Yes, and will.
Nope, he was booed at an event prior to the 2019 election. He may even survive a leadership challenge provided enough MPâs believe the poll ratings are falling too far.
So noone laughed at Starmer?
Remember folks, donât be with the gaysâŚ
Err�!
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6 PM.
Canât get past the the nagging suspicion that this is a planned move by Borisâ team.
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Yeah I think he expects to âwinâ it now but not after the by-elections and heâs hoping to pull up stumps for 12 months while he tries various outrageous politicking schemes to regain favour.
There was as suggestion that the figure had been reached a week or so ago but they wanted to wait until after the jubilee before announcing it.
I was thinking more machiavellian (possibly an oxymoronic suggestion here). The threshold was reached because Borisâ team wanted it reached around now, i.e. through a letter or two that could be pushed through at the ârightâ/most coinvent time. A vote now, after the grand celebrations, should have the highest chance of a positive outcome for Boris, thus rubber stamping his rule till the next election and possibly beyond.
Some letters were postdated so as to trigger the threshold only after the jubilee. But I think that was more out of deference to the Queen than to help Johnson.
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Tories wonât vote him out anyway.
Not sure how the jubilee helps Johnson given the booing at the event, and when he went to Hackney to where his son works. Add that to the Wakefield by election voting intention figures and Iâm not seeing much out there to get people to vote for the PM that wouldnât be voting for him anyway.
If he does survive, then I think he could be stepping down next year as there was talk of him using that promise to buy some of his support in any no confidence vote. Holding on for one more year I think means he will have been in power longer than Gordon Brown, which is something he would like to achieve.
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Heâll get there in a monthâs time so thatâs pretty much guaranteed as the Conservatives wonât be able to conclude a leadership contest in that time.
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That sounds very âEvertonâ of you.
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Stratergically the sensible thing would be to kick him out, and for them to push Tom Tugendhat or Ben Wallace. Someone that they can contrast with Johnson. Given Ukraine someone with a miltary background. Someone with the perception bringing centre tory values back. (they dont really need to care about red wall)
My guess what will happen is they select another bullshitter like Raab, Patel or Truss 
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I think Ben Wallace would be a very good âsafeâ choice for now. Heâs obviously got a lot of credit as SoS for Defence and that would maintain the good relationship with Ukraine as well as keep a familiar face at the table for wider discussions among western allies.
Could he lead the Conservatives into the next election? Possibly; right now Iâd think heâd be too much of an unknown but a GE is over 2 years away.
Incidentally, I donât know where I stand on whether a GE should be held if the Prime Minister changes. Half of me feels it ought to happen but the other half feels that our electoral system doesnât elect the Prime Minister. That person has always been chosen by the governing party, not the electorate (even though when people vote, a large part of that is to do with who would become PM). Would be interested in genuinely apolitical views on that.
Likewise. Iâve always been willing to accept the change of PM without a GE. I donât have any strong feelings on changing that at this time despite thinking the options to replace Johnson as PM are weak.
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Iâm hoping for Patel, so I get the wall built around the coast line from Great Yarmouth to Brighton that Iâve been hoping for or Truss because, well itâs Truss - what could possibly go wrong!
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If you had asked me the question while Cameron was in charge, I would have said no election is nessisary. The UK parties and policies were relatviliy stable. If a new leader came in I would expect they would continue to execute what has been promised to the electrorate during elections.
The last 5 years have changed my mind. We have seen major swings in both political parties. Both in terms of style of leadership and actual values held. If someone is put in charge to take the country in a different direction, ethically an election should occur to provide that mandate. Starmer for example would be elected on a very different mandate to Corbyn.
The downside though would be self interest. Very few MPs would vote for a no confidence if it put their own seat at risk.
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Yes, it is situational really - that would sway my preference to a degree as well but clearly we need it to be one way or another, particularly where the governing party has a sizeable majority.
I have to say that the 3 years (nearly) that Johnsonâs been PM have been politically tumultuous. Proroguing parliament, Global pandemic, Brexit, Global energy crisis, Inflation, Ukraine war, Northern Ireland, I meanâŚfuck me. Johnson has navigated some of these fairly well and itâs impossible to say whether any other leader would have dealt with them any better. But on the main platform that got him elected, Brexit, thatâs done now. Itâs probably a forlorn hope but I want a bit of trust restored to our politics, a bit of dignity and respect for the high offices of state. Johnson is antithesis to that.
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