US Election 2024

So he’s dropped out then :joy:

So only one out of date, mildly senile candidate left in the race.

Not sure where the Democrats go from here.

Hannibal Lecter?

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Good riddance Genocide Joe

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There’s hope after all.

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Well done Joe Biden. Hardest thing in the world to stand down when you think you have more fight left in you. It’s easy to stick the boot in, but I choose to see the good in this.

He has moved the dial from certain Democrat loss (as good as) to now having a chance. Someone else will take up the fight, and we all wait to see who it will be.

If it goes straight to Kamala Harris that would seem fitting, as she is the VP and has been waiting in the wings. If it is more of an open fight, hopefully it will be done graciously, quickly, and decisively, so whoever is selected can get on with the job in hand.

Harris. Newsom. Buttiegieg.

That’s the order I see. Maybe I’m overestimating the last one.

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If it is Harris, and it seems likely, her running mate won’t be from California. Not sure who the other candidates would be, most of them will be looking at running next time (if there is one).

‘Shock decision’, ‘shock announcement’…
Color me unshocked.

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Republicans responding with outrage over a coup within the Democratic party!

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This flips Lichtman’s keys from Biden win to Trump win. So now the polls and Lichtman’s keys predict a Trump win. I always thought it was going to be a Trump win, the only doubt I had was the 13 keys, and now that’s gone.

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The only thing Trump can do in response now is to drop out himself and upend the new Dem theory of victory

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Have we heard anything about the replacement?

Will it go straight to the VP, or will there be an open process? (I’m scared to look because I am watching a recording of The Open and don’t want to know who wins!)

Sooo tempting…

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It has to go to Harris now. If the “black” vote is so important, how could you skip her for a vanilla Newsom or the like.

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Difficult to see it go to anyone but Harris as Biden has now publically backed her.

@Limiescouse explained in a reply to me why Harris was most likely - i.e retains that link to Biden’s earlier win & campaign for re-election.

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The Open what?

Oh, I see…

There is no defined process for this. The people who will decide this now are the delegates nominated to go to the convention. Almost all of those were legally committed to vote for Biden, but have now been freed from that and can vote for whomever they want. The question though is whether there will be an alternative to Harris for them to even to consider, and for that to happen someone is going to have to face reputational risk from throwing the party into even greater levels of disruption by challenging her. There is a sense of self-interest that is likely to keep the real challengers from doing that, the same way they all avoided challenging Biden in the first place.

Maybe I’m being naive in under rating the ambition and opportunism of these people, and I can even see a scenario where Harris is strengthened as a candidate by prevailing against a small but civil challenge for the nomination. But I am inclined to think that ignoring a stunt type candidate like Tulsi, the proper players are going to be pretty conscious of managing risk in what has already been a hugely risky set of moves

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They should go for Buttiegieg if for no other reason it sounds like a Ken Dodd creation.

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