So it could be Ukrainian air defence. Or Russian barrage (they have used a lot of S-300 before against ground attack). But honestly, unless launched from Belarus, I don’t think Russian S-300 have the range to impact Poland.
They are slightly different if you look closely? Where the end cap meets the cylinder, one is a bevel the other a right angle. Then the distance from the air vents to the groove on the cylinder is much shorter on one. Probably just variants in manufacture from different plants.
I cannot say. I am not that good at spotting the difference there, so must refrain from commenting.
Most news sites saying US advising PL they were fired by Russia; NATO in meeting as we write, since 20:00hrs.
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I am inclined to believe the US, as this escalation would seem to me not at all desirable for the US, and they will have hard data to support this statement that other NATO members will see. Plots of the flight path are probably already available, and with a maximum range of under 150km for most payloads, the SAM explanation has some obvious holes in it. Those photos don’t suggest a 24kg warhead, but one of the larger payloads. For most of the S-300 family, the larger warheads shorten the range significantly. The only S-300 types that can go 200km+ and carry a larger payload are the VMs, which Ukraine doesn’t have, as it was developed post-independence. I suppose it is possible they have captured and are using some.
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The part about tracking was what I did not post, but even PL has some impressive (NATO) kit at the Ukr border, and they corroborate the US position. I hadn’t considered the crater, but you seem right. Oh dear. Then intentional or Rus mistake…? Surely it will be treated as a mistake and rhetoric rather than attack response. It must be used to bring in better systems to close the skies. Ukraine need aircraft too.
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Biggest payload of that class is 150kg, which is sort of a ‘maybe’ for some of those photos - not knowing what was there before becomes more difficult.
If and when the plots become public, it would not shock me to see that it was headed toward Lviv, and got tagged with some AA that interfered with the guidance system.
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this all smacks of a giant 
from old Vladdy to the western world right in the midst of a G20 summit.
What are you going to do about it, he says. I don’t care about Ukraine and I don’t care about you. I’ll burn that country to the ground, good luck with your “reparations” bullshit.
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Likely target was a thermal power plant at Dobrotvirska - it in fact hit very close to the power line that connects Poland to Ukraine.
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What’s the meaning of this ?
None, it was response to a Ukrainian tweet I found funny.
I reckoned it 41km, but yeah, not close. Crappy guidance and/or damage from AA systems along the way seem the most likely.
The S-300 used against ground targets is a ballistic missile, not a cruise missile - so the Poles will know absolutely that it was not fired from within 180km of their border, unless it was a failed intercept. They would also have a reasonably good idea of that.
Lithuania is proposing closure of airspace over Ukraine as an Article 4 measure.
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Uuuh, not sure about that. Jesus, this is getting abit hairy now, isn’t it ?
Cuban Missile Crisis of our time, or maybe not quite there yet.
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Yeah, well, having studied history that comparison gives me no calmness or joy…
The proportionate response would be any measure that can improve the defence of Ukraine skies to preserve their energy infrastructure.
What a criminal way to wage a war, when those missiles could have been used on Ukraine military positions. Just emphasises how evil the Russian regime is.
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Russia can not even beat the Ukrainien army let alone the NATO there is noting to gain for them
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