I am some what aware of this, and I remember what you have written in the past about this, Arminius. But Canada could have placed defence orders if it was important (in their eyes). Could have bought shells for Ukraine even if it only can send 2 meagre bloody tanks (grumble, can’t believe they did not order more refurbished for Ukraine after all this time).
I realise Canada and Australia are “far away”, but their support of Ukraine is mostly in words only (Australia almost non existant support, incomparable to Canada obviously).
But of course, Canada far from the worst. Far from it. Italy, Spain worse etc. But it pointless to rank. Very few takes the war seriously enough. Very few seem to fear a Russian victory enough.
Anyway, I mentioned Canada more as a completely random example.
I am disappointed with every single Western state, including Norway. Disappointed with everyone barring Estonia and Lithuania really. No one else does enough, everyone else are politically positioning themselves and no one are willing to say honestly what it takes to produce and procure enough weaponry and munitions; and no one seems willing to pay for it; far less place orders to industry.
This is a truth with modifications of course. Some states sign significant orders, but it’s not significant in terms of an industrial war of this size, nor enough to replenish or build up own stocks.
There is just a lack of Western unity and the meetings at Ramstein have not been a success in terms of unifying participating states to jointly increase production together. And time is running out. Time favours Russia.
It’s an awful situation. There isn’t the unity, or the will, in the west to keep supplying arms for Ukraine to slog it out with Russia. It has been a war of attrition, and the sheer volume of what Russia has thrown at it will be telling in the end.
When the Israel war came along, at least as a casual observer expat in the US, that dominated the news, and along the way there has been plenty of talk from politicians about not writing Ukraine a blank check, or continuing to give it everything it needs.
The Republicans over here are playing a game, and will often try to tie help for Ukraine to their own extreme partisan wishlist, or will tend to wash their hands of it now.
Back in the day there was great clarity about Russia, and to be more specific, Putin, and what a danger he is. It seems these days he gets more acceptance, or if not quite that, a shrug of the shoulders.
His long term plan to divide the west, and wear it down, and even gain succor in some quarters, seems to be bearing fruit. It is heartbreaking.
I think the writing was on the wall the minute Hamas attacked Israel. Russia pulled a trick here via Iran/Saudi ties.
the US got the conflict it wanted, one that they could get bi-lateral support to get involved in.
Russia got the world’s eyes away from Ukraine, and now will have the upper hand as they will plow through the unsupported eastern flank. As long as they don’t do anything stupid, Ukraine will fall.
The only way this turns around for Ukraine now, is some kind of false-flag operation framing Russia for an attack on a NATO country. Even then, I doubt NATO has the brass balls to engage in this. it’s about as useless at the UN, a holiday haven for ex-politicians to retire at.
They are about the same as the Dutch army, when they go on a trip to do a drill agains others they don’t have ammunition and must shout pow, pow, I kid you not there is no ammonution for practicing …
2 of the fresh new counter battery RU radars just delivered to its army has actually been destroyed in January. One today.
Just interesting. These are a priority target for Ukraine:
To be terribly pessimistic, the second Russia started meddling in the Middle East, I think the Ukraine war was won by Russia. Israel and American politics - no, America - are so intertwined that focus on Ukraine was lost completely and will never be regained.
Knowing how Biden initially turned a blind eye to Israel, in my opinion, because of the promises he made to Jewish Americans to solidify their political support leading into the last election, and not wanting to burn that bridge in October, I will never trust he would trade his political capital in order to do the right thing and continue supporting Ukraine as the American population support begins to wane. I’m not suggesting American support is going to stop or anything but it’s going to be hard for Biden to continue justifying it as Americans lose interest. It might be a slightly different story in Europe but US is the big boy which matters.
Sorry but it’s going to only get more grim. I know this kind of talk is hated on this forum but god I think Ukraine really need to be looking at an exit strategy that will see them join NATO at the cost of some territory.
Does Ukraine have the capability to strike deep into Russia to inflict casualties on Russian soil?
It’s a horrible thought, but since their own citizens are being indiscriminately attacked, can they not inflict some serious damage the other way?
I wish no ill will to any Russian person, who is peacefully going about their business, but if their government is smashing civilians to pieces in a neighboring country, should they not feel some of the same treatment on their own doorstep? Even in Moscow?
It’s not won by Russia yet. The trajectory is bad and it looks grim, but it is no foretold conclusion. A Ukrainian victory is currently still possible if they have the will to continue sacrificing and political events in the West turns out favourable.
And I don’t frown upon pessimism myself, so don’t worry about me at least. But it’s not over and while the fat lady is in the make up room, she isn’t even on her way towards the stage yet. Ukraine can yet win, war will be long, but sure, it looks much better for Russia. Note that long wars are dynamic.
Nothing points to Russia winning in 2024.
Sometimes. With well planned drone attacks, which honestly happens relatively often. But incomparable to large scale RU missile lanches of course in volume.
Following on from your post in response to the question posed by @RedOverTheWater, is there a need for attacking Russian soil/infrastructure? I understand that there are sabotage mission’s but wasn’t there a condition with the supply of HIMARs by the US not to attack Russia directly? I guess logistics in Russian occupied territory is more of a priority?
My observation/opinion is that Drones are going to play a massive part in the outcome of the war and that is in terms of attack, reconnaissance and jamming them. With the advancement of this technology and AI, the film Terminator is becoming less fictional by the day.
