He’s probably worried about equalization payments.
Conservative messaging seems to have shifted to ‘activate the base, GOTV’ stuff rather than outreach. Not sure if that is throwing in the towel and trying to limit the damage, but it feels like it might be. Polls aren’t showing a lot of movement, though the potential Liberal gains in Alberta seem to have evaporated.
I really have to wonder whose call it was to release their costed platform 6 days before the vote, and after what appears to be a significant percentage of votes cast in the advanced balloting. This doesn’t seem to me to have been a well-run Conservative campaign, but I admit to bias - I dislike Jenni Byrne almost as much as I do Poilievre.
edit: wow, 7.3M votes cast in advance voting, up from 5.8M in the last one (2021). Total votes cast in 2021 were 17 million, or 62.6% turnout.
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I only want Poilievre to win, so the Liberals get the fuck out of office. That cannot happen fast enough, for me.
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Thoughts are with all those affected.
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Its fucked up. One of these catch and release guys by all current accounts, constant mental health occurrences and run ins with law enforcement. Canada has been way to easy on serious crime and have been left wanting when dealing with mental health issues (Major failing in “free” healthcare, not that paid healthcare does much better in this regard). There has been a huge shortage of psychiatrists.
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Election day starts!
First polls close at 7pm est. The eastern side of Canada should be a good indicator on how things are going as they are traditionally Liberal strongholds.
I don’t think they will tell us much. They are likely to be all red, unless something really unexpected happens they are already in the bank. Maybe NB will be interesting, but I expect QC is where we will start to see how strong the Liberals are
Poilievre is pretty clearly in a tough fight in his own riding, though I expect he will pull through. Shocking level of national resources deployed over the weekend in that riding by the Cons
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Are there laws against foreign election interference in Canada?
Yes, but difficult to enforce external speech. Campaign funding is by US or British standards extremely strict as well.
I suspect some Conservative staffers have winced on seeing that today. It does underscore how quiet Vance’s good friend Jamil Javani has been.
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Well, congratulations to all our Canadian friends on the new Liberal majority government I guess, especially to @Nobluff
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Definitely wont be a majority, the rest is a coin flip. I still believe its a slight cons victory, yet strangely a lib minority has more chance of saving Canada (excluding Con majority which is improbable, yet not impossible). I agree with @Arminius that the first real test is QC due to the numbers. A lot of people have suggested that the Bloc is doing better than suggested. You can basically call the election after the Ontario results are called.
I was joking, but the polling suggests otherwise:
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If it is a minority situation, I expect this will be one of the rare elections where we are waiting all the way until BC results are in. Seat projections for BC right now are really close to even. If the Bloc have a rough night, it may be decided before it hits Manitoba.
My guess is a low 170s Liberal majority. Trump’s intervention might swing that today, but seems unlikely. Conservatives have to be livid at the CBC getting carte blanche to focus on the most damaging narrative for them on a polling day that would otherwise have CBC walking on eggshells.
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All the best to Canadian reds here! May you get the government that will improve your lives. Tiny Singapore will be having our election this Saturday too.
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I mention Ontario as if there is a swing to cons, its them for the election. If it swings lib or stays same, then lib election.
I expect BC to swing cons, but will be too late to make a difference when taking Ontario results (trend) into account. The tragedy in BC will not help the lib party or ndp, and the past provincial election where the cons came from 2% to 40% to me is a positive indicator for the cons even if you take Trudeau resignation into account.
If Ontario swings to the Cons, absolutely. But there is very little sign of that. Carleton (Poilievre’s riding) is close enough they are working to save it, suggesting that riding is looking a lot more like 2015 (+3) than 2019 or 2021. If Carleton is that tight, suburban Ontario might be grim for the Conservatives.
Pontiac in QC is one of the great bellwether ridings. It is not actually a great predictor for Quebec, but the party that won Pontiac has formed government in every election other than 1979 and 2011.
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How is that so? From my understanding, BC United withdrew to avoid splitting the vote, and they didn’t increase their combined vote share by that much?
In any case, isn’t it pretty irrelevant going by province as it’s the number of ridings that matters?
BC election 2020/2024:
2020
NDP-57
LIB-28
CON-0
2024
NDP-47
CON-44
LIB-0
Current federal is roughly even for CON,NDP and LIB.
I am just using the provincial election to determine sentiment that’s still relevantly recent.
I think that’s fairly irrelevant unless their legislative assembly ridings are the same as their federal representation?
Also, as far as I can tell, BC Liberal ≠ Liberal Party of Canada, and they had 0 seats in 2024 precisely because they withdrew.
Or, you could use the available opinion polling.
EDIT: In the most recent YouGov MRP data, they have it as:
| Party | Ridings |
|---|---|
| Conservatives | 19 |
| Greens | 1 |
| Liberals | 22 |
| NDP | 1 |
Good luck to everyone.
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