I agree that it would be harsh. My view is that most handball decisions over the past two years have been crazy harsh. But in the wider context, the issue of bias in refs is the problem.
In an unbiased ref, close 50/50 calls you would expect to even out after a large number of games. Maybe there will be a plus one or a minus two from the norm due to natural variance.
The issue is that if you look at close decisions, we more often than not get on the wrong end of the decision. In other words, we statistically get shafted towards the extremes in the negative direction. If it happens over one or two seasons, then ok, could just be extreme natural variance.
But to happen over a statistically significant period, there will be underlying issues. One of course was the Fergie effect (plenty of comments from Gary Neville how they would wind up the ref). Today, it’s more about how other teams play on the edge of the rules, whereas for the most part, we are respectful to the ref. See how other teams get in the ear of the ref.
I’m not saying there is a huge conspiracy (there isn’t) There doesn’t need to be.
Take a roulette table in a casino. The house edge guarantees a profit over the long term. Now if someone finds a weakness (manufacturing defect, lazy staff, etc), and finds out before the casino itself (who will have software to analyze the data), then they could eat into the house edge. Think Man City and the tactical fouling.
Then of course, there is the media. Think of the difference in coverage between Salah and golden boy Harry Kane. When every media outlet is screaming about how Mo goes down easily, then the ref will consume this and it will play on his mind during the game. Mo goes down in the game, then the ref second guesses himself and in 50/50 decisions, will play on.
Last week, Greenwood handballs against Villa at 2-1. His hand is way above his head. Ref deems it natural (very arguable) and close proximity. Then look at the handballs given against us.
Going back to the Bailly incident. There is also the VAR problem in terms of technicalities. If the ref gave a freekick outside the area, then VAR would’ve intervened to upgrade it to a penalty by checking of it was outside or inside the area (see the Fab penalty against the Blades earlier in the season).
As it was given a pen, then VAR can actually get involved to review the tackle, which it couldn’t do in the Fab penalty. Stupid as it creates two different outcomes for more or less the same (well Bailly’s was more egregious) incident.
