So the most likely coalition is red, green, yellow according to the experts, but I can’t see that lasting. Not looking good for stability.
It’s still too close to call. “Traffic light” and “Jamaica” are both viable options. Greens and Liberals (FDP) clearly “kingmaker” and are now considering to compare notes first before trilateral talks would start. Interesting tactical move to up stakes tbf.
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On the other hand, it will depend on how far the CDU moves to stay in power. In a TV interview right now I had the impression that they still don’t really take the Greens seriously. They will probably only very slowly understand what is in store for them now.
It looks a bit as if they still think they can go on as before, with maybe a little bit more green than usual.
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If the Greens make loser Laschet chancellor 
On the other hand they’ll have completed their journey from an anti-establishment party to the centre. Not sure their base would be happy though.
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But how can the FDP support red/green policies?
How can the Greens support black/yellow policies?
Game of chicken now.
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Exactly, but somehow think the greens might be more flexible.
The only FDP policies I like are cutting bureaucracy and supporting the self-employed.
Obviously we all like tax cuts, but not at the expense of services.
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Yeah, I agree with the first sentence. But if they make Laschet Kanzler, who is extremely unpopular, got less votes than Scholz and the worst result in party history and is basically a villain to the Green base after Hambacher Forst… tough sell. Also probably would mean going back to being perceived as just a one issue party (climate).
Worth remembering that it was the Liberals that blew up the ‘Jamaica coalition’ talks last time, not the Greens, because they felt the Greens were getting too many concessions. I doubt there would need be less of that those time around. But then their voters probably don’t care anyway.
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Jamaica coalitions might work at state level, but I just can’t see it nationally. Even if they reach an agreement, it’ll all blow up after six months. Laschet is not conceivable as chancellor.
The only realistic, if unexciting, solution is a Scholz led GC.
What are the motivations for keeping SDP out of government, aside from keeping them out of government?
Traffic light, if they play it right.
We’ll see.
Surely most mainstream parties would incorporate a lot of traditional “green” politics now anyway? Surely they wouldn’t lose too much political capital with acceding to some more green initiatives?
The FDP are free market capitalists. Thatcherites if you like. They don’t like any regulations or restraints on business and are thus generally against any moves towards environmental protection.
The CDU are socially conservative, but not radical free marketeers like the UK Conservatives. Some of their ideas can actually overlap with the Greens when it comes to conservation, but they are socially conservative, which is in conflict with Green policy.
The SPD has its roots in the unions, like the Labour party, and this can lead to support for old fashioned industry at the expense of the environment.
All the parties pay lip service to Green policies, but they would all have to compromise in one way or another in order to form a coalition.
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I would appeal to each of the three Ampel ‘traffic lights’ parties not to fall into the trap of looking too much at what their grassroots membership will agree to. Let the new parliamentarians have the greatest say. There are worrying signs today that exactly what I fear is going to happen in the case of the Social Democrats.
Not that much wiggle room for the SPD, they’ve ruled out a coalition with the CDU which means they have to find agreement with the Greens and FDP if they want to govern.
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I don’t think there’s too much wiggle room for any of the three parties tbh, traffic light has to happen and I think they all know it.
Personally think that coalition might actually be good for the country. Of course there’s always room for people to fuck things up though.
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What about CDU? I read CSU is pondering to offer its leader as Chancellor since Laschet is deemed as lame.
They’ve been ‘offering’ their beloved leader as chancellor the whole time… 
Not going to happen imo. The fella is positioning himself for the next election though.
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Er ist ein Arschloch
Soeben hat der Ampel-Zug den Bahnhof verlassen. Zum 1. Mal seit 41 J (Schmidt/Genscher) sprechen FDP & SPD (und Grüne) ernsthaft über eine Koalition. CDU/CSU sind Beobachter. Wir müssen jetzt unsere Hausaufgaben machen und zeigen, dass wir die Lektion vom 26.9. verstanden haben.
Translated from German by
The traffic light train has just left the station. For the first time since 41 years (Schmidt / Genscher) the FDP & SPD (and the Greens) are seriously talking about a coalition. CDU / CSU are observers. We must now do our homework and show that we have learned the 9/26 lesson. have understood.
There really is no other realistic choice, but the chances of this coalition holding together for a full term are slim in my opinion. Free marketeers and Ecologists have very little in common and there are so many potential conflicts that it’s hard to be optimistic.
Interestingly, the FDP and the Greens are the two parties most favoured by younger voters.