Interesting remarks about recce missions in Crimea from 2014. I was always concerned about the timing of the withdrawal from Afghan and this invasion, both within 6mths, and have always felt the West knew of this invasion when we withdrew Afghan. Some remarks in this interview seem to match that theory.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan was forced upon NATO by the US, after Trumpâs campaign promise and declaration. Biden had to follow it up. When the US decided to leave, against the wishes of many like the UK, everyone had to leave since the US stood for Force protection there. Given the long time lime of events, being a Trump campaign decision, it is highly unlikely that it is linked in any form or way.
Also, Russianâs threat of invasion, then later invasion, is Open Intelligence with a lot of satellite images discussed by many. To avoid an invasion, the US leaked like a sieve and I for one followed the Russian build up in march and may,june, almost a year before the invasion. This was open source. Remember, many were afraid Russia would invade in summer, then they withdrew but left all the ammo and equippment at dumps so they could return and implement a military invasion.
Yes I understand this, also there had been earlier pre-arranged meetings between the US and Afghans at the arrangement of the Qataris, who hosted the talks. It might simply mean that exfil was brought forward.
This is bad for obvious reasons. One of the obvious reasons is that cruise missiles are more precise than Iskander BM.
I still believe that they over-shot the target, but Russia canât just hit border areas with missiles they have low confidence of the accuracy of.
Russian missiles now landing in Poland!
2 dead apparently
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Yes, some sensationalists are already clamoring to invoke Article 5. Shit on face for Russia at G20, but Im sure Lavrov will not speak a word of truth.
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I think Poland will invoke Article 4. I also think this will carry a price for Russia in terms of perhaps more advanced weaponry to Ukraine. Poland will want a response.
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Yes this will be the outcome.
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In most NATO capitals, Article 4 has already been invoked for all practical purposes, even if the formality has not yet happened.
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Plenty has been spoken about Article 5, but what is Article 4 and what are itâs implications?
Article 5 is armed attack, Article 4 is threat to territory or security - which then calls for consultation and can lead to a joint response. Usually it has been Turkey invoking it, either because of Russia, Iraq, or Syria.
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That particular one was invoked by most of the Eastern NATO members
You have to wonder what in hellâs name the actual intended target was? It is nowhere near any of the crossing points the Russian hotheads have been demanding attacks on. For somewhere so close to Ukraine, it is remarkably hard to get to from Ukraine. It is not even particularly close to any significant Ukrainian towns, it doesnât appear to be close to any likely infrastructure targets.
Hard to avoid the conclusion that Russian cruise missiles are in fact crap. The damn thing could easily have hit Belarus.
edit: seeing text discussion of someone trying to think like a drunk Russian entering coordinates, to see if some permutation of the same numbers hits something that matters
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Russian will try its best to blame Ukraine for the missile landing in Poland
Twitterati claiming its fully intended to change the narrative and test NATOs resolve. I cannot believe either because, you cannot on the one hand see profligate errors and then all of a sudden decry Russia as master tacticians. It will result in increased AA in Ukraine, and so must be, as you say, yet another error. A huge shoot oneself in the foot to be precise.
They already have started, claiming it the remnants of a failed S300 AA missile 
Maybe damaged by AA? I donât give much credence to the fully intended. A border post would send that message and have a military effect. Dropping a warhead on some quiet Polish village isnât nearly as clear.
Imagine being poor Stoltenberg now 
The wife checked the Polish newsâŚ
Russia says its a deliberate provocation by the poles!
I have to read more to comment on what the probable actual target was. It could for instance be warehouses with western aid close to the border as an example.