The only way I can see there being another Scottish independence referendum, would be if, after the next general election, there was a hung parliament with the SNP holding the balance of power.
Until then there is absolutely nothing the Scots can do to force the issue.
Thatâs my thinking. Labour will never agree to it, itâs suicide for them if they do, unless thereâs by some magical force of nature huge swathes of the English population (and some in Wales) open their eyes.
From an ideological perspective I think the SNP are closer to Labour than the Tories, so they would probably find it easier to form a coalition with Labour. However I suspect that pragmatism is likely to play its part with the SNP getting into bed with whichever party gives the strongest commitment to hold a referendum, to abide by the outcome, and to facilitate independence, should that be the choice of the electorate.
Agreed. Politically more Labour leaning but we strongly suspect Labour wont agree to it.
Could you imagine the outrage if they went with the Torys on the âpromiseâ of a referendum only to have the Toryâs not give it to them. I could easily see Boris or one of his cohorts doing that.
What if after the next General Election Labour found itself just behind the Conservatives. Wouldnât they be tempted to go into coalition with the SNP if that gave them the opportunity to form the next Government?
Iâve said for years that Labour, Lib Demâs, Greens, Plaid, and SNP should form an electoral pact, wipe the fucking floor with the Tories (which they would), then force through PR and embrace a new world of cooperative politics.
Quite a feasible scenario I think, but sorting that deal out would be a mighty task.
That said wouldnât Labour or the Conservatives look at the Liberals first? And I guess the Toryâs could go back to the DUP. Amazing what a bit of extra cash does for them.
Constitutionally HMG is under no obligation whats-so-ever to permit another independence referendum in Scotland. And the SNP does not have the authority to call a legally binding referendum. Only HMG can do that.
Consequently, there is nothing the SNP can do to force the issue.
After what happened the last time round, I cannot see the Liberal Democrats ever forming a coalition with the Tories. I think they would get into bed with Labour, but lets say for argumentâs sake that Labour, together with the Lib Dems, still needed the SNP to form a majority.
The Tories might not have the opportunity to form an alliance with the DUP. There is a legal requirement on the Secretary of State to hold a referendum if:
at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland
So there might not be any Irish MPs in the House of Commons should my hypothetical scenario ever arise.
Doesnât the Tories win most (90%) of their seat from England? Plaid and SNP are inconsequential in that situation and Greens too donât have much sway in most of those seats.
Also, I donât think SNP (7.4% of the seats with 3.9% of the votes) will support the notion of Proportional Representation.
Iâm not convinced that politicians wouldnât sell their souls again to get a seat in government. I could easily see the liberals doing that again under sam e lame excuse, of different times, different people etc.
But one thing is clear there are a lot of different scenarios that could play out, but not sure many of them actually help the independence seeking Scots.
One thing is clear, that there is a lot of discontent within the 4 nations of the UK at the moment. I dont see that going away without change.
I think weâll have to agree to disagree on this.
There was tremendous disagreement / anger and sense of betrayal within the Lib Dems at the time. And the collapse of the Lib Dem vote, following their participation in the coalition, left such deep and lingering wounds, that no Lib Dem leader would ever risk trusting the Tories again.