One more Spurs goal and no one will have won from 3rd to 8th place.
Newcastle having some season.
There last 5 have been top form, Spurs are worse than us mind so maybe it shouldnât have been that unpredictable
Depends what you base that on, form over the last 1 game, 3 games? 6 games? 10 games? our history?
Current form and we all know what you did in the last 5 games is not important as Liverpool were garbage and spent in that season when we didnât have a defence.
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Very honest post match from Conte. âItâs very difficult for us, every time we come up against a bigger club we loseâŚwe saw this against Arsenal, Man U and now NewcastleâŚwe are trying to improve step by step but managing a club like Spurs you need more time than society allows in one personâs life time.â
Thatâs thoroughly myopic and filled with recency bias, completely ignoring whom theyâve played against, or the relative injury lists (and frequency of occurrences).
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Thatâs true, they would probably be >5 points behind usâŚ
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Watching MOTD and canât stop laughing over Lloris.
I donât fathom what you base that on apart from mere wishes.
Tell you what, compared to your âthey will be 5 points behind usâ, I am comfortable in my foresight and do not feel that myopic, thank you very much. Maybe tone it down a notch, eh ? You are always agressive towards anyone even mildly critical and itâs down right a bit unseemly at times. I am not THAT critical, but I do try to be realistic compared to some.
I agree with those who say itâs too early to call, but to call me myopic, well, your comment of them being 5 points behind us⌠
Unlike your prediction, I was being sarcastic.
And you might read that as aggression, but that is just listing the facts. Feel free to read it as a personal insult if you perceive that someone suggesting corrections to your perspective is an insult.
Letâs see.
Their entire season thus far, unless Iâm much mistaken, theyâve seen few injuries. Theyâve also played mostly teams who are currently in the bottom half of the table.
Theyâve won a game against us thanks to divine refereeing intervention, at their patch.
Apart from that, the only like-for-like fixtures theyâve had, weâve won 1-0 against City while they drew 1-1. They also lost 3-1 to United while we only lost 2-1.
Where weâve played the likes of:
- Everton (11)
- Fulham (7)
- United (6)
- Forest (20)
away (positions as of this morning) for a total of 4 games with an average opponent position of 10 (or points average of 15), theyâve played:
- Bournemouth (13)
- Brentford (10)
- Crystal Palace (12)
- Leeds (18)
- Southampton (15)
5 games with an average opponent position of 13.6 (or points of 12.2)
And weâve played at home:
- Bournemouth (13)
- Brighton (9)
- Crystal Palace (12)
- City (2)
- Newcastle (4)
- West Ham (17)
for a position average of 9.5 and points average of 16.5, theyâve played:
- Aston Villa (14)
- Fulham (7)
- Leicester (16)
- Tottenham (3)
for a position average of 10 and a points average of 18.5.
Our position is largely down to our away fixtures, where we have faced significantly more challenging opponents than they have, and all the while competing with effectively a quarter to half of our squad out at any one time.
Unless you think that this situation will persist to the end of the season (i.e. that this situation is the mean), the more likely situation is that we will end up improving (i.e. regression to the mean), while they might (or might not) fall off with injuries, harder fixtures, or any other reasons.
Tell me now if you think my criticisms of myopia and recency bias are ungrounded?
Also, weâre talking about a team that finished on 61 and 69 points in the previous two seasons, the former of which was an absolutely horrendous season for us, which still left us on 69 points, 8 points ahead of them.
Even if your prior is that they have improved a lot, let me remind you that that particular shitshow of a season for us saw us with 10 points in 13 games at one point. Weâre currently 16 for 11 games.
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Not buying that. Seriously, I am really not. Sorry you spent so much timed on that list, but itâs not a convinving argument. Your entire argument is that the table is unfair but itâs too many games and too many points in play here. Even if you add 6 points to out total, we are still significantly behind the top.
I too think the situation will improve, as I have said elsewhere, but I donât think it likely that we can equalise as many points that you seem to think is likely. If we do, great, but I donât find that likely at all. Because it stipulates that we must go on extremely long runs of victories while opponents must go on very long runs of losses. This isnât very likely. So while I think, absolutely, that our situation will improve and that we will end up at least with some sort of European competition, I doubt our squad and form will be strong enough to go on incredibly long runs of wins while the fortune of others crash similarly, which would be necessary if we are to hit yout lofty bench marks.
Yes, I absolutely think your criticism is unfounded to say the least.
Weâll see where we end up, but I donât share your incredible optimism at the moment. But obviously I hope you are right.
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Itâs not unfair, it just is what it is.
Which was also true in 2020-21. 10 games, 26 points. While all the other supposedly superior teams fell apart, because simply put, you can outperform or underperform for extensive parts of the season, but itâs quite hard to do so over the whole of the season.
The flip side is the question of whether you think Arsenal can sustain the pace of 2.5 points per game. Making a similar projection as is common on here, it means that theyâre on course to pick up 96 points. Do you think thatâs likely, or are they far more likely to start losing steam somewhere around the middle? Do you think theyâre likely to go through an entire season without any significant injuries?
You havenât addressed any of my criticism directly.
I specifically mentioned that it was myopic, because it was based entirely on their season thus far, a record of 11 games. Or should I truncate it to 10 games and skip out the 2 points they dropped against Southampton to make you feel better? If this reliance on everything theyâve done in this season isnât a recency bias, then what is it?
I also specifically pointed out that theyâve played mainly against weaker teams, yet you have nothing to counter that statement, and you say my criticism is unfounded?
You also have not addressed the fact that they have had nowhere close to the number of injuries weâve had.
Why donât you just admit that youâre convinced that youâre right no matter whatever evidence there might be to the contrary?
Worth a laugh: last year at this exact time we were 2-0 up at Old Trafford en route to 5-0.