitely needed.