I agree; I was suggesting the only possible scenario I could see in which the SNP would get their referendum.
I’m quite certain that you are right. Unfortunately I don’t think our present electoral system gives this discontent much chance of actually achieving anything.
They can call an advisory referendum. If successful, that might open the way to getting Labour to support independence and an election deal of some sorts.
Under the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish Parliament is not permitted to pass legislation relating to matters “reserved” to Westminster, including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England”. This is generally interpreted to mean that any independence referendum would require Westminster’s approval.
However, the matter has never been tested in court, so there remains uncertainty about whether Holyrood could hold an advisory referendum without HMG’s consent.
I think preventing the holding of an advisory referendum is a no-win situation for Westminster. The real key is probably to ensure a clear question, avoiding the undefined alternative that was so critical for the Brexit outcome.
The problem is that the left of centre all pinch votes from each other, and the Tories win seats on a minority of the vote. When you see the stories winning seats on 35% of the votes with Labour getting 30 and the LDs getting 20% it’s bloody ridiculous.
All they have to do is one cycle on an electoral pact, push through AV and the Tories are in a minority forever. It’s an absolute no brainer.
You are right about the splitting votes. I had written about it few days ago. The way I see it,
Northern Ireland: Tories and Labor are non-existent. But a pact between SF, SDLP (Labor sister!), Greens, Alliance (LDP partner!) and PBP can gain few more seats.
Wales: Tories and Labor are in decline and PC, LDP & Greens are in strong(ish) position. Yes, a pact including Labor may gain few more seats here too.
Scotland: Labor has lost its (well, most of it at least) votes to SNP, Tories & LDP are holding out. A pact will guarantee some marginal seats but the overall balance will not change much.
England: It’s here where the votes of Labor & LDP comes into play against the Tories. If I’m right, a similar pact would have costed the Tories 30-40 seats in last election.
I think there would be regional pacts in NI (SDLP, Alliance, Greens), Wales (PC, LDP, Greens) and Scotland (SNP, LDP, Greens) but without a Labor-LDP pact in England Tories can’t be unseated.
Having a pact is easier said than done. It was a Liberal / Labour pact that ultimately gave Labour the momentum to become the main rival to the conservatives, over taking the Liberals in the process.
It’s teething problems however these will last a good while and with Covid on top of that I fear many small businesses will just dissappear. Also goes for Europe even if fewer. Good for the big companies though so more pressure for nasty evil stuff.