The election is tomorrow, right?
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Yes
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Big picture, what is the best reasonable hope for Western civilization, democracy, etc, in tomorrowās election?
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DDR Indianer-wibes mixed with, what is this exactly ?
I apologice, not very relevant. But the advertisement looks bonkers and everything is so serious, much is frightening in the world today, so a little smile canāt hurt:
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Demonizing the Green Party and declaring them to be the main enemy was so unbelievably stupid by the Union.
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Iād really want the SPD to remain the major party in Germany. Scholz isnāt a great chancelor by any means, but at least, heās not batshit-crazy. But it looks unlikely, because he has as much charisma as a dead turtle and is incapable of bringing up a true alternative vision for the future.
So, it will be the CDU with a guy at the helm who demonizes everything which is on the left spectrum of society, while openly toying with the idea of allying himself with the AfD. Iām afraid that the current pressure coming from the USA will only accelerate this horrible alliance. From where I sit, Merz looks like the typical weakling who will follow the easiest path towards power, even if it endangers the very foundations on which modern Germany has been built upon.
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Ha. Kind of a big questionā¦ Depends on what exactly you mean and who you ask I guess.
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Of course it isā¦just wondering what the realistic set of outcomes are, Hope outlined a somewhat negative possibility (CDU + AfD) as being likely. Does the SPD have much of a chance?
This is about coalitions, Merz will be chancellor unless all the polls are monumentally wrong.
I donāt think CDU+AfD is likely at this moment, though Iām a bit worried for the future. Especially if the only other coalitions that are possible are inherently difficult/unstable.
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A coalition CDU/AfD would be political suicide for Merz cause in the last two weeks he repeatedly said that this will not happen. I would not be very surprised if we had to vote again this year.
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What would be the public reaction if thereās a CDU+AfD coalition?
I mean, whoās āthe publicā? But yeah, this would set the country on fire, metaphorically and possibly literally.
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The importance of coalitions is why the ālikelyā nuance is important, and takes a fair amount of background information to understand (which I donāt really have).
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Iām sorry. Iām trying to explain as easy to understand as possible, but this shit has gotten fricking complicated, not the less because of the sheer numbers of relevant parties
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Yeah, sort of what drove my question - most of the German elections I can recall, there was a Coalition A vs. Coalition B kind of choice. This one looks like the voter choice is nowhere near as clear as that. I was just wondering if any of the discussed configurations can actually be ruled out as very improbable.
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For the moment at least (hopefully for the future) I think CDU+AFD is the least likely.
āGrand coalitionā (CDU + SPD, like we had for the majority of Merkelās chancellorship) would probably be the āeasiestā to manage and most likely - IF they can get enough seats.
If not they would need another party - most likely the Greens or the FDP (if they make the 5%).
Or theoretically try a minority government, but weāve never seen that on the federal level.
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This is the dynamic that makes it difficult to understand, because that would appear to suggest two very different coalitions.
Yeah, which is why looking at those parties at the 5% threshold (FDP, BSW and although they seem to be above that, Die Linke) might be so key to the actual political outcome.
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Why would Germans try smashing a French Police Nationale patrol car with a trolley? 
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we just canāt help it 
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