But that is a somewhat known quantity.
Trump supporters are rarely ‘quiet’, and those who may vote for him now probably did so last election. He doesn’t appear to have a significant hidden pool of voters ready to come out for him that didnt already (similar to why claims by the far left of the labour party about how close it came to winning the 2017 election are not taken as seriously by those outside of the group).
I don’t believe for a second he really will properly quarantine himself, he can’t. He can’t do without minions around him; his ego needs constant feeding.
I thought he spent most of his time watching tv and eating cheese burgers?
He puts in a long day though. There is that.
i’m still wondering how the virus penetrated the fake tan but then again if your gob is open 99% of the time there’s no wonder.
i’m about to say something horrible here but I think the US needs this to happen. I hope he gets a bad case of it.
If he gets a mild dose you can just seem him shrugging it off as if it were nothing and continuing the rhetoric of a mild flu, while thousands continue to die around him. He’ll basically feed the COVIDdiots world wide with exactlly what they want to hear. If he gets a serious case you might hope he wake up to the reality a little.
I would suggest that Trump winning the last election - despite all polls indicating a Clinton win - somewhat suggests that a lot of people were reluctant to voice their support - at least until they got into the polling booth.
I think the fact that he has made this public at all means he has been advised that there’s some advantage to his chances next month. He would have preferred to hush it up at the expense of everyone in contact with him. Or like Hicks, he has symptoms already and the news has to be trickled out.
More pertinent this time is that the voters on the other side have access to drop boxes in sufficient numbers in swing states. And in Texas at least, it’s not looking good.
Pollsters have improved their models since the last election so are more likely to be capturing those who will vote this time round.
From what I recall, it was Trump’s ability to draw from non-voters that helped him through last time by definition that group will be smaller. He lost the popular vote but squeezed through because of the electoral college.
Second, Biden currently has twice the size of the lead that Clinton did this time of the last election. She then fell ill and had the email issue headlining the media which damaged her chances. Given the slight lead Clinton had, the Trump win fell within the polling margin of error (of about 4.5-5%).
Anyone else sense this infection story could be the Don’s last throw of the dice? He has gambled with his health for months and has had an idea of how to exploit the chaos and fall-out were it to happen. If it actually did happen…
In Pennsylvania Clinton was ahead by over 10% according to the polls. Trump ended up winning it by 1% . That is a massive error in polling data - mainly due to polls being taken too far ahead of polling day.
If Biden takes a substantial poll lead into the final week he may have a chance, but until then the polls are pretty much useless - as they were in 2016.
Given his age and physical health generally, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he suffered from complications. But i’m guessing he will be one of those people who turns out to be asymptmatic as that would be keeping in line with the rest of how 2020 is turning out.
It depends on what type of poll it is. Some types can have errors up to 13%.
Polls are only useless if you see them in absolute terms. They give odds to someone winning, just because someone is leading it doesn’t mean they are guaranteed a win, only that they have the better chance of doing so.
Let’s face it. This is all part of the Bill Gates/George Soros led coup.
Perfect disguise to not doing anymore public appearances for Trump, followed by posturing about how it was to overcome it once he’s re-elected.
Very convenient.
Wasn’t that more or less Biden’s strategy for some time? It kinda worked for him though, so maybe there’s something to it for Trump as well 
Not all polls were pointing to a Clinton win. In particular, the models that interpolate the electoral college were showing that it was going to be a lot closer than the national vote percentage. It was really only the variance in a couple of states (PA, MI) that proved surprising.
nothing is going to happen to him, so it’s just as well he croaks now
i hope she has it too, and that she and trump both…recover
But again, the polls were actually pretty good in 2016. A poll is not a predictive tool. It is a statistical estimate of the likely distribution of voters. Under certain circumstance this can be used to make a prediction on the outcome, but it is inappropriate to do so by simply picking the candidate who is ahead and saying “the poll predicts they will win” with no consideration of any other factor.
The polls were tight in many places giving them little predictive power. In most cases they were also rapidly narrowing over the final weeks making using a single point estimate (clinton up by x) an even weaker predictor than normal. In general, polls also tend to be about 2 weeks out of date by the time they are published so they are not good at picking up late movement. This was an election cycle with a lot of polling volatility with averages rapidly narrowing over the final weeks, and so that limitation in their predictive power has to be factored into your interpretation. This was an even bigger problem in this election with the sort of late breaking events that happened that they were unable to capture.
The above is not excuse for the polls, it is simply the process you need to follow to understand what a poll or set of polls is conveying. You judge a poll or set of polls by how well does it model that actual distribution, in this case it was pretty damn close. Closer than in the 2012 election in fact, but because the error was in a direction that didnt result in a surprise outcome noone remembers that.
There has been a lot of talk this time around about how pollsters have tightened up their interpretation of the white non-college educated demo, but this means they were simply being underweighted in the analysis rather than them being a demo who werent honest with pollsters and then went and voted for Trump. Basically, there are tons of known factors for why the polls had clinton with a small lead and it doesnt need the creation of this counter intuitive group of shy trump voters to explain it.