I think salary caps are coming.
Jesus the idea we would sell Gomez and keep Phillips is a scary one. Phillips isnāt fit to lace Gomezās boots.
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Actually, I had the vague impression when writing my post that you were the one who put the idea in my head in the first placeā¦
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I think itās way more likely that we sell Phillips and keep Davies.
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I know this is the unreliable rumours thread so I wonāt derail it entirely, but mods feel free to move if necessary
Baseball is a Luxury tax system, ironically similar to something that UEFA recently āleaked.ā Before I get into why I like that over the salary cap model, one point Iād like to make about the salary cap system is that without a draft style amateur model in Europe it becomes incredibly difficult to redistribute the younger talent amongst clubs. This will still create a massive inequality of talent distribution. Sure we can cap wages for players, but ultimately that puts power back in the owners pockets rather than the talent. I really canāt see it happening, but then again this is Europe and not the USA. Europe is a lot better at striving for the collective good rather than the individual desire like the US.
The reason I like the luxury tax model in baseball is that it penalizes you in a tiered fashion. So year 1 may be tolerable to pay the fine that gets redistributed to the rest of the football structure; however, the following years of violation move up very steeply and very quick.
example
Year 1 violation - 22.5% of excess payroll
Year 2 violation - 30%
Year 3 violation - 40%
Years 4 and above - 50%.
I think FSG is definitely acting like player power is on the rise and waiting for some of these high profile impact signings to become free agents. These are incredibly smart sport businessmen who really run clubs thinking years in advance. I wouldnāt be surprised if we see a couple big signings next summer on frees.
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I canāt believe it has taken 25 odd years since the Bosman ruling for this to occur in a big way. Weāve only really really seen it with players at the end of their career up until now. But why wouldnāt/shouldnāt players run down contracts and demand higher salaries? Surely transfer feeās will become a thing of the past, with higher wages and shorter contracts becoming the norm.
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The fact it has been 25 years makes me wonder whether the scare of players now going on free transfers will still not lead to a significant increase in them doing so. Weāre still only talking of it happening in a very small number of cases. Mbappe is having to leave on a free for example because his club refused to sell him. A number of players this summer actively pushed to be sold rather than run their contracts down next summerā¦(again, Mbappe tried to encourage this, Camavinga did so successfully)
Alaba
Ramos
Donarumma
Messi
Aguero
Draxler (I know he extended but not until the summer)
Think Camavinga was happy to run his deal down but not sure his club could afford to let him go on a free.
Hereās a list for 2022 (again players can extend or clubs may have options in contracts)
Source: Out of contract in 2022: Best free agents available on a Bosman | FootballTransfers.com
Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Leon Goretzka (Bayern Munich)
Pedri (Barcelona)
Paul Pogba (Man Utd)
Ansu Fati (Barcelona)
Franck Kessie (AC Milan)
Paulo Dybala (Juventus)
Ousmane Dembele (Barcelona)
Corentin Tolisso (Bayern Munich)
Jeremie Boga (Sassuolo)
Isco (Real Madrid)
Sergi Roberto (Barcelona)
Federico Bernardeschi (Bayern Munich)
Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund)
Lorenzo Insigne (Napoli)
Marcelo Brozovic (Inter)
Lorenzo Pellegrini (Roma)
Boubacar Kamara (Marseille)
Niklas Sule (Bayern Munich)
Andrea Belotti (Torino)
Matthias Ginter (Borussia Monchengladbach)
Jesus Corona (Porto)
Andreas Christensen (Chelsea)
Denis Zakaria (Borussia Monchengladbach)
Andrej Kramaric (Hoffenheim)
Antonio Rudiger (Chelsea)
Alexandre Lacazette (Arsenal)
Remo Freuler (Atalanta)
Alessio Romagnoli (AC Milan)
Andel Di Maria (PSG)
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Risk to players from getting injured and then having no market for them once theyre recovered is a big reason.
But there is also an issue of how a player and a club get matched up. If players only move when they reach the end of their contract it becomes that much harder for clubs and players to both get their perfect fit. If I need a striker this season but all the strikers who meet our profile are not available for a year or two, what do you do? the reality is that transfer fees enable clubs, especially big clubs, to get the player they want when they want him.
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It was reported throught out the summer that Camavinga didnāt want to wait until next summer. I think several of that list you give are at the tail end of their careers. Messi wasnāt looking to leave but had to because of Barcaās financial situation - both parties were willing to agree a deal, they just couldnt.
The list for 2022 will be equally short by the time it rolls round I imagine as new contracts are signed or players move in the winter window. Some of them have clauses in their deals that will be activated to keep them at the current club (Fati for example, if he doesnāt get a new contract).
I think there are some individual circumstances that are leading to some of these deals happening, but I donāt see it as part of a growing pattern to change the way football as a whole works.
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Would be some retribution for the way they pursued Suarez and Coutinho if we went and took both of these off them on a free in the same summer.
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Oh I wouldnāt mind that one bit. I think Fati got the #10 so I am sure he is in line for a new deal. Though only moving Griezmann on a loan would require Barca to gamble on either revenues jumping back up massively or Atletico taking the option at the end of the year before lining up new deals for others.
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Those two names jump out at you.
What a way for Edwards to ride away into the sunsetā¦
I am not trying to say transfer fees are disappearing, I am just saying that players are starting to figure out they make a lot more money if they go on a free rather than a transfer. Drastically more money.
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maybe. There is a lot of palm greasing that happens with transfers.
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Just want to comment on a salary cap, or even a luxury tax. Itās doesnāt seem like a good enough solution to my mind. I am thinking specifically about a money-no-object club. You are Man City. The shackles are off, and there really is no financial restraint. You will just do whatever you want to do, and if buying a player actually costs $150M instead of $100M, because of the luxury tax, so be it.
There needs to be a creative way for a luxury tax to be more of a deterrent.
Roll up, roll upā¦ HERE IT IS!
If you overspend, the luxury tax is not paid in money, but instead, LEAGUE POINTS! Go mad and spend beyond your means? OK, but the next season you start with a points deficit.
As a starter for discussion, 10M = 1 point
So letās imagine Man City go nuts and overspend by 100M, they would have to start the following season on -10 points. And so onā¦
Good idea but not sure it makes much difference beyond the first season. Overspend in year one to bring in players that can be sold in future years to generate profits for buying who they then wantā¦similar to what Chelsea have achieved by having countless players on loan?
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Yeah, my effort is a first pass, and could definitely be improved!
Still, the principle feels sound. Donāt punish financial cheats with financial penalties. It is no deterrent. Instead, punish them with point deductions.
How to work that out could be refined, for sure.
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Werenāt we linked with Pellegrini this summer? Maybe a freebie for next year and put all our money into getting a forward.
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I concur.
Of course, young bloods filling the vacuum would be preferable to replacing them with former LFC players in their mid-thirties! I still think weāre in with a chance of getting Mbappe. Heās now free to choose where he goes, so letās see if he wants money, fame and almost guaranteed league titles, or does he want a āchallengeā, i.e. play for us!
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