Number of deaths (and thus, of hospitalizations I suppose) doubling each week in the UK, although still at a low level. But if this trends persists, I’m afraid that we’ll not see a full Anfield before next year at the earliest… 
I’m saying they don’t give a shit. I don’t think that’s even controversial.
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We did it 3 weeks ago and we are back to red, 70% of all new cases are from people between 16 and 29, mostly unvaccinated, cheating on ways to get in with so-called proof they were not infected. Nightclub owners could not care less.
A complete fuck up and they closed up again.
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It’s just a mathematical calculation based on measures of how contagious the pathogen is. Prior estimates were in the 80-90% range, which is really really high, and practically really difficult to achieve based on the conversation above. The increased contagiousness of the Delta variant and the increased prevalence of it has pushed this even higher to the point that talking about it as a real possibility is fanciful.
The threshold is calculated as 1-(1/R0), with R0 the number of people under normal circumstances that 1 infected person will infect. The R0 of Measles is really fucking high, around 20. Ebola, for as scary as it is has a value of 2 (mostly because the symptoms are so obvious and gross that no one gets close to a contagious person). Covid absent social distancing and other mitigation measures had previously been estimated between 3-6.
So, that makes the threshold for measles about 95%, which is why we continue to have outbreaks. At the high end of the prior COVID R0 estimates, which is probably a low estimate for the current Delta driven waves, the threshold would be 84% (1-0.16)
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Yeah sure, heard about that.
But that’s only considered a fuck up if it’s not part of your strategy. Don’t want to get vaccinated? Fine, now there’s a Corona Party for you. I think that’s cleary what it comes down to.
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If true, this is a dangerous game. As we see now already with the UK numbers, it will cost more and more lives, without speaking about the increased potential of the emergence of a new variant.
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Just as a counterpoint, here in Adelaide (Australia) we have just gone into a 7 day ‘lockdown’ after just 2 confirmed cases of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Something I am pleased to see happen btw, unlike NSWs half assed efforts which have resulted in the virus spreading). Schools and non essential business closed; only permissible reasons for leaving home are for one person in family group to purchase essential food/medical supplies; caring responsibilities and medical needs; essential work and exercise up to 90m mins per day w/in 2.5km radius.
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Interesting message on the gov covid dashboard…
20 July 2021
On Thursday 22 July, vaccination uptake for the UK, nations and Scottish local authorities will be updated to use the mid-2020 population estimates.
Hmm…wonder which way that’s going to move the % for uptake of the vaccine… 
Currently 88% of all adults at least one dosed
68.8% of all adults double dosed.
The UK has reported 96 further deaths today. It’s highest daily number since 24 March this year.
Anti-vaxxers in Germany are already trying to use the UK numbers to convince people that ‘the vaccines aren’t working’…of course these are usually the same people that don’t want to do anything else against the virus either…Endless circle of stupidity…
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So much for the threat of the Beta variant
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Same for Bangladesh. The official figures are nowhere near as the actual figures. Saddest thing is, we may never know the actual figures.
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There is a really nice walk through of how the intuitive interpretation of stats can be misleading - 40% of hospitalization being from vaccinated people actually demonstrates remarkable effectiveness of the vaccine
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1417365020497883148?s=20
But you tell people 40% of people who get vaxxed still end up in hospital (an incorrect framing of the statistic, but the sort of good faith misrepresentation many people who are statistically illiterate can make) and it seems like they dont work well. Add in the sort of malice youre talking about and it becomes a mess pretty quickly.
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I don’t really understand that stat to be honest, not that tweet. What does he mean by ‘vaccinated’. Single dose, double dose, entirely immunised with the 14 days afterwards? It’s not clear at all.
And if indeed 40% of the people who get at the hospital with covid-19 (how many btw?) are entirely vaccinated, it’s an enormously high number, and asks huge questions about the efficiency of the vaccine.
Or do I miss something here?
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Just read the tweet, explains it perfectly.
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Went to the ASDA and Morrisons this evening.
Probably 80% in ASDA not wearing masks. Split 50/50 in Morrisons. There’s a sociological study in there somewhere.
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With Vallance’s correction, it’s 60% unvaccinated and therefore 40% of hospitalisations are single or double vaxxed.
If we are on 700+ hospitalisations a day, then that’s 280 people who are single or double vaxxed, and 420 per day that are unvaccinated.
But the thing is the ‘pool’ of humans the virus is most effective at hospitalising is made up mostly of vaxxed people. 12m people in the UK are over 65. Over 90% of over 65’s are double vaxxed. I know it’s not only over 65’s that get hospitalised, but the majority will be. That’s 280 hospitalisations from 10.8m vaxxed people and 420 people from 1.2m unvaxxed people hospitalised a day. The vaccines are very effective.
Clearly my numbers are generalised here but more trying to make the point about how the data can be misinterpreted. I think Vallance could probably have presented the data better in this instance.
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Are the numbers that are testing positive a worry?
I mean they are pretty large so is this an indication that vaccinated people can be/are carriers?
This for the world could be the main problem (particularly with vaccine passports) as many people in the world are still not vaccinated and nowhere near getting a vaccine. If vaccinated people can travel (and in any case people are travelling anyway) and they carry the virus this puts unvaccinated populations at risk.
This whole thing is very nationiocentric (is that a word?).Are we seeing the bigger picture?
I think this image makes the point being made really clear - what matters is not the number of total cases in each condition (vaxxed vs non-vaxxed), but the proportion of cases to non cases in each condition. The less effective the vaccine is the closer the proportion would be between the two conditions. It is not close though. Thus, the vaccines work very well.
An extension of this idea is the overwhelming majority of heart attacks occur in right handed people.
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Excellent, thanks lads! 