The German Election

Die Linke’s positions on security politics are awful and means a strenghtening of the cement around the neck of Germany, so it would be even more difficult to get the head out of the sand if they get powerful in parliament.
They have a fairy tale opposition to the Russian invasion, but obviously far better than the Knecht’s on that Wagen.

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I might be wrong, but isn’t Die Linke essentially the successor to the SED? That would make sense as to why it might have a lot of Russophiles…

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Yes. Techncially it’s the successor to the PDS (de facto successor to the SED) which then fused with a west German left split of the SPD (Lafontaine, ironically the husband of Wagenkecht now).
Though it has gotten even more complex with the split of the Wagenknecht Party, aka Russia First. At least some of the hardcore Soviet fans have gone to that. Die Linke also had quite an influx recently of very young people.
Like Magnus said, Die Linke is slightly better than them on Russia, but still largely naive.

No idea if you could follow that timeline btw. Lots of People’s front of Judea type stuff going on there.

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It is, yes. Obviously deep rooted links.
A lot of doctrinal socialists are unable to understand that contemporary Russia is as far from a Socialist state as possible. It is a common problem and tendency amongst former and current Marxist-Leninists. They have a problem, in Norway, in Germany, everywhere; to get out of their reflexisive opposition to the West; and then to automatically be sympathetic to whoever the West is having problems with.

There is a certain type of person who gets attracted to such totalitarian politics and the Black and White world view it is banner bearer for.
Ironically, these people you will find, sometimes (this is a tendency) have the strangest (but it is really not so strange) twists and turns and it is often you hear of Marxist-Leninists turning to arch conservative Chatolisicm (as in not normative) , to Salafist Islam, to fascism, even nazism. They seek the TRUTH. The single truth.

Very many Norwegian former Marxist-Leninists are staunchly pro-Putin.

I guess in Germany, these are the Wagonknecht brigade. Spiritual Truth (as in opposed to facts) is an interesting concept. I wish we had discarded that crap after 1945, but the human race ever gets back to it.

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https://x.com/ClausPeterB/status/1891967278968672338

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https://x.com/KonstantinNotz/status/1892601729134264750

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https://x.com/Der_Waeller/status/1892705364040208439

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If the polls are correct, this could end up being quite a nail-biter. Not because of the winner/chancellor, but because of the smaller parties and who will reach the 5%, which might be decisive as to which coalitions are even possible.
Regardless of personal preferences, we really need something stable at this moment.

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The logical democratic constallation would be coalition government under Mertz, which included SPD and/or Grüne. But the ideological chasm is perhaps too vast .

The alternative is something similar to the government that was (I don’t think that is too popular either and the mandate wouldd be iffy with Union so much bigger).

I hope for a non-ideological coalition government, as a shitty alternative is that Union must seek power with AFD.

But a minority government isn’t that bad always. Right now, it may be rather shitty though, given the above average sized challenges in very difficult questions ahead.

Don’t think a minority government is a realistic option. And Merz is highly, highly likely chancellor.
It’s more a question of 2 or 3 party government (technically it would be 3 or 4 party, because of that Bavarian franchise, if one wants to be pedantic).
‘Grand’ coalition is still most likely. CDU/Greens will probably not have enough seats according to the polls. If FDP and BSW get in (Linke seem to be safe), we’re most likely looking at CDU-SPD-FDP (or theoretically CDU-SPD-Greens).

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Obviously all based on the various polls. So far we haven’t really seen them being massively wrong in Germany (obviously a bit here and there, as to be expected), but who knows, crazy times and polling seems to get more difficult everwhere.
Anyway, I know people like to say stuff like that often, but this might be the most important election in post-war Germany. Certainly high up there.

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I hope the FDP disappear from existence.

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Yeah, annihilation for FDP and Wagenknecht would be something to cheer.

I hope the Greens keep a foot in the door. Don’t want the environment to be totally forgotten in the chaos.

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There is bound to be a party that fronts neo-liberalism in Germany. I don’t see the FDP annihiliated. It’s not a new party after all.
BSW is far more dangerous. Social Conservatism + economic leftism+ nationalism, gives me the fucking shivers in a really bad way.

Yeah, they’re one of the factors of unstability I was thinking of.
I’m democratic minded enough to see that there might be a need for a liberal party - in theory. In its current form they are just a problem imo.

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That’s my whole point. They’re not a liberal party if they’re collapsing the government when the AfD is on the rise, if their leader is sucking up to the fascist man-child.

I caught this on the news the other night. I’ve not heard it mentioned much outside of that, but it does rather refute the AfD narrative:

Similar story in English on Deutsche Welle:

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I guess the German people have had enough of experts, too.

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https://x.com/dw_politics/status/1892257850421809292

https://x.com/dw_politics/status/1892907874780688732

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I take all of this with a grain of salt, no idea if the polls are picking possible changes in the elctorate, e.g. underestimate AfD or other parties’ support.
But the latest polls - this realy looks razor thin as to possible coalitions. Might be a possibility that even if the FDP doesn’t make it, but the BSW does, grand coalition might fall short just a few seats. Then he might need the Greens as well, which they’ve demonised constantly.
The way it looks atm, there’s a possibility that all Merz’ shenanigans achieved is rally support for the ‘far left’ (Linke), thereby making his own possible government/coalition a lot more complicated for himself and his political agenda.

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